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3/10 and beyond... all the waves threats


mappy
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34 minutes ago, Ji said:

How bad is this winter? I was watching this YouTube program on this couple camping in this winter storm and 90% of the precip was sleet. No joke

Base state.  It’s new.  And not a new hope.  It’s the deathstar

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@Terpeast I wanted to illustrate my point regarding our exchange a few days ago.... yes the Aleutian ridge is the main problem...but my point is... how do we mitigate an Aleutian ridge to get snow in years where that is a permanent feature?  We had a jet extension into the EPO domain with an extremely -AO/NAO twice this winter and both times it did absolutely nothing to mitigate the SER effect of the pacific patter.  That used to be how we got snow when the pacific isn't in a favorable configuration so my question is...when we get a season where there is crap pacific like this year...how do we get snow?  

We can't afford to just chalk every season that features an Aleutian ridge off as a total and complete fail loss.  An Aleutian ridge is a predominant permanent feature during a -PDO, and a -PDO cycle is a reality about half the time.  People are acting like this -PDO we are in now means we just can't get snow...but my point is we've had -PDO cycles before and it did manage to snow.  Yes slightly less than during +PDO cycles...but it was nothing like this last 7 years.  The worst part is the previous -PDO cycles that had 7 year periods that were close to this bad there was a convergence of a -PDO and an extreme +AO.  That is NOT the case now...yea we've had a hostile pacific but the high latitudes have actually been pretty favorable much of the time and yet its done us no good at all.  

Let me illustrate my point... this is the composite of 12 above normal snowfall seasons from 1949 to 1980.  These made up actually the vast majority of our snowy seasons during that period.  Look at the pacific! 

snowycomps.png.5d0a517d8ce08b74430031817f78aaee.png

DC got above normal snow in all 12 of those seasons with the mean h5 above!  So why are we acting like an Aleutian ridge means we have a SER from hell and no chance of snow?  And here is my point...and why we can't afford to just accept that... if you remove those 12 seasons from that period, our snowfall mean for that whole period, 30 years, a whole climo period...becomes as dreadful as its been the last 7 years.  We would only have had 6 above normal snowfall seasons in the whole 32 years if you remove all those seasons where it snowed a lot despite a bad pacific base state.   

I am not disagreeing with you that the reason for the SER is predominantly what is going on in the Pacific...but in the past there were ways to compensate and still give us snow even in that pattern.  But lately nothing seems to work, when there is an Aleutian ridge we torch no matter what else is going on. 

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@Terpeast my post above also highlights what I was saying, that I fear our snow climo has been degrading more than we know because it was masked by the last +PDO cycle.  Before 1980 we had a lot of snowy -PDO seasons.  Since 1980 a -PDO season has almost always been a complete disaster.  But that trend was masked by the fact we were in a +PDO most of the time since then so it didn't matter as much.  But if we go back into another period where we have a -PDO most of the time like from 1945-1980 what would that mean?  

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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

No way to know, it’s cyclical but not at predictable intervals. It’s was negative almost 80% of the time from 1945-1980 though.  It was then positive 70% from 1981-2016.  It’s been mostly negative since. 

Dang that is a loooong cycle. Like literally a quarter of a life-time. If we gotta wait for another 20 years for that to change in order to have an easier time getting snow, that's long enough to either lose hair or turn grey, lol Anywhere in the country that actually does WELL in a -PDO?

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32 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang that is a loooong cycle. Like literally a quarter of a life-time. If we gotta wait for another 20 years for that to change in order to get snow, that's long enough to either lose hair or turn grey, lol Anywhere in the country that actually does WELL in a -PDO?

You might as well except the fact they you've witnessed your last 6 inch plus snowfall. It's entirely over! I'll be lucky to average 10 inches a year here in Manchester. Probably should shut down the board during winter going forward.  :lol: 

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44 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang that is a loooong cycle. Like literally a quarter of a life-time. If we gotta wait for another 20 years for that to change in order to get snow, that's long enough to either lose hair or turn grey, lol Anywhere in the country that actually does WELL in a -PDO?

