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3/10 and beyond... all the waves threats


mappy
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46 minutes ago, coastal front said:

That’s exactly where we want it. I think this suppression fear is way over blown considering not 1 storm this year hit south of us. 

I am not so sure its being suppressed as it is being kicked out...it doesn't look like a smooth slide SE as if there was too much confluence more like an abrupt push...maybe from the western low kicking it out...the better solutions from few days ago had it develop quicker...as mentioned no two events are alike...the being too warm part is the common theme not the track of the lows

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

I am not so sure its being suppressed as it is being kicked out...it doesn't look like a smooth slide SE as if there was too much confluence more like an abrupt push...maybe from the western low kicking it out...the better solutions from few days ago had it develop quicker...as mentioned no two events are alike...the being too warm part is the common theme not the track of the lows

Outside of a strong low with an ideal track, there is no chance of accumulating snow for the lowlands.

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Outside of a strong low with an ideal track, there is no chance of accumulating snow for the lowlands.

Exactly.

Last nights more SE runs were partly a result from the PAC wave behind ours speeding up. This speeds up our waveand doesn’t give it space to amplify. Still have a shot, but for snow near the cities we need a very strong low. Night Time helps too. Just another way we may end up failing this year….


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Probably not favorable though! Still too progressive and the Pacific just never wants to cooporate.
 

We haven’t been failing because of the pac this month though. It’s been the NS. The pac hasn’t been ideal, but it also hasn’t been hostile the past couple of weeks either. We have seen tons of snowstorms over the years with a negative or neutral PNA. The fails lately have been because of the NS.

Still time for this one to improve but if we keep our expectations low we won’t be disappointed
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WB 0Z Euro is a suppressed mess compared to 12Z.  Lucy is getting off the bench…
 
 
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192 hours away lol. 90+% of storms this year and in this pattern too have trended further north. Ask NYC. They were teed up for a sizable snowstorm on most models until 24-36 hours before yesterdays event. Hell, it looked like we could get hit 6 days ago by yesterdays event. There’s a ton of time left. We’re talking about a storm 6-7 days out. The difference between the storm sliding out to sea south of us and running up the coast comes down to wave spacing in this case. Some crazy shift at h5 isn’t needed to make this work.

Your pessimism is completely understandable given our luck this year, but I wouldn’t count us out yet. Especially inland areas.
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23 minutes ago, Heisy said:

…Good news is we’re still far enough out to see changes.

 

5 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Still time for this one to improve but if we keep our expectations low we won’t be disappointed

Given that with the countless other storms we have tracked this year, at no point have conditions improved so that any changes were for the better as we moved closer to an event and now, as we move steadily to a harsher seasonal climate, this is the level of optimism that I wish for all of humanity....

 

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@Heisy  the next pac wave hasn't really trended that much faster...it did trend significantly more amplified at 6z v previous runs...and it's slightly faster...but the bigger problem is the SS wave is a little slower which narrows the window between the two NS waves.  But here is the bigger issue with that...and one we have run into in the few split flow blocking regimes we have had lately (this killed us several times in January 2021 for example) is the awful thermals of the mid latitude airmass stuck under the blocking...means we need such a suppressive northerly flow that it ends up suppressing the storm also.  The reason the SS wave is slowing down is the increased confluence in the flow behind the first NS wave.  We have been celebrating that trend because we know cold is going to be iffy at best and so we wanted that...but there has been a correlated slowing of the SS wave as that trend happens that has resulted in a suppressed solution.  Basically...our path is so narrow because with such a marginal airmass we need so much northerly flow to get enough cold down here...that it becomes too suppressive for a SS storm to amplify at our latitude.  Yes part of that problem right now is the time of year.  But we have also had that problem in mid winter.  January 2021 we had a couple waves where we had a great split flow longwave pattern but the airmass was putrid and we had this same equation...we were rooting for more confluence and we got it...but both waves ended up suppressed and torn to shreds by the flow even though we were barely cold enough to get snow even had the storm not been suppressed.  For us to have a good chance for any given storm to work...the airmass has to be cold enough to survive some southerly flow ahead of the wave.  If we need the flow to be out of the north to be cold enough...that usually isn't going to work because in a split flow that is going to suppress a SS wave 90% of the time.  

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1 hour ago, jayyy said:


192 hours away lol. 90+% of storms this year and in this pattern too have trended further north. Ask NYC. They were teed up for a sizable snowstorm on most models until 24-36 hours before yesterdays event. Hell, it looked like we could get hit 6 days ago by yesterdays event. There’s a ton of time left. We’re talking about a storm 6-7 days out. The difference between the storm sliding out to sea south of us and running up the coast comes down to wave spacing in this case. Some crazy shift at h5 isn’t needed to make this work.

