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January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


stormtracker
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20 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Base state. The new trendy term.

What was the base state late 80’s early 90’s.

Isnt the drum busted by now?

No, the drum is not busted, the tom tom drums are beating to a continuation of the warmer results in the East.    

Not sure why you want to bring up the 80's and 90's. It is clearly evident the West Pac has changed and the MJO hyper warm phase is in place,  not to mention other factors including the NW Atlantic warm pool.    

 

 

 

 

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22 hours ago, Its a Breeze said:

I mean, aren't we still technically still recovering from the last ice age? :)  What if...snowy periods are the anomaly.

Aren't we on basically the same latitude as places like Sacramento, Lisbon, Athens?

Again, what is the point?  There were warmer climate periods in the past.  Maybe we are cycling into another warmer period on a longer time scale.  That does not change the fact it is getting warmer right now compared to the periods we are comparing it too which is the more recent past.  And so what if it was super warm at some point in time hundreds of years before I was born...is that supposed to make me feel any better about getting less snow now?  

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33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Again, what is the point?  There were warmer climate periods in the past.  Maybe we are cycling into another warmer period on a longer time scale.  That does not change the fact it is getting warmer right now compared to the periods we are comparing it too which is the more recent past.  And so what if it was super warm at some point in time hundreds of years before I was born...is that supposed to make me feel any better about getting less snow now?  

it was not suppose to be warm hundreds of years ago because we didnt have planes,cars and trains polluting the atmosphere. So i dont buy any historical log that there were warm winters back in the day

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1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Again, what is the point?  There were warmer climate periods in the past.  Maybe we are cycling into another warmer period on a longer time scale.  That does not change the fact it is getting warmer right now compared to the periods we are comparing it too which is the more recent past.  And so what if it was super warm at some point in time hundreds of years before I was born...is that supposed to make me feel any better about getting less snow now?  

Only for context. And no, it doesn't make anyone (who loves snow) feel good. We've been trying to compare what we feel is anomalous to the norm, when it's quite possibly the opposite in the grand scheme of things.

"it was not suppose to be warm hundreds of years ago because we didnt have planes,cars and trains polluting the atmosphere."

And that's the thing. If we're looking in that long term context, then....it WAS supposed to be warmer. This still is pretty much the coldest the earth has ever been. Cold isn't the "normal", warm is...in that context.

 

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2 hours ago, Its a Breeze said:

Only for context. And no, it doesn't make anyone (who loves snow) feel good. We've been trying to compare what we feel is anomalous to the norm, when it's quite possibly the opposite in the grand scheme of things.

"it was not suppose to be warm hundreds of years ago because we didnt have planes,cars and trains polluting the atmosphere."

And that's the thing. If we're looking in that long term context, then....it WAS supposed to be warmer. This still is pretty much the coldest the earth has ever been. Cold isn't the "normal", warm is...in that context.

 

human norms and expectations are not set on that timescale.  We base them on our experiences and the more recent relevant past.  Even if we had records boing back millions of years we wouldn't be basing our current expectations on previous climate periods from hundreds of years before anyone today was live.  

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