Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,542
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    happyweather
    Newest Member
    happyweather
    Joined

January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

RGEM has been insanely consistent, while other models keep waffling run to run, so I’m curious what its handling differently versus other models.

Not saying it’s right.. especially being on an island with the ICON…but curious nonetheless. For you seasoned gurus in here, what leads to its better outcome for the area?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

probably one of the most interesting synoptic setups we've had this winter, slow + amp everything down a bit and you get an awesome setup. we have a beast of a 50/50 low and if we can slow + amp everything just a bit, definitely gonna be worth watchingimage.thumb.png.262e986a08ab34c9cdf046979be470d3.png

Worth watching but I think that 50/50 isn’t exactly at 50/50. Little too far N. Would need the shortwave to take an almost perfect track or see that trend S idk


.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Heisy said:


Worth watching but I think that 50/50 isn’t exactly at 50/50. Little too far N. Would need the shortwave to take an almost perfect track or see that trend S idk


.

Yeah it's the retreating TPV lobe, and the cold HP associated with it is off the NE coast at that point. Still a bit of damming left behind, but with the flow around the backside of that high and the low to the NW, the airmass is quickly modifying. A well timed phase between the NS energy and developing coastal low would probably work for the interior (Canadian is close to this) but the progressive flow favors that occurring too late for the MA. The EPS has the southern wave sliding off the SE coast. Still far enough out for timing/placement of features to change.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Someone should start a thread for the puny midweek wave. Looks like a decent chance for an inch or so across some of the area, ignoring the Euro ofc. :whistle:

Nice try. I’m not tarnishing my perfect 0-0 record for storm threads.

edited to add that lwx touched on the possibility.

Another wave of low pressure and upper-level disturbance will pass by to the south Tuesday night. Model guidance still diverges on how strong this system will be, and consequently how much precipitation will develop in the colder air. It will be colder Tuesday night of course, so if precipitation develops there can be some light snow accumulation across much of the area. This will continue to be monitored. Will continue with the forecast that suggests a coating of snow can accumulate, but kept pops at chance levels for now given the uncertainty as to whether or not it will precipitate.”

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Nice try. I’m not tarnishing my perfect 0-0 record for storm threads.

edited to add that lwx touched on the possibility.

Another wave of low pressure and upper-level disturbance will pass by to the south Tuesday night. Model guidance still diverges on how strong this system will be, and consequently how much precipitation will develop in the colder air. It will be colder Tuesday night of course, so if precipitation develops there can be some light snow accumulation across much of the area. This will continue to be monitored. Will continue with the forecast that suggests a coating of snow can accumulate, but kept pops at chance levels for now given the uncertainty as to whether or not it will precipitate.”

Snippet from Mount Holly morning AFD-

Accumulation wise, potential exists for a coating up to a couple inches or so with the best chances for accumulating snow being over interior portions of Delmarva and interior southern NJ (S/SE of Philly). Again, it needs to be stressed that forecast confidence is lower than average and if the wave is weaker and farther south there will be little to no snow accumulation while if it`s farther north much of eastern PA, NJ and central/northern Delmarva could get 1-3 inches of snow.

 

SO, 0-3 inches. I'm pretty sure it will be closer to the zero.

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

Someone should start a thread for the puny midweek wave. Looks like a decent chance for an inch or so across some of the area, ignoring the Euro ofc. :whistle:

When I started really digging into what the ensembles were actually hinting at, when this was still like 12 days out, shockingly they were showing exactly what this ended up being.  The reason the 1" probabilities were always way higher than the 3" even with a fairly high mean some runs was that the guidance was always saying our area had a decent chance of like 1" somewhere around here from that initial wave, but that while a few outlier members showed some huge 8" plus dump from the second wave which skewed the mean the truth was the vast majority of guidance was always a miss with wave 2.  The pattern now in the short to medium range still looks exactly like it did really when it was the super long range.  Pretty amazing guidance win. 

Sometimes the guidance is just wrong...and we always notice, so its worth pointing out when it nails something...even when its not necessarily what we want.  

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is probably the last time I am wasting my time on this period.  If future runs identify a tangible threat period I will start tracking that but as of now the threat of anything significant in the coming period is dead.  There is still some threat of an inch or two in the area with the wave this week but that is best handled by operational and meso models at this point not ensembles so there is no point doing this anymore.  

0z 1/30/23 combined ensemble bwi snow probabilities through 0z Feb 6

1": 21%

3": 4%

6": 3%

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

150 - 159...lol, would be our biggest snow of the season...don't get excited...thats not saying much

Blurb from LWX on that one...

Come Saturday, the trough/vortex will move into Maritime Canada with
height rises locally. As an incoming trough moves through the Ohio
Valley, the interaction of the northern and southern stream energy
will be key to see if there is any precipitation/storm threat Sunday
into Monday. Have maintained low end chance POPs for most with some
wintry potential.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

If we're lucky maybe we will get a perfect track and....

6516d48a-fe74-4576-bb3c-1ba6e689340f.thumb.gif.c3b8f20827c0bbcdb57998d8693b9852.gif

FUCK 

Yeah, no kidding!  Another perfect track rain storm!

Seems like the cold air coming in behind the front associated with the wave in Canada doesn't come in fast enough.  The storm of interest that rains on us is moving in sync with the one in Canada, and only after it's gone does the colder air come in as the high in the upper midwest pushes east.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned this topic

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...