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18 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

You are in Levittown, correct? I can’t be much more than 3 miles south of you and only got .46. 

I got 1/2 my total from a heavy shower, last night, that I was on the southern fringe of. It looked like south of Hempstead Turnpike got nothing from that shower. Another recording station on weatherlink that is about 2 miles to my north is now up to 1.87 inches. They got twice as much as me from that one heavy shower.

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The radar picture of this system was for pockets of much heavier precipitation in a broader area of light rain.

The widely different rainfall totals reported verify this was not an artifact.   

Can anyone explain what causes this kind of scattered areas of heavier precipitation, sort of like raisins in apudding?

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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly cloudy and cool.  Clouds could begin to break this afternoon or evening. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 81°

Newark: 84°

Philadelphia: 87°

It will begin to turn warmer tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 79.3°; 15-Year: 79.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 80.7°; 15-Year: 81.0°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 81.9°; 15-Year: 82.0°

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This wasn't much of a drought buster here. You'd think that 3.66" would have a great impact right? I dug a few small 4-5" deep holes in the garden to see what the soil moisture is like and they are still dry and powdery at 3-4". The local creeks and rivers were raging and the reservoirs filled up completely but that's because the bulk of this didn't get a chance to soak in. We're going to see a huge explosion of growth and greenery now because the plants that didn't die were dormant but this didn't do squat towards the long term solution here. 

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7 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

This wasn't much of a drought buster here. You'd think that 3.66" would have a great impact right? I dug a few small 4-5" deep holes in the garden to see what the soil moisture is like and they are still dry and powdery at 3-4". The local creeks and rivers were raging and the reservoirs filled up completely but that's because the bulk of this didn't get a chance to soak in. We're going to see a huge explosion of growth and greenery now because the plants that didn't die were dormant but this didn't do squat towards the long term solution here. 

Interesting. I haven’t dug any holes in the yard but I see the local USGS monitoring well shows some recharge of ground water but obviously more is needed. 

6670894B-5A96-4752-8324-DBDBBD7ED95F.jpeg

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The next 8 days are averaging  74*(68/80) or +4.

Reached 76(midnight) here yesterday, about 70 during the daytime with the rain.

Today:   70-75,  wind ne., m.  cloudy, drizzle, 65 tomorrow AM.

67*(91%RH) here at 7am.      71* at Noon.        Reached 74* 4pm-5pm.         71* at 9pm.

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40 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

This wasn't much of a drought buster here. You'd think that 3.66" would have a great impact right? I dug a few small 4-5" deep holes in the garden to see what the soil moisture is like and they are still dry and powdery at 3-4". The local creeks and rivers were raging and the reservoirs filled up completely but that's because the bulk of this didn't get a chance to soak in. We're going to see a huge explosion of growth and greenery now because the plants that didn't die were dormant but this didn't do squat towards the long term solution here. 

lol, we aren’t in some massive drought.  This is the northeast not out west

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68 / 63 with 0.80 in the bucket (so far).  Clouds and showers today, clearing by later today or by sunset.  Warmer / drier by Thu (9/8).   Ridge builds along the coast by Fri (9/9) and into the weekend with onshore / southerly humid flow.  Warm with 80s for most this weekend.  Rockies Ridge still locked in through the weekend with tropical storm Kay perhaps bringing some rains and breezes to Southern California (it don't rain n southern california)  By Sunday night the front approaching from the GL/OV and bumping up against the ridge nd crawls east cutting off.  Mon (9/12) - Wed (9/14) the next rain opportunity.  


Beyond there- the Rockies ridge is forced east as a deep trough pushes into the WC, this will build heights into the EC by later next week and perhaps next shot for some late season heat and an overall warm look to the second half of the month.

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A welcome break from the major heat of this summer coming up. High pressure will become established over New England next several days with onshore flow. So the warmer spots will eventually return to 80s which isn’t very extreme by recent September standards. Then a closed low will approach from the west next week and bring another round of scattered convection. 
 

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9A674A5C-5B5D-48B6-A14C-7A562CC65A8F.thumb.png.ea70adabb8ce46a390fcfca561d30d2e.png

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18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Big time droughts are very rare here. You'd really need a dry winter/spring before there's a lot of concern. 

Still the dryness has been impressive particularly on vegetation. 

It’s easier to get big time droughts in the Western US which has well defined dry season. If those areas don’t do well during the winter rainy season, then the summer heat and less rainfall really dry things out. At least we get closer to uniform precipitation across all our seasons. So if one season is lacking, then things can rebound during the next season. It results in shorter dry periods. We haven’t had widespread D3 drought since 2002. But even that drought was much less severe than the current 1200 year megadrought in the West.

 

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Attached are 3 day CoCoRaHs totals: we are not done yet across the interior especially tri- state corner. 

The dry slot previously advertised is why outlooks were for 1/2-4". Parts of e LI were under 1/2". Definitely drier near I78 than initially modeled but beneficial nonetheless. 

Next event instead of Sun-Mon will be Mon-Tue as cued by models and a sampler of 48 hour rainfall is attached ending 00z/Wed (Tue evening dinner). The placement will adjust in our subforum. PW will approach 2" across NJ, again.  Speed of front and proximity of sfc low passage will determine max axis...

Screen Shot 2022-09-07 at 8.33.23 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-09-07 at 8.34.08 AM.png

Screen Shot 2022-09-07 at 8.29.37 AM.png

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1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

lol, we aren’t in some massive drought.  This is the northeast not out west

My dryness started last fall with a bit less rain than normal and then was 25" below avg snowfall with about 6" less overall precip through the winter. Early spring was near normal but that fell apart and it stopped raining in June. I'm down way more than the official numbers show and considering the soil is powdery going down over 2 feet now I'd say yeah, it's more extreme than most folks think. 

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25 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

My dryness started last fall with a bit less rain than normal and then was 25" below avg snowfall with about 6" less overall precip through the winter. Early spring was near normal but that fell apart and it stopped raining in June. I'm down way more than the official numbers show and considering the soil is powdery going down over 2 feet now I'd say yeah, it's more extreme than most folks think. 

Great explanation!!! It’s all good it’s kinda hard to convince @qg_omega because he lives in his own world with his own opinions that is contradictory to everyone else on here. It’s plain and simple we are in a drought I’d say moderate this point across the metro area. CT got plenty of rain yesterday so they are in a much better place then we are right now.   
 

D1(Moderate)- D2(Severe) drought is still a problem. We need the rain real bad!

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