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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


stormtracker
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3 hours ago, IronTy said:

We need a thread to quantify how bad this winter is.  Sure we've relegated ourselves to getting zero snow, but what makes it the worst beyond that?  A warm spring like 2012 might be seen as a good thing once weve given up the chances of snow.  So is it 40deg and clouds/rain that makes it the worst ever?   No snow and 70deg days aren't so bad.  But no snow and 50deg cloudy days make me want to jump off the Annapolis bridge.  

Naw do it here then someone will see 5 new pages and get excited just to find it’s a discussion about how bad things are. 

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It would be something else if we manage highs in the 20s Saturday and rain Monday, as depicted on the GFS.  Might as well just cancel winter had that point, though considering the Euro basically has no storm whatsoever I don't know what to expect.  Hopefully, we can weasel our way into some kind of winter this week while we're on the cold side of the boundary.

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Weeklies torch February from 11/12th onward. March 1 on there’s a little hint at colder air available, but pac pattern still looks meh. This is maybe the best pattern during the entire run that I could find…pretty much more of the same of what we’ve been dealing with

Barring a miracle it’s shit the blinds time.

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dfd624bec1192b6b8e6e10efdd5a6907.jpg


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13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Every time the pattern has looked good on the ensembles it’s pretty much turned to crap. So why is it everyone just buys a bad looking pattern?

Persistence, going with the warmer/less favorable look has been pretty reliable so far this entire winter. As for February itself, we've seen the -PNA/SE Ridge look persist in 5 of the 6 past instances (Feb 2021 being the only exception due to a stoutly negative AO/NAO), and so it's not far-fetched to think that the guidance might end up pretty spot on with it showing basically that exact warm Feb look. Remains to be seen. As for attempting to be more optimistic, even our warmest Februaries during that stretch (Feb 17, 18, and 20) had at least 1 or more snow threats for NC/VA, so maybe we can get lucky. It's just hard to count on.

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34 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Every time the pattern has looked good on the ensembles it’s pretty much turned to crap. So why is it everyone just buys a bad looking pattern?

Simple, the base state. Unstoppable the last three years and getting stronger. Any questions please direct to psu. 

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5 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

unfortunately we're due for some summer blow torches.  DCA (amazingly) hasn't hit 100 since 2016.

As long as we have some decent thunderstorms.  There's nothing like an all night rumbling episode of thunderstorm activity.  The only thing that tops that is being at sea in the tropics.

I'm OK with no snow and  above normal.  It's irritating like a hangnail.  But no snow and frigid is like a splinter in your foot with no time to take it out and having to walk ten miles.  Uphill.

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2 hours ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

It’s gonna be annoying if get some dumb 2.3 inches of slop in March that is instantly incinerated by sun.  I am officially rooting for a proper shutout of 0.0.  

You know we do that well, lol It seems like there was a winter several years ago where we were heading for the futility record...but then got some March slop that got it up to like 2 inches, lol I mean it's unfortunate to even be in the running for that record, but hey ya nay as well go for it if it's there :lol: But again, we could end up like a bad team in position to get the #1 overall pick as long as they lose the last game...but then ends up winning their last game instead, lol

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11 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Most of these systems have even brought rain into SNE. CT has something like 0-4 inches on the season south to north. This is awful for everyone not in interior / NNE, and even most of them are well below averages. 

That part of it to me seems more anomalous. SNE has not had the problems we've had down here the last 7 years...So I don't know if that's "base state" or if things even for them have been declining.

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That part of it to me seems more anomalous. SNE has not had the problems we've had down here the last 7 years...So I don't know if that's "base state" or if things even for them have been declining.

Or maybe it’s just some bad luck.  Moisture and cold never linked up. It could be years before it’s this bad again.  We won’t know without data that spans longer than one bad stretch.  I hope. 

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