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3/10 and beyond... all the waves threats


mappy
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58 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Just to be clear I'm not debating about the specifics of PSU's data about the trends and such...MY post was more about our psychological approach to snow in general. And btw notice he said that his stats are NOT predictive, just explaining wheat has happened so far.

But again, my post was more about how we are viewing all of this. Change could be permanent, or maybe it isn't. Still need to change the way we look at it!

Just ignore him.  I do.  I will engage with almost anyone no matter how much I disagree so long as they are grounded in reality and arguing in good faith.  He is either NOT grounded in reality or is not acting in good faith.  He refuses to even acknowledge there is any trend at all no matter how much evidence is provided.   He has repeatedly said things that are so utterly ridiculous and contradictory that there is no way to have a logical debate with him if he isn't operating from the same reality we are.  

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

DCA in the 50s is a different beast than DCA in the 2020s. I'm not necessarily saying that it's a 20" difference of a beast, but UHI *HAS* to play a part in that.

the built environment around DCA isn't dramatically different from 1950 to the present.  Some place like IAD?  Definitely.  But your core urban stations (DCA, NYC, etc) were already built up by the 50s.

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I absolutely don't dispute short term trends.  We have those many times over the past 20, 50 or 100 years. The inconvenient truth is that we don't have long term trends because as I said earlier, they do not exist. 

I deal in facts, not innuendo.    Yes, D.C. has had a general  7 year period of below the normal snowfall of 13.8", though last year was close at 13.2".  18-19 was a 1 year blip upward above normal at 16 .9".  Technically and factually, 6 of the last 7 years have been below normal. Previously, 2013 - 2016 was a 3 year period of above normal snowfall, 32.0", 18.3" and 22.2".

1926 - 1932 was a general 6 year period of below normal snowfall, though as in this recent short term trend it had 1 above normal year, 1929-30 at 18.1".   26-27-4.3", 27-28 11.1", 28-29 7.5", 30-31 2.5", 31-32 5.0".

These short term trends continue as they have for a long time.  If this continues for another 3 winters it will be safe to say that the trend is a very unusual long term anomaly.

I do not personally attack others no matter how much I may disagree. This should be an honest and free forum as long as excessive profanity or verbal attacks are not directed toward others.

 

 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

all of that comes at the end of March, with marginal temps and a warm nose giving you sleet instead. 

sleet would be ok.  I'm hard up after only 1.25" of snow the entire winter. At least sleet is frozen!!

Of course, I did receive 9" of snow on April 7,1971 and 7 inches on April 7, 1990.

I would be more confident with a Miller A and 1040 hp over Ontario.

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2 hours ago, pazzo83 said:

the built environment around DCA isn't dramatically different from 1950 to the present.  Some place like IAD?  Definitely.  But your core urban stations (DCA, NYC, etc) were already built up by the 50s.

I honestly can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not...?

If not, that is not even remotely accurate. Crystal City didn't even really exist until the 60s. DCA itself has undergone dramatic changes since '50.

Even the last 5-10 years has seen significant urban growth in the areas near Reagan....

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Just now, Its a Breeze said:

I honestly can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not...?

If not, that is not even remotely accurate. Crystal City didn't even really exist until the 60s. DCA itself has undergone dramatic changes since '50.

Even the last 5-10 years has seen significant urban growth in the areas near Reagan....

Arlington and Alexandria were already populated in the 1950s (albeit smaller than present day).  DC actually was larger (804k people in the 1950 census).  It's not like it was farm land around DCA in 1950.  In other words, the UHI already existed by then in and around DCA.

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3 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

Arlington and Alexandria were already populated in the 1950s (albeit smaller than present day).  DC actually was larger (804k people in the 1950 census).  It's not like it was farm land around DCA in 1950.  In other words, the UHI already existed by then in and around DCA.

Understood, but in this case, DC's population matters little compared to the amount of dense development has sprung up in the areas around National since the 50s. It existed sure, but has been exacerbated since.

DCA is just a tremendously horrible spot for official weather records anyway. In fact, I honestly can't think of a worse spot. Maybe the Blue Plains treatment area?

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30 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

Understood, but in this case, DC's population matters little compared to the amount of dense development has sprung up in the areas around National since the 50s. It existed sure, but has been exacerbated since.

