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Yep, looks like the rain is edging north again. It's just unbelievable how persistent this is over months now.

Ended with .01”. And yes