Your pessimism is completely understandable given our luck this year, but I wouldn’t count us out yet. Especially inland areas.

Not really

The Nam ( 3 runs ) and the Euro has several inches for NYC  

Other than that , the other models didn't really show anything. 

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59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Heisy  the next pac wave hasn't really trended that much faster...it did trend significantly more amplified at 6z v previous runs...and it's slightly faster...but the bigger problem is the SS wave is a little slower which narrows the window between the two NS waves.  But here is the bigger issue with that...and one we have run into in the few split flow blocking regimes we have had lately (this killed us several times in January 2021 for example) is the awful thermals of the mid latitude airmass stuck under the blocking...means we need such a suppressive northerly flow that it ends up suppressing the storm also.  The reason the SS wave is slowing down is the increased confluence in the flow behind the first NS wave.  We have been celebrating that trend because we know cold is going to be iffy at best and so we wanted that...but there has been a correlated slowing of the SS wave as that trend happens that has resulted in a suppressed solution.  Basically...our path is so narrow because with such a marginal airmass we need so much northerly flow to get enough cold down here...that it becomes too suppressive for a SS storm to amplify at our latitude.  Yes part of that problem right now is the time of year.  But we have also had that problem in mid winter.  January 2021 we had a couple waves where we had a great split flow longwave pattern but the airmass was putrid and we had this same equation...we were rooting for more confluence and we got it...but both waves ended up suppressed and torn to shreds by the flow even though we were barely cold enough to get snow even had the storm not been suppressed.  For us to have a good chance for any given storm to work...the airmass has to be cold enough to survive some southerly flow ahead of the wave.  If we need the flow to be out of the north to be cold enough...that usually isn't going to work because in a split flow that is going to suppress a SS wave 90% of the time.  

Question is...what is this gonna look like in a niño? I mean dang of we got a split flow now...

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Warm/wet, cold/dry...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2023031506&fh=120

Next week's system either looks suppressed/fringed or we get a cutter from a low forming after the high retreats.  It just seems like we need the Pacific to chill out before we can get a new, longer duration pattern that would actually work in our favor.  Would also be nice to see a blocking pattern establish itself earlier next year so that enough cold can build over Canada.  These transient high pressure systems haven't been working.  And where are the clippers?  Having those is an obvious sign that the northern stream is even capable of digging far enough south to provide us the cold and storm tracks we need.

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29 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Warm/wet, cold/dry...

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslpa&runtime=2023031506&fh=120

Next week's system either looks suppressed/fringed or we get a cutter from a low forming after the high retreats.  It just seems like we need the Pacific to chill out before we can get a new, longer duration pattern that would actually work in our favor.  Would also be nice to see a blocking pattern establish itself earlier next year so that enough cold can build over Canada.  These transient high pressure systems haven't been working.  And where are the clippers?  Having those is an obvious sign that the northern stream is even capable of digging far enough south to provide us the cold and storm tracks we need.

If by chill you mean the pac jet stop being amplified with waves racing into N America I don’t think we will see much of that ever because it’s an effect of the expanded Hadley cell compressing the flow and increasing the jet. That seems to be a new permanent base state due to…something. 

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22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If by chill you mean the pac jet stop being amplified with waves racing into N America I don’t think we will see much of that ever because it’s an effect of the expanded Hadley cell compressing the flow and increasing the jet. That seems to be a new permanent base state due to…something. 

I'm not sure you gotta dance around it any more man. It's hitting us right in the face...Hey I need to find a picture of that dang "Hadley cell" so I can put it on a punching bag...smh It has become an object of meteorological disdain!!! Hadley badley affects cold--BOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

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36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If by chill you mean the pac jet stop being amplified with waves racing into N America I don’t think we will see much of that ever because it’s an effect of the expanded Hadley cell compressing the flow and increasing the jet. That seems to be a new permanent base state due to…something. 

Now you're gonna make me do more research lol.  The only thing I'd caution against is beating the base state drum too much because, as recently as last year, we had a few decent snowstorms in the region.  They weren't widespread mecs/hecs, but compared to this winter, 21/22 is looking better than it felt at the time.  I agree with the general idea, but I'm not sold on things changing that quickly.  I think this winter was a perfect (non)storm of a dud...similar to how Feb '10 was about as close as it will get to Siberia around here.

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