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3/10 and beyond... all the waves threats


mappy
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2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Disappointing but not surprising.  I guess this is better than a wound up storm that gave the mountains 2 feet and us 2 inches of rain.  We will try again next year….

actually its not....id rather have a storm that gives the mountain 2 feet of snow

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32 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Now you're gonna make me do more research lol.  The only thing I'd caution against is beating the base state drum too much because, as recently as last year, we had a few decent snowstorms in the region.  They weren't widespread mecs/hecs, but compared to this winter, 21/22 is looking better than it felt at the time.  I agree with the general idea, but I'm not sold on things changing that quickly.  I think this winter was a perfect (non)storm of a dud...similar to how Feb '10 was about as close as it will get to Siberia around here.

They were progressive waves in a fast pac flow. We just had cold and got lucky. 

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My greatest snow drought in the last 44 years before this year was 31 years ago back in 91-92 when I received 3.05". That was a + 1.7 El Nino winter.  The following winter of 92-93 I skyrocketed from 21 inches below the normal of 24 inches to 11 inches above normal at 35 inches!!  The snowy winter of 92-93 was a +0.1 neutral winter.

Be careful what you pray for.

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1 minute ago, stormy said:

My greatest snow drought in the last 44 years before this year was 31 years ago back in 91-92 when I received 3.05". That was a + 1.7 El Nino winter.  The following winter of 92-93 I skyrocketed from 21 inches below the normal of 24 inches to 11 inches above normal at 35 inches!!  The snowy winter of 92-93 was a +0.1 neutral winter.

Be careful what you pray for.

Not surprising. Some ninos just don’t play out well. Post-nino neutral winters have been good for us, afaik, while post-nina neutrals have been awful. 

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16 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Amazing how the W trough just keeps pinwheeling out there. Tahoe is going to get buried alive. 

I decided to start following some of the snow plow people on YouTube and can finally understand too much snow. It is a foreign concept to me until I see what these guys are doing every day! Incredible 

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two highly anomalous, retrograding -NAOs and nearly nothing to show. I have never seen anything like it... this winter has been an exercise in futility

both patterns produced very big storms, but the devil was in the details. what a cursed winter. if we get another one of these we're gonna cash in. no way 3 in a row can be this ineffectual

also, the -NAO is not overrated in terms of big storm potential... it is the main index that controls whether you can get a 12"+ storm or just a nickel/dime event due to the way it modulates the pattern over the N Atl

compday.PkYUHYuXC8.gif.1abfc84967d336b2dfd504942411415b.gifcompday.OOmUpxHLGz.gif.37be43cb37f09eb4e93c5010d3791a5c.gif

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Not really
The Nam ( 3 runs ) and the Euro has several inches for NYC  
Other than that , the other models didn't really show anything. 

What? The Ukie and Canadian showed snowstorms as well. Euro GFS showed big hits for the lower Hudson valley for days. Things fell apart for NYC metro big time within the final 48 hours.
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What a difference in one day.  Big lesson for me this year is to see if we can get a specific threat inside 5 days and on more than one model, otherwise don’t take it seriously.  WB 12Z EURO compared to yesterday.
81D0192C-B375-486B-A50B-3C51D533CF53.thumb.png.e076ee3103c20b6520fca310b01f4739.png
931AA6CC-3C9E-4930-816F-39FC5E77B45A.thumb.png.521987cfdb0e664ebeeb13625b5240af.png

An inland low surrounded by 4 highs, what could go wrong


.
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57 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

two highly anomalous, retrograding -NAOs and nearly nothing to show. I have never seen anything like it... this winter has been an exercise in futility

both patterns produced very big storms, but the devil was in the details. what a cursed winter. if we get another one of these we're gonna cash in. no way 3 in a row can be this ineffectual

also, the -NAO is not overrated in terms of big storm potential... it is the main index that controls whether you can get a 12"+ storm or just a nickel/dime event due to the way it modulates the pattern over the N Atl

compday.PkYUHYuXC8.gif.1abfc84967d336b2dfd504942411415b.gifcompday.OOmUpxHLGz.gif.37be43cb37f09eb4e93c5010d3791a5c.gif

Work for who?  It has actually been 5 anomalous -NAOs without producing much if any snow here since we had the last affective one in 2018.  I wrote about it back after the December fail that one of the reasons for our snow drought over the last 7 years is that blocking is not working at the same rate it used to.  It's still too small a sample though to say its more than just a random thing.  But combined with some other unsettling trends its worrying.  

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