buckeye

btw, the bolded DID end up happening too. Do I know ILN or do I know ILN!

In about 10 days we should see a +nao +ao -pna and the mjo ready to tour the warm phases. #torch-tracking #forch #2012

congrats to the cincy and ohio river valley folks! Was really hoping this would have been an i-70 special, but not in the cards. Amazing how the north trend only happens for us when it comes with a warm tongue and a changeover. I picked up about 2.5" just northeast of CMH.

that's crazy, I live about 8 miles on a straightline E, NE from there and picked up around 2.5". Hate to say it, but the fcking euro did a good job. GFS scked yet again. Lightest, most powdery snow I've seen in a long time too. This morning I was actually glad we didn't get a crap load....my blower is dead probably from it sitting in my garage for 3 years collecting cobwebs.

Snowing moderate roads covered

Flurries finally

Most of the short term models this morning didn’t have snow coming in until about 7 to 8. That looks like it’ll be about right. I’m actually more concerned with the shield looking kind of ragged andbroken up to our west.

It’s a game of inches here, literally. I think it’s equal chances that we could get 2 inches or 8 inches. I’ll be watching radar and seeing how many hours of virga we’re gonna get. A common theme that the hrrr and nam have is what looks like the leading edge of snow moving in around 3pm that becomes a head fake and dries out before it gets here and then finally punches thru between 7 and 8. its hard to believe we have 9 more hours to go with this low thick cloud deck combined with the radar, but we’ll see. lets face it, this is how we do snow storms here….always on the edge, either north or south.

12z hrrr do we believe?

Since the current storm has gone from model watching to radar watching, we turn to the next threat in under a week. to my novice eyes this looks like it’s a few tweaks from being something special for our sub. As it stands now it’s favoring a later phase and becomes a New England bomb.

hrrr 18z

actually about the same after looking at snowfall map

the nam is refusing to budge, in fact it appears it might have nudged north and keeps the low alive longer into s. WV

Ha! I nailed it actually I’ve been reading iln discussions for so many years It becomes easy to guess what they’re gonna do. Even nailed the 3 to 6 inches. Maybe I should quit my day job Now let’s see if I’m right and they end up switching Franklin county over to a winter storm warning once the snow starts. That’s another thing they seem to do quite a bit of, Most of our winter storm warnings aren’t a result of a watch going to a warning they are usually advisories going to warnings.

on a lighter note, both the euro and gfs have snow moving back in by 156hr. It's kind of an unusual set up with a low to our north and a positively tilted trough... ...what could possible go wrong