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3/10 and beyond... all the waves threats


mappy
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6 minutes ago, mappy said:

Yell at me later if it doesn't pan out. But looks good for some of us on Friday and hope still remains for next week. 

Meh, when things are already at rock bottom for the winter, creating a thread can't hurt anyone 

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Been pretty obvious to me that the coastal plain has no shot with wave 2, my eyes are already set towards 18th-20th to see if anything can undercut the ridge and take advantage of some confluence. Battling climo. Then it’s spring and we can forget about this god awful winter

78408becd430d5284e28f59eaa2b48d7.jpg


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CMC has a beautifully tracked rainstorm

There’s no Hp anywhere close and an ULL in the lakes, it’s not really a snow setup for anyone outside the far Nw and high terrain.

GFS shows this crap again with energy diving in the southwest and ridge ridge in the middle of the country, think winter might be over if GFS is right.
488be72df977483f29321a3d4589b0df.jpg


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10 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Meh, when things are already at rock bottom for the winter, creating a thread can't hurt anyone 

some of us may actually see snow in 2 days, a thread was needed. 

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

@Ji the pattern isn’t the problem. The eps nailed the pattern. 

this was the period we’ve been watching for weeks and it still looks great from a longwave pattern pov 

A6AD0CB0-C79D-47A9-AD29-F56E647230B0.thumb.png.1db6f8cdc22b281eab32db3257d53133.png

That looks similar to a composite of our biggest March snowstorms 

D8B6EBC4-9729-41A4-96B7-1561B7E43817.gif.a49194854689096b66e0c95ee1e36c5c.gif

Look at the specific threat next week

2E0917D0-46D2-4FB2-85B0-D622DBA9AD3E.thumb.png.996e8f009869f5268bc34c0ef0158b0a.png

Baffin Block, 50/50, trough going neutral as it approaches the TN valley, ridge in the mountain west, trough just off the west coast. That is a perfect longwave pattern for a big snowstorm here. It’s literally exactly what has lead to every big March snow.  And all guidance indicated the storm will track south of us. But it’s just too warm.

And don’t blame March, this same thing has happened in other months lately too.   And then the excuse was to blame the pac because we didn’t have an EPO ridge dumping arctic air at us.  But that isn’t actually the right longwave pattern to get snow.  And I don’t know how many times I have to say that.  90% of our snow didn’t come from arctic air masses.  The best longwave pattern to get big snowstorms here isn’t a very cold one!  A huge epo ridge dumps arctic air but that longwave configuration promotes a ridge in the east.  Big storms will cut.  The only way we can snow in an epo driven pattern is to hope a bunch of weaker waves eject east pulling the boundary south and pray to get lucky and have one of those boundary waves clip us.  But that is never going to be a path to either a MECS+ storm or a truly snowy 30”+ winter. Those both come from blocking patterns with marginally cold domestic air.  The best we can hope for from an epo pattern is table scraps and if we get lucky maybe a median snowfall year like last winter for example.  We will never get a truly big storm or big year that way!  

The pattern isn’t the problem. It’s just too warm. You figure out why!  
 

 

Not sure I would refer to that small ridge there with an odd orientation as a Baffin block lol. The low pressure showing up in the 50-50 region is a function of the progressive nature of the pattern, and the way lows are tracking. It isn't a real block with a quasi stationary 50-50 sitting there, but rather a parade of lows tracking through that space and continuing on into the NA. There really isn't a 'blocked flow'. Not a bad pattern and it could still work with luck and timing (and a little cold air). At least that's the way I see it.

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8 minutes ago, Heisy said:


There’s no Hp anywhere close and an ULL in the lakes, it’s not really a snow setup for anyone outside the far Nw and high terrain.

GFS shows this crap again with energy diving in the southwest and ridge ridge in the middle of the country, think winter might be over if GFS is right.
488be72df977483f29321a3d4589b0df.jpg


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Without any arctic airmass in sight, we usually need a favorable H5 track.  I don't think it's absolutely necessary for an ULL to track under/over our location, but without having sufficient cold in place, we need to be on the colder side of the upper levels or it's a dice roll...and it's even a dice roll with precip as I think that introduces the potential for dry slotting.  I'm still learning...I could have some of these details wrong, but long story short, we usually need the northern stream to dig further and/or phase earlier.  With that said...both waves are close enough for at least snow tv, so might as well track 'em.

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31 minutes ago, Heisy said:


There’s no Hp anywhere close and an ULL in the lakes, it’s not really a snow setup for anyone outside the far Nw and high terrain.

GFS shows this crap again with energy diving in the southwest and ridge ridge in the middle of the country, think winter might be over if GFS is right.
488be72df977483f29321a3d4589b0df.jpg


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Models were way over amplified out west just a few days ago.  Probably will correct again given the pattern over the top.  

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59 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not sure I would refer to that small ridge there with an odd orientation as a Baffin block lol. The low pressure showing up in the 50-50 region is a function of the progressive nature of the pattern, and the way lows are tracking. It isn't a real block with a quasi stationary 50-50 sitting there, but rather a parade of lows tracking through that space and continuing on into the NA. There really isn't a 'blocked flow'. Not a bad pattern and it could still work with luck and timing (and a little cold air). At least that's the way I see it.

We might just have to respectfully disagree on this one.  Is the "block" the strongest block ever no.  But its legit, its not just a heat bubble that originated from the mid latitudes like we've seen a lot lately.  It originated from an east based block that retrograded and will slowly degrade.  That's actually the best progression usually.  As for the progressive nature, its not a split flow nino pattern no.  But the pattern is blocky imo.  Two straight waves are going to stall along the east coast and amplify and spin for 2 days before being forced east under the flow.   Given how far north this first wave started without a blocked flow it would cut to Hudson Bay.  Lastly... more cold added to the equation both forces everything south some AND amplifies that scenario.  More cold increases the baroclinic energy and we get a more amplified solution.  Short of this being a split flow nino pattern the only thing I think that is missing from making this better is colder air.  If there was a colder airmass I bet you one of these waves coming up would bomb out where we need.  But that is just my opinion and there is no way to prove that.  

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The gfs performance with the storm Friday has been horrendous. Maybe the other models as well but geez.

I think the following system still has a chance to be something. 
 

The gfs run was really about as bed as you could hope for heading into mid March. Wall to wall chilly to cold, little snow. My imagination says it will be terrible if it actually happens.

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13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The gfs performance with the storm Friday has been horrendous. Maybe the other models as well but geez.

Well, we won't know for sure until Friday :)

For the past few days though, it's variability hasn't really been all that different than any of the other models... (I looked at a week's worth of 0 and 12zs)

 

Congrats to all who may actually see pity flakes on Friday. #notbitteratall

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Just now, Its a Breeze said:

Well, we won't know for sure until Friday :)

For the past few days though, it's variability hasn't really been all that different than any of the other models... (I looked at a week's worth of 0 and 12zs)

 

Congrats to all who may actually see pity flakes on Friday. #notbitteratall

I’m going more with the whole period from about 12 days forward. Look at its forecast from less than 3 days ago for Friday morning. It had the low on the Iowa Minnesota border 

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yeah I think these have a chance, location dependent of course.

I, however, can’t get excited until the NAM is on board. 

you will take your 0.3 and love it. 

sn10_acc-imp.us_state_de_md.png

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