Apparently California, Nevada, and Utah, since they're setting snow records every day.

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6 hours ago, HighStakes said:

You might as well except the fact they you've witnessed your last 6 inch plus snowfall. It's entirely over! I'll be lucky to average 10 inches a year here in Manchester. Probably should shut down the board during winter going forward.  :lol: 

Man I ain't mean it like that...I guess I should said needing to wait to have a better, +PDO chance of snow. But I mean if the -PDO hurts us in general, then yeah maybe we do struggle more who knows?

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Tbh I feel myself losing interest...I'll bet this board goes the way of the SE forum if we continue to have winters like the last 7 years. I don't know about anybody else, but I came here and was drawn to the science of it for the snow. Without that, or with it becoming increasingly difficult and even less of a ROI than it was in what used to be a "bad" year before this drought.

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49 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Tbh I feel myself losing interest...I'll bet this board goes the way of the SE forum if we continue to have winters like the last 7 years. I don't know about anybody else, but I came here and was drawn to the science of it for the snow. Without that, or with it becoming increasingly difficult and even less of a ROI than it was in what used to be a "bad" year before this drought.

you say that, but wait until we get an onslaught of cutoffs like the west has been getting recently. what goes around comes around 

there has been plenty of discussion about how climate change is making it harder for the MA to get consistent snow, but what I can say with certainty is that when it rains, it pours. put Jan 2016 in this winter and BWI gets a 30 burger

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7 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you say that, but wait until we get an onslaught of cutoffs like the west has been getting recently. what goes around comes around 

there has been plenty of discussion about how climate change is making it harder for the MA to get consistent snow, but what I can say with certainty is that when it rains, it pours. put Jan 2016 in this winter and BWI gets a 30 burger

If you remove the blizzard from 2016, I had more snow this year than that year. It was a crap winter with a fluke.

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2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

If you remove the blizzard from 2016, I had more snow this year than that year. It was a crap winter with a fluke.

Scary thing is it was a crap winter for much the same reason...there were several other perfect track storms that winter...but it was just too warm.  

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9 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you say that, but wait until we get an onslaught of cutoffs like the west has been getting recently. what goes around comes around 

there has been plenty of discussion about how climate change is making it harder for the MA to get consistent snow, but what I can say with certainty is that when it rains, it pours. put Jan 2016 in this winter and BWI gets a 30 burger

But if that onslaught only happens once or twice a decade and the rest of the time is mostly snowless dreg horrible periods, it's not worth the investment of time to track every winter and get your hopes up every season.  We have already lost several regulars who decided its just not worth tracking anymore and they simply pop in when there is snow eminent but the rest of the time they are gone.  I am starting to think they are right...it just doesn't snow often enough anymore to be worth tracking all winter long anymore.  The fact is we are wasting our time the vast majority of the time lately.  

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18 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dang that is a loooong cycle. Like literally a quarter of a life-time. If we gotta wait for another 20 years for that to change in order to have an easier time getting snow, that's long enough to either lose hair or turn grey, lol Anywhere in the country that actually does WELL in a -PDO?

We used to be able to do ok in a -PDO.  We've had some blockbuster -PDO seasons.  1962, 1966 and 1979 were all -PDO seasons with huge snowfall totals in our area.  But notice...none of them are recently.  The problem is that over the last 30 years or so a -PDO almost always leads to a horrible snow season.  

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11 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Tbh I feel myself losing interest...I'll bet this board goes the way of the SE forum if we continue to have winters like the last 7 years. I don't know about anybody else, but I came here and was drawn to the science of it for the snow. Without that, or with it becoming increasingly difficult and even less of a ROI than it was in what used to be a "bad" year before this drought.

When I started at NASA-Goddard in the late 1980s there was still an ice skating club and a sign telling you whether the pond was safe for skating.  I believe the last time any skating occurred there was December 1989.  It was years before it was cold enough to skate there again and by then the club and sign were just memories.   I'm probably misremembering but I believe the last good skating weather was February 2015. 

