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50 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

Not sure what you do work but I work in construction and I’m miserable in the summer because of all the sweating I do

I work for town highway dept.  Im blacktopping, mowing, tossing garbage, digging trenches, water leaks etc...in the heat.  It's nothing, just drink water or sports drinks and its fine.  Much easier to do in the heat than cold and damp or freezing cold.  Hard to work in thick gloves.  And I have no problem walking 18 holes in middle of July

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The week will likely end with unseasonably cool temperatures. At least some showers are likely this weekend. Parts of the region, especially central New Jersey southward could see some steadier and perhaps heavier rain.

Conditions in ENSO Region 1+2 could have implications for October's temperature anomalies. Since 1950, 15/21 (71%) of cases with an ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly of -0.75°C or below were warmer than normal in the Middle Atlantic region, including Philadelphia and New York City. 48% were 1° or more above average in New York City and 62% were 1° or more above average in Philadelphia. Just 14% were 1° or more below normal in New York City while 24% were 1° or more below normal in Philadelphia. One-third of cases in both cities saw a monthly mean temperature of 60° or above. Such ENSO conditions also favored warmth in the Central and Northern Plains, along with dry conditions in the Plains States.

Over the past two days, Orlando has seen a two-day record rainfall of 13.05". As a result, September 2022 is Orlando's wettest month on record with total rainfall of 22.36". Ian will make landfall in South Carolina tomorrow.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around September 21. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.73°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +16.46 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.402 today.

On September 27 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 0.459 (RMM). The September 26-adjusted amplitude was 0.455 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal September (1991-2020 normal). September will likely finish with a mean temperature near 69.6° (0.4° above normal).

 

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29 minutes ago, binbisso said:

8 straight days without a positive departure.  The next 10 days are all below normal on current guidance With coldest air mass of the season possibly next weekend.   1st frost/freeze for some of our northern burbs.  Haven't had a stretch like this in quite a long time

image.thumb.png.f175da12da6755f97c1d764fc199a1c0.png

image.thumb.png.9bc337b95f5be033541001f0ed1627d7.png

Terrible

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2 hours ago, binbisso said:

8 straight days without a positive departure.  The next 10 days are all below normal on current guidance With coldest air mass of the season possibly next weekend.   1st frost/freeze for some of our northern burbs.  Haven't had a stretch like this in quite a long time

image.thumb.png.f175da12da6755f97c1d764fc199a1c0.png

image.thumb.png.9bc337b95f5be033541001f0ed1627d7.png

I know and use a lot of the common websites for models and stuff like NOAA for teleconnections and MJO, but what website can I use if I want to compare current temperatures to those of a year range I set? Like if I wanted to arbitrarily compare current BN temperatures to an aggregate for late September but from 1858-1940 let’s say, just for the sake of noting the difference between then and now. 
 

I think I’ve seen Bluewave post data like this and would greatly appreciate being pointed towards any sites I could use for this. I love exploring historical temp and weather data. 
 

Thanks guys. 
 

edit: I think I’ve seen one that’s a map of CONUS with temp anomalies shaded for a given year range relative to current. That would be super helpful, but also that lists this data numerically. Also any sites that show just plain historical temperature data for different sites, though would prefer one that goes back as far as modern record keeping (think 1850’s?). I also want to take a look at temperature data for years of known volcanic aerosol injections, there are a few more from lesser known mid range eruptions than just the major ones (Pinatubo, Krakatoa, etc). Sorry if I’m asking a few different things but I feel like one or two websites will probably knock this out for me. Thanks!

 

edit 2: If anyone is curious, there were also large SO2 / volcanic aerosol injections in the years 1982 (El Chicón), 1963 (Gunung Agung), 1932-1933 (Cerro Azul and Kharimkotan, 1912 (Novarupta, a big one, and 1902 (Santa Maria, also a very large one). Going to take a look at the summer and winters of those years and the couple following them. Should be interesting if nothing else. 

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18 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I know and use a lot of the common websites for models and stuff like NOAA for teleconnections and MJO, but what website can I use if I want to compare current temperatures to those of a year range I set? Like if I wanted to arbitrarily compare current BN temperatures to an aggregate for late September but from 1858-1940 let’s say, just for the sake of noting the difference between then and now. 
 

I think I’ve seen Bluewave post data like this and would greatly appreciate being pointed towards any sites I could use for this. I love exploring historical temp and weather data. 
 

Thanks guys. 
 

edit: I think I’ve seen one that’s a map of CONUS with temp anomalies shaded for a given year range relative to current. That would be super helpful, but also that lists this data numerically. Also any sites that show just plain historical temperature data for different sites, though would prefer one that goes back as far as modern record keeping (think 1850’s?). I also want to take a look at temperature data for years of known volcanic aerosol injections, there are a few more from lesser known mid range eruptions than just the major ones (Pinatubo, Krakatoa, etc). Sorry if I’m asking a few different things but I feel like one or two websites will probably knock this out for me. Thanks!