DCA is just a tremendously horrible spot for official weather records anyway. In fact, I honestly can't think of a worse spot. Maybe the Blue Plains treatment area?

I used 2 locations outside the UHI to show the phenomenon is not totally a UHI issue. So this is kinda am irrelevant argument 

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4 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I looked at 2 coop sites near here, Westminster and Hanover and both were worse the last 7 years than that comparable period in the 50's.  The departure is SLIGHTLY closer than DCA so it is fair to say some of this is UHI, but looking at other non UHI locations in the area seems to bear out that this period is in fact worse than the 50's in our area even accounting for UHI.  

I haven't looked at the long term trends (frankly I don't have the time) so I may be wrong but it feels like out here west of IAD, we had several really good years in the mid 2010s.  And obviously terrible since 2016 but 2010-2016 or so had several well above average winters, and that isn't very long ago.

To be clear, I am not arguing against long term trends being down or the reasons why - it is obvious that the climate has changed - but my point is that locations west of the fall line still seem to be able to have pretty good short term periods even during the overall decline.

 

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9 minutes ago, mattskiva said:

I haven't looked at the long term trends (frankly I don't have the time) so I may be wrong but it feels like out here west of IAD, we had several really good years in the mid 2010s.  And obviously terrible since 2016 but 2010-2016 or so had several well above average winters, and that isn't very long ago.

To be clear, I am not arguing against long term trends being down or the reasons why - it is obvious that the climate has changed - but my point is that locations west of the fall line still seem to be able to have pretty good short term periods even during the overall decline.

 

Keep the faith my good friend. You will be fine over the next several years. These short term cycles have repeatedly occurred over the past 100 years.

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1 hour ago, mattskiva said:

I haven't looked at the long term trends (frankly I don't have the time) so I may be wrong but it feels like out here west of IAD, we had several really good years in the mid 2010s.  And obviously terrible since 2016 but 2010-2016 or so had several well above average winters, and that isn't very long ago.

To be clear, I am not arguing against long term trends being down or the reasons why - it is obvious that the climate has changed - but my point is that locations west of the fall line still seem to be able to have pretty good short term periods even during the overall decline.

 

The periods I was comparing were 2017-2023 and the previous worst 7 year period on record 1950-1956.  We most definitely will still get a snowy winter or snowier period, that wasn’t my argument.  But the snowy and non snowy periods have been getting less snowy. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

The periods I was comparing were 2017-2023 and the previous worst 7 year period on record 1950-1956.  We most definitely will still get a snowy winter or snowier period, that wasn’t my argument.  But the snowy and non snowy periods have been getting less snowy. 

Yeah, averages and statistics prove that. 

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20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Stats are stats, but using DCA as the data is very sketchy. No way it can be representative of the whole district.

So use BWI.
2017-2024: 64”.
1950-1957 84.1”. 

Im not trying to misrepresent the data or skew anything. The most recent 7 years are the least snowy at all 3 official recording stations. And the least snowy at the 3 non official non UHI locations I looked at to examine if it might be a UHI issue.  

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21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So use BWI.
2017-2024: 64”.
1950-1957 84.1”. 

Im not trying to misrepresent the data or skew anything. The most recent 7 years are the least snowy at all 3 official recording stations. And the least snowy at the 3 non official non UHI locations I looked at to examine if it might be a UHI issue.  

I know you aren’t trying to deceive. I just mean DCAis like not having stats at all.

I still think too many conclusions are being drawn

 

 

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35 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The periods I was comparing were 2017-2023 and the previous worst 7 year period on record 1950-1956.  We most definitely will still get a snowy winter or snowier period, that wasn’t my argument.  But the snowy and non snowy periods have been getting less snowy. 

The snow periods have been getting less snowy?

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The snowy periods are less snowy, and the non-snowy periods are more snowy. Not sure how we can move on from this one.

Now see I was under the impression the snow periods were more snow (give 2010-16)...and that since we haven't had a snowy period since we're still not sure, lol

Edit: Wait did I miss some sarcasm here?

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15 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I know you aren’t trying to deceive. I just mean DCAis like not having stats at all.

I still think too many conclusions are being drawn

 

 

Yeah it's kind of a waste of time to draw conclusions from scientific data. Truthiness is always better.

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