Hurricane Ian

[canderson]

Any surge reports from Sarasota? Family there and I can’t reach, they’re on the water. 

[KoalaBeer]

35 minutes ago, Hotair said:

You are correct. I shouldn’t have said underwater.  They’ve been crushed with high winds but the storm surge is not what fort Myers is experiencing 

 

edit:  this is the video I had based my statement on.  It claimed to be from punta gorda 

https://twitter.com/YaCelacanto/status/1575247806889136143?s=20&t=10p9wRsEoX2GAPuBpEq5IQ

Im so confused by this post. Storm surge is exactly what Fort Myers is experiencing. Punta Gorda got blasted by those backside eyewall winds but looks like they avoided significant surge. 
 

Also that video you posted has “City of Naples” written on the side of the door of the fire truck. People need to stop trusting these twitter posts from random accounts without verification. 

[Wmsptwx]

5 minutes ago, canderson said:

Any surge reports from Sarasota? Family there and I can’t reach, they’re on the water. 

Think they dodged the worst, but still had some bad weather and flooding for sure.

[KoalaBeer]

6 minutes ago, canderson said:

Any surge reports from Sarasota? Family there and I can’t reach, they’re on the water. 

Haven’t seen much from there. Looking at obs winds were out of the N or NE all day so surge shouldn’t of been an issue. They got some hurricane force gusts however.

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KSRQ.html

[TPAwx]

1.8 million in Florida have power out

[canderson]

5 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said:

Think they dodged the worst, but still had some bad weather and flooding for sure.

 

2 minutes ago, KoalaBeer said:

Haven’t seen much from there. Looking at obs winds were out of the N or NE all day so surge shouldn’t of been an issue. They got some hurricane force gusts however.

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KSRQ.html

Thanks - I knew they had strong winds all day. I got video from them around 11 am of the ocean being sucked away from their dock (it was WILD) but nothing since and it appears cell service is dead for them.  

[Wmsptwx]

3 minutes ago, canderson said:

 

Thanks - I knew they had strong winds all day. I got video from them around 11 am of the ocean being sucked away from their dock (it was WILD) but nothing since and it appears cell service is dead for them.  

Yeah I think cell service is tanked in that whole corridor! But pretty certain they made out okay!

[HoarfrostHubb]

From Mike Seidel

 

[smokeybandit]

That precip shield seems to be completely stationary.

[Wmsptwx]

2 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

That precip shield seems to be completely stationary.

Freshwater flooding will be big issue.

[lee59]

Daytona, still quite a distance from the center of Ian, reporting 41mph sustained and 53 mph gust.

[Chambana]

SevereStudios is playing archived footage from Sanibel Island as Ian came ashore, it’s chills down your spine. Wow. 

[Nibor]

[HoarfrostHubb]

Sunset on Ian

 

[olafminesaw]

Yellow is 14", white 20"

[NavarreDon]

Congrats to the men & women @ the NHC!

.

[Maxwell03]

This storm delivered some of the most jarring footage in years. Reporters and lay persons always come off prone to hyperbole in these situations but there is no embellishing what we saw today. This was the real deal. 

[Wannabehippie]

9:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 28
Location: 27.3°N 81.6°W
Moving: NNE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 965 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Pretty impressive precipitation bands N of Ian's center.  Should be some incredible rain totals the next 24 hours.

[StormChaser4Life]

11 minutes ago, sakau2007 said:

why does the nhc overstate the wind intensity of these storms?

up until a few minutes ago, they had this thing as 115mph cat 3. that would imply gusts to 125-130+. where are these winds occurring? i haven’t seen any observations close to that in many hours.  i understand you aren’t necessarily going to capture the absolute strongest wind, but i would think you would see sustained winds somewhere over 100, right? 

i’m skeptical sustained winds were ever close to 150 at landfall, but whatever. 

You are rarely ever going to see those measurements on land for many reasons. Most weather instruments fail before being able to reach those speeds, there often isn't weather stations in the areas that get the highest winds, and friction of land slows wind so always will be highest over water. NHC wasn't wrong with their intensity, you just won't see many reports of those high end winds but the damage will reflect it. There wasn't a ton with Michael up in that cat 4-5 range but look what it did....

[TradeWinds]

This convergence zone over Orlando is producing high rain rates and wind. MCO last hour is 37 sustained and 60+ gusts. I'm seeing lightning and hearing thunder. 

[MattPetrulli]

18z Euro continuing the trend of bringing a Cat 1 ashore Friday in Carolinas. 

[sakau2007]

2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

You are rarely ever going to see those measurements on land for many reasons. Most weather instruments fail before being able to reach those speeds, there often isn't weather stations in the areas that get the highest winds, and friction of land slows wind so always will be highest over water. NHC wasn't wrong with their intensity, you just won't see many reports of those high end winds but the damage will reflect it. There wasn't a ton with Michael up in that cat 4-5 range. 

that’s kinda my point. i get the idea of friction reducing wind speed… but the reality is this thing is now well inland...

 

and i’ll partially buy the reasoning that equipment fails (although over the last decade the number of storm chasers putting themselves in the worst areas makes me even somewhat skeptical of that) but what about now? where are 100+ mph sustained winds occurring? i doubt anywhere. gusts into the 80s or 90s? sure. sustained at 105 after 9pm? i doubt. 

[StormChaser4Life]

2 minutes ago, sakau2007 said:

that’s kinda my point. i get the idea of friction reducing wind speed… but the reality is this thing is now well inland...

 

and i’ll partially buy the reasoning that equipment fails (although over the last decade the number of storm chasers putting themselves in the worst areas makes me even somewhat skeptical of that) but what about now? where are 100+ mph sustained winds occurring? i doubt anywhere. gusts into the 80s or 90s? sure. sustained at 105 after 9pm? i doubt. 

Unfortunately once over land recon can't fly into Ian so they use satellite estimates and models that estimate weakening so is it perfect? No. Could Ian be weaker than this? Yes. But is it still a powerful and dangerous hurricane? Definitely. That nw eyewall is still pounding many cities with high end winds and extreme flooding rain. 

[WEATHER53]

What is the projected path of remnants for NC VA and MD ?

[nwohweather]

18z GFS continues the trend of deepening and brings a 982 MB storm west of Charleston Friday evening. 

I picked a hell of a week to come to the Smokies eh? Honestly been looking like a hell of a wind event over SC as this thing interacts with that trough

[Maestrobjwa]

Any particular the title of this thread wasn't ever changed to "Major Hurricane Ian"?

[StormChaser4Life]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Any particular the title of this thread wasn't ever changed to "Major Hurricane Ian"?

We have failed Ian and this thread 

[Wannabehippie]

10:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 28
Location: 27.4°N 81.5°W
Moving: NNE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

[MattPetrulli]

3 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

10:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 28
Location: 27.4°N 81.5°W
Moving: NNE at 8 mph
Min pressure: 968 mb
Max sustained: 100 mph

This is pretty impressive

Tropical storm conditions are occurring over a wide swath of the 
Florida peninsula.  An automated station at the Airglades Airport, 
located west of Lake Okeechobee recently reported sustained winds of 
42 mph (68 km/h) with a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h).  A WeatherFlow 
station located at Skyway Beach in St. Petersburg, Florida recently 
measured sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 51 mph 
(82 km/h). A WeatherFlow station located at Melbourne Beach Barrier 
Island Sanctuary recently observed sustained winds of 42 mph (68 
km/h) with a gust to 58 mph (93 km/h).

Coast to coast TS conditions