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12 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Tbh I feel myself losing interest...I'll bet this board goes the way of the SE forum if we continue to have winters like the last 7 years. I don't know about anybody else, but I came here and was drawn to the science of it for the snow. Without that, or with it becoming increasingly difficult and even less of a ROI than it was in what used to be a "bad" year before this drought.

Nah, just move further south, lol

Last year was above normal with a 13"er. The 2019 season was well above average as well. Ya'll are too far north!

 

Edit to add: This "drought" started after 3 above average seasons in a row. Do you know how rare that is?? '14, '15, and '16 were not that long ago :)

For us at least, this year completes the balance. 10 years. 5 above average. 5 below.

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Winter of 2015-16 was an awful winter but since we had one HECS we seem to remember that whole winter fondly for some reason.  I remember seeing mosquitoes in December 2015 because it was downright muggy and tropical for the entire month.  Our last decent winter was 2014-15.  8 years ago.

If we're headed towards a Super-Nino then next winter will be terrible.  A slightly increased chance of a HECS doesn't make up for the awfulness of Super-Ninos.

 

 

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3 hours ago, fujiwara79 said:

Winter of 2015-16 was an awful winter but since we had one HECS we seem to remember that whole winter fondly for some reason.  I remember seeing mosquitoes in December 2015 because it was downright muggy and tropical for the entire month.  Our last decent winter was 2014-15.  8 years ago.

If we're headed towards a Super-Nino then next winter will be terrible.  A slightly increased chance of a HECS doesn't make up for the awfulness of Super-Ninos.

 

 

I don’t think we’re getting a super nino. -pdo/-pna will put the brakes on that. Maybe +1.5 to 1.7 at most. We may not even get out of neutral territory once we get past Spring. 

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1 hour ago, Its a Breeze said:

The December miss (for all the northern folks) would have pushed it to the 'great' category....

 

Miss.jpg

I remember that, it was sad what happened north. 

I'll throw my numbers up for the last 10/11 years and folks can take it for what it is. Of course, one spot doesn't equal another, so there is that too.

2012/13  25.9

2013/14 41.1

2014/15 33.7

2015/16 33.4

2016.17 6.4

2017/18 21.5

2018/19 35.2

2019/20 3.9

2020/21 23.3

2021/22 19.5

2022/23 2.2

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1 hour ago, Its a Breeze said:

The December miss (for all the northern folks) would have pushed it to the 'great' category....

 

Miss.jpg

there is so much bad luck that we lose out on. I know people think im joking @psuhoffmanbut we are in a really terrible location.

We are too far south for the Miller B's or clippers that are very common

We are too far North for those juicy southern sliders like in the picture above.

we are too far west for those bomb cyclones

we are far too east for clippers in general as even when they track our way, the mountains eat them up.

its takes perfect scenarios to get snow. We usually need CAD that stays locked in place. I know @psuhoffmanthinks its too warm but i think our location is a bigger hinderance than temps. Even the awful year of 2001-02...Norfolk had a 9 inch snowstorm because we were too northwest

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20 minutes ago, Ji said:

there is so much bad luck that we lose out on. I know people think im joking @psuhoffmanbut we are in a really terrible location.

We are too far south for the Miller B's or clippers that are very common

We are too far North for those juicy southern sliders like in the picture above.

we are too far west for those bomb cyclones

we are far too east for clippers in general as even when they track our way, the mountains eat them up.

its takes perfect scenarios to get snow. We usually need CAD that stays locked in place. I know @psuhoffmanthinks its too warm but i think our location is a bigger hinderance than temps. Even the awful year of 2001-02...Norfolk had a 9 inch snowstorm because we were too northwest

Everything you say is true, but I am comparing our snowfall now to our snowfall in the past. Not another location. All those issues existed then too but we still snowed more than lately. We never snowed as much as Philly or NY or Elkins WV, those limiting factors you mention were always a problem. But that’s a different issue. 

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