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3/10 and beyond... all the waves threats


mappy
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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Work for who?  It has actually been 5 anomalous -NAOs without producing much if any snow here since we had the last affective one in 2018.  I wrote about it back after the December fail that one of the reasons for our snow drought over the last 7 years is that blocking is not working at the same rate it used to.  It's still too small a sample though to say its more than just a random thing.  But combined with some other unsettling trends its worrying.  

the retrograding block in Feb 2021 produced a historic blizzard for NYC and surrounding areas. was just a bit too far north for most of you guys, but N MD still got significant snow

20210130-20210203-4.93.jpg

I'm very curious to see what a legit Nino will do. seems like the potential for a moderate Nino is increasing

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the retrograding block in Feb 2021 produced a historic blizzard for NYC and surrounding areas. was just a bit too far north for most of you guys, but N MD still got significant snow

20210130-20210203-4.93.jpg

I'm very curious to see what a legit Nino will do. seems like the potential for a moderate Nino is increasing

I hate that storm. It was such a tease.

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3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the retrograding block in Feb 2021 produced a historic blizzard for NYC and surrounding areas. was just a bit too far north for most of you guys, but N MD still got significant snow

20210130-20210203-4.93.jpg

I'm very curious to see what a legit Nino will do. seems like the potential for a moderate Nino is increasing

 

That was a great storm for the ski areas in WV.

 

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11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the retrograding block in Feb 2021 produced a historic blizzard for NYC and surrounding areas. was just a bit too far north for most of you guys, but N MD still got significant snow

20210130-20210203-4.93.jpg

I'm very curious to see what a legit Nino will do. seems like the potential for a moderate Nino is increasing

I said for us. 2021 ended up much below normal snow in DC and Balt despite extreme blocking for about 6 weeks in prime climo. That is definitely not producing. 

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25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Work for who?  It has actually been 5 anomalous -NAOs without producing much if any snow here since we had the last affective one in 2018.  I wrote about it back after the December fail that one of the reasons for our snow drought over the last 7 years is that blocking is not working at the same rate it used to.  It's still too small a sample though to say its more than just a random thing.  But combined with some other unsettling trends its worrying.  

I concur on this. something definitely amiss anymore.  Original thinking was missing 50-50 along with deep western Trough. However, seems to be more to it than that. Possibly a combination of said factor's along with the Atlantic SST State. Deepness of western Trough this season I'm sure played a part. The current MJO Phase I think may play a part suppressing the System next week.

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I’ll be doing my end of season analysis soon but the main take away is I am way too optimistic. I predicted below normal snow and we got none. I got excited exactly one time for the possibility of a snowstorm and we got no storms. So I was 100% too optimistic and hopeful. In short I was a huge weenie.
 

In the coming years I will do my best to be more pessimistic so that I can offer you all the realistic accurate analysis you deserve. 

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59 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Whatever. 18Z GFS lines us western folks up for a small front end thump the last week of March to end this disaster of a winter. I am sitting here looking at Doug Kammerer doing his forecast and  wanting to cuss him out in all honesty. 

Doug K. Was actually to aggressive with his snow forecast. :lol:

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43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The boundary layer is warming fastest. Those of us with elevation are suffering less. The UHI obviously is suffering the most. 

You and I were both wrong about the winter.  Now, your wrong again about elevation.

Canaan Heights, W.Va. at 3715 ft. elevation,  with an average annual 160 inches of snow had the lowest snowfall this winter in the last 20 years with only 61 inches.  Yes, I know that 38% would give D.C. 5 inches of snow but it is safe to say that Canaan Heights also suffered a snow drought this winter.

Please don't be more pessimistic next winter. That would be a huge negative for so many, including yourself.

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I find it interesting that it's basically the entire eastern half of the country struggling the past several winters, not just our area. 

In fact, Maryland is 9th on the list of states with negative departure from average snowfall the past 4 winters. 

 

Screenshot_20230222_141950_Twitter~2.jpg

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1 hour ago, stormy said:

You and I were both wrong about the winter.  Now, your wrong again about elevation.

Canaan Heights, W.Va. at 3715 ft. elevation,  with an average annual 160 inches of snow had the lowest snowfall this winter in the last 20 years with only 61 inches.  Yes, I know that 38% would give D.C. 5 inches of snow but it is safe to say that Canaan Heights also suffered a snow drought this winter.

Please don't be more pessimistic next winter. That would be a huge negative for so many, including yourself.

Maybe someday you’ll make a post worth reading. Unfortunately I don’t have the patience so I’ll never see it since you’ll be on my ignore list. 

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2 hours ago, Steve25 said:

I find it interesting that it's basically the entire eastern half of the country struggling the past several winters, not just our area. 

In fact, Maryland is 9th on the list of states with negative departure from average snowfall the past 4 winters. 

 

Screenshot_20230222_141950_Twitter~2.jpg

Keep in mind that’s not a departure from normal as a %. Places like DC can’t have large numerical deficits because they only avg 14” a year compared to somewhere like Deep Creek that averages over 100”. So even if they are less below avg in terms of % they can have a larger numerical deficit over time. 

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16 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the wave amplifying in the Pacific crushed the ridge in the SW US. what a surprise

ezgif-3-b3952eb199.thumb.gif.a680efeaa4b947f8312d4f13f6f0accd.gif

This is the consistent mistake the models have made all year. It has one solution in the day 8-10 range that quickly reverses around day 7-6. A consistent error could be programmed out I would think.

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It wasn’t much below for many of us though.

2021 was an Above normal snow season just a little bit to your north in Harrisburg, PA.

We got around 36 & our average is near 30.

I’m not trying to start anything by posting about southern PA in here, but I’m just pointing out that a decent Winter in 2021 was just barely to your north.

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10 hours ago, Steve25 said:

I find it interesting that it's basically the entire eastern half of the country struggling the past several winters, not just our area. 

In fact, Maryland is 9th on the list of states with negative departure from average snowfall the past 4 winters. 

 

Screenshot_20230222_141950_Twitter~2.jpg

This perfectly illustrates the huge departure from normal in the mountains of W.Va.

Percentages would have been more user friendly but this gets the job done.

Thanks for posting this!

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