 

edit 2: If anyone is curious, there were also large SO2 / volcanic aerosol injections in the years 1982 (El Chicón), 1963 (Gunung Agung), 1932-1933 (Cerro Azul and Kharimkotan, 1912 (Novarupta, a big one, and 1902 (Santa Maria, also a very large one). Going to take a look at the summer and winters of those years and the couple following them. Should be interesting if nothing else. 

This is a great site: https://xmacis.rcc-acis.org

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2 hours ago, ForestHillWx said:

OT:

Kinda banking on warmth to return mid-month as I had planned a weekend up in LG with the family back in August with the potential for warmer than normal.
 

If not, we will bundle up but the wife might not be happy. 

I hope so too.  6+ months of chilly crap gets depressing

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3 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said:

I hope so too.  6+ months of chilly crap gets depressing

I want a solidly cold winter. All this BS about warm octobers leading up to cold and snowy winters is crap. We've had warm octobers, warm novembers, warm decembers... give me a REAL 1970s winter!

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10 hours ago, TriPol said:

I want a solidly cold winter. All this BS about warm octobers leading up to cold and snowy winters is crap. We've had warm octobers, warm novembers, warm decembers... give me a REAL 1970s winter!

Yeah, we’ve only had like two winters in the past decade I’ve lived in inland TR where snow seemed to fall regularly and not melt instantly. Of course it doesn’t happen often, but it can happen which is the main point. I think 2013 and 2014 were the winters I’m thinking of. 
 

Nothing feels more like a classic, beautiful winter than having persistent snow cover. Of course this is different for you guys north and west, but I’m near sea level and not too far from the coast so it’s a much bigger ask. Still, when it does happen, *chef’s kiss.*

 

I also have vivid memories of 2009 where I lived in a house in Long Branch while going to school, and getting absolutely BURIED in a December storm. December blizzards feel impossible lately, you know? And then briefly lived in North Brunswick with my future wife through Dec 26 2010 and the subsequent massive storms that winter brought. Lot of these are backloaded in my memory, recently it seems we’ve more had isolated big events but little consistency.

 

I know it’s unlikely and growing ever more difficult, but I’m so ready for a wall to wall classic winter.  

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13 hours ago, TriPol said:

I want a solidly cold winter. All this BS about warm octobers leading up to cold and snowy winters is crap. We've had warm octobers, warm novembers, warm decembers... give me a REAL 1970s winter!

Yea sure, tell that to the people who struggle with sky high heating bills

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On 9/30/2022 at 5:39 AM, binbisso said:

8 straight days without a positive departure.  The next 10 days are all below normal on current guidance With coldest air mass of the season possibly next weekend.   1st frost/freeze for some of our northern burbs.  Haven't had a stretch like this in quite a long time

image.thumb.png.f175da12da6755f97c1d764fc199a1c0.png

image.thumb.png.9bc337b95f5be033541001f0ed1627d7.png

What exactly is causing this rare consistent cold pattern this time of year?  Some random typhoon recurvature?

 

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16 hours ago, TriPol said:

I want a solidly cold winter. All this BS about warm octobers leading up to cold and snowy winters is crap. We've had warm octobers, warm novembers, warm decembers... give me a REAL 1970s winter!

Do you realize all those winters were extremely boring outside of 1977-78 don't you?

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On 9/30/2022 at 7:58 AM, Volcanic Winter said:

I know and use a lot of the common websites for models and stuff like NOAA for teleconnections and MJO, but what website can I use if I want to compare current temperatures to those of a year range I set? Like if I wanted to arbitrarily compare current BN temperatures to an aggregate for late September but from 1858-1940 let’s say, just for the sake of noting the difference between then and now. 
 

I think I’ve seen Bluewave post data like this and would greatly appreciate being pointed towards any sites I could use for this. I love exploring historical temp and weather data. 
 

Thanks guys. 
 

edit: I think I’ve seen one that’s a map of CONUS with temp anomalies shaded for a given year range relative to current. That would be super helpful, but also that lists this data numerically. Also any sites that show just plain historical temperature data for different sites, though would prefer one that goes back as far as modern record keeping (think 1850’s?). I also want to take a look at temperature data for years of known volcanic aerosol injections, there are a few more from lesser known mid range eruptions than just the major ones (Pinatubo, Krakatoa, etc). Sorry if I’m asking a few different things but I feel like one or two websites will probably knock this out for me. Thanks!

 

edit 2: If anyone is curious, there were also large SO2 / volcanic aerosol injections in the years 1982 (El Chicón), 1963 (Gunung Agung), 1932-1933 (Cerro Azul and Kharimkotan, 1912 (Novarupta, a big one, and 1902 (Santa Maria, also a very large one). Going to take a look at the summer and winters of those years and the couple following them. Should be interesting if nothing else. 

This is why artificial aerosol injections are seen as a way to stop climate change.

 

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16 hours ago, TriPol said:

I want a solidly cold winter. All this BS about warm octobers leading up to cold and snowy winters is crap. We've had warm octobers, warm novembers, warm decembers... give me a REAL 1970s winter!

the classic pattern for a cold and snowy winter is average September- cold October- mild November- cold December and then cold through Marchand sometimes even April.

 

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