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3/10 and beyond... all the waves threats


mappy
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2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd argue that it's stastically very unlikely...Takes a lot to go less than an inch 2 years in a row. A cartopper even would be more than 0, lol

I remember playing this game back in 2020. You were sure it HAD to get better.  You cited statistics like this.
 

Then you got like 7” the next year, 10” last year and nothing this year. So…3 years later I ask. Has it REALLY gotten better?  

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1 hour ago, fujiwara79 said:

Yes, but past performance also doesn't predict future results.  The probability of getting 0" next winter would be the same regardless of whether we had 0.4" or 50" this winter.

Oh god this again. I wasted an hour of my life years ago proving that the results from one season had no statistically significant impact on the chances of snow the next winter.  And it resulted in a bunch of “but that doesn’t feel right” replies.  I gave up on that. Math is hard. 

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh god this again. I wasted an hour of my life years ago proving that the results from one season had no statistically significant impact on the chances of snow the next winter.  And it resulted in a bunch of “but that doesn’t feel right” replies.  I gave up on that. Math is hard. 

Yes it is - especially when you get into laplace transforms, hebert functions and higher level diffy Q.  Wish I could forget those agonizing elements of higher education.  

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I remember playing this game back in 2020. You were sure it HAD to get better.  You cited statistics like this.
 

Then you got like 7” the next year, 10” last year and nothing this year. So…3 years later I ask. Has it REALLY gotten better?  

Man I was talking about the odds of having less than 0.2 inches of snow (thereby being numerically "worse") as being more unlikely. Not talking about our struggles overall!

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7 hours ago, mattie g said:

Trying to advance science is a waste of neither time nor resources.

Lol, trying to forecast weather months in advance to serve no purpose other than to drive futures energy prices is a total waste of public money. But, I’ll play along. Tell me how the average tax paying citizen benefits in March to know what the weather might be in December. I’m willing to alter my position if a case can be made.

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5 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

Oh god this again. I wasted an hour of my life years ago proving that the results from one season had no statistically significant impact on the chances of snow the next winter.  And it resulted in a bunch of “but that doesn’t feel right” replies.  I gave up on that. Math is hard. 

Not for GPT4

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23 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

here's something for you guys to drool over for a bit. the CanSIPS is basically forecasting a high-end moderate Modoki that would have an insane February. ideal tropical forcing, neutral PDO, Pacific is mint, and there's a very active STJ along with blocking

nice to see, at least

cansips_ssta_noice_global_12.thumb.png.ca37d11167f2c9ed8c9ee32794fb4df0.pngcansips_chi200_global_12.thumb.png.0e65342cac7efa45cf7c0ba91d0fd7a7.pngcansips_z500a_namer_12.thumb.png.1f2ae81bcbba6c993814eb2f55152e4e.pngcansips_apcpna_month_us_12.thumb.png.bcbd45f5def955ce29f59840b3b5a19f.png

 

"The storm is 10 months out" is the new "the storm is 10 days out"

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12 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Lol, trying to forecast weather months in advance to serve no purpose other than to drive futures energy prices is a total waste of public money. But, I’ll play along. Tell me how the average tax paying citizen benefits in March to know what the weather might be in December. I’m willing to alter my position if a case can be made.

The average tax-paying citizen may not directly benefit, but I think you're being naïve if you believe that oil futures (or other market-driven concerns) are the only thing driving the attempt at long-range forecasting.

On-topic: How dem waves coming?

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

The average tax-paying citizen may not directly benefit, but I think you're being naïve if you believe that oil futures (or other market-driven concerns) are the only thing driving the attempt at long-range forecasting.

On-topic: How dem waves coming?

Not too good. I want some waves of warmth and sunshine

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6 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I know….up to go to work anyway. 1.5 hour trip on the train, might as well look at models.

I deactivated my WB account a week ago. I'll reactivate it for Dec to track our initial snow threats with a CP based Nino established. :weenie:

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5 hours ago, Heisy said:

CMC/Icon flatten the wave out too much. GFS/euro camp have steadily been showing a stronger shortwave take shape as it heads east under the block. We’ll see what euro shows tonight, fun to imagine. There’s a non-0% shot at some flakes at least


.

Gfs just came in flatter and weaker 

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