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On 8/26/2022 at 3:07 PM, Rtd208 said:

Tropical threats? Another heatwave? 

Discuss here.

Good morning all. I remember 58 years ago, my first week in college, the low in the city was in the high 40’s. That first brisk, cool airmass brought with it a special feeling and aroma of fall. Now in this forth month of summer well……. As always …..

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As noted previously:  ensembles don't have it, at least not yet but the 12z/29 EC op, and particularly 18z/29 GFS op are carving out a sizable 500MB trough in the northeast USA, which could be preceded by a swath of heavy convective rainfall (exclusive to this Tues night-30th-31st). Late Sunday-4th through Tue the 6th is this primary window of opportunity.

Presuming the drought continues for most of us (per ensemble miss to our east), then when might it break thereafter????

I am hoping it's been previously discussed that at least one study I vaguely recall has shown the bulk of our late summer-fall rainfall here,  is tropical system related. The unusually low (delayed?) ACE in the Atlc Basin tropical season seems to be linked to the generally notably parched northeast USA (NJ-New England). 

Fingers crossed that todays EC/GFS op cycle outliers become primary by Labor day.

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and warm.  High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 85°

Newark: 88°

Philadelphia: 88°

Generally warmer than normal conditions will persist through at least much of the first week of September.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 80.9°; 15-Year: 80.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 82.3°; 15-Year: 82.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.5°; 15-Year: 83.2°

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Okay guys, now this is interesting:

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/cold-anomaly-stratosphere-polar-vortex-volcanic-cooling-winter-influence-fa/

 

With respect to the massive stratospheric injection of water vapor by the Hunga Tonga eruption (~10% of the total that resides in the stratosphere normally, a huge quantity), we’ve been hearing that the greenhouse gas may produce a small surface warming anomaly. This stands counter to the ‘normal’ effects on the climate from large scale explosive volcanism, as typically sulphur and ash particulates are responsible for measurable surface cooling as is what happened after Pinatubo 1991 for a couple years. But we know HTHH was very sulphur poor (1/40th the loading of Pinatubo). 
 

However, I raised the question in the August thread about how this disruption to the stratosphere may impact the various oscillations as we head into northern hemispheric winter. 
 

This article finds correlation between the observed current stratospheric cooling in the Southern Hemisphere resulting from HTHH (check it out, it’s a MASSIVE anomaly right now) and northern hemispheric stratospheric warming. What happens when we have stratospheric warming in winter? Negative NAO leading to BN surface temps and improved storm tracks.

This is correlative conjecture in looking at past instances of stratospheric cooling in the Southern Hemisphere, but it’s very interesting and cuts right to the heart of what I’ve been asking and speculating about. 
 

Thought you guys might find this interesting. Lock it in? SSW epic neg NAO 60 inch NYC snowstorms? Yes please. 
 

Of course this is speculation, and we’re more or less going to be learning in real time what its impacts will be, if any at all (though finding it unlikely to be nil), for our northern hemispheric winter. 

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August ended at  79.3[+3.2]

The first 8 days of September are averaging  77degs.(69/85) or +5.

First half of September is a BORE according to this run:

1661990400-jm8TW9Qw7CI.png

Danielle Goodbye-We Hardly Knew You.       Now was Danielle an only child?      

1662876000-03wPRkNc4xs.png

Reached 87*(34%RH) here late yesterday.

Today: 83-88, wind w. to n., m. sunny, 66 tomorrow AM.

70*(64%RH) here at 7am.        78* at Noon.       79* at 1pm.       84* at 4pm.       87*(31%RH) at 4:30pm.       88*(29%RH) at 5pm.       Reached 90*(28%RH) at 6pm!        85* at 7pm.      79* at 9pm.       The RH got down as low as 24%.       77* at 10pm.

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

We can't even get a near normal month with the new averages. Every month is a top 5 warmest month. 

Kinda wild how fast things are warming when you really think about it.

A 0" snowfall is definitely on the cards if this pattern rolls into winter.

ewr hasn't had a high below 80 since 8/1 and it was the only sub 80 high since june 23

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Just now, forkyfork said:

ewr hasn't had a high below 80 since 8/1 and it was the only sub 80 high since june 23

Crazy, some people are still trying to justify that things weren't so hot.

If a top 2-3 or hottest/driest summer on record ain't good enough then what is.

The persistence is key when it comes to climate change and that's what we're seeing all over the world, endless heat. 

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

We can't even get a near normal month with the new averages. Every month is a top 5 warmest month. 

Kinda wild how fast things are warming when you really think about it.

A 0" snowfall is definitely on the cards if this pattern rolls into winter.

One thing we've seen with our warming climate is we're still getting a good amount of snow in the winter. It has become a Colorado-like climate in the winter here with the combination of warm temps and big snowstorms. So hopefully we can continue to pull off a good amount of snow in our warmer winters, but of course there's no guarantee that this will continue.

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9 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

One thing we've seen with our warming climate is we're still getting a good amount of snow in the winter. It has become a Colorado-like climate in the winter with the combination of warm temps and big snowstorms. So hopefully we can continue to pull off a good amount of snow in our warmer winters, but of course there's no guarantee that this will continue.

We’re nowhere close to being too warm for snow in the winters. The main problem we’ll keep having is bad storm tracks when +NAO/AO dominate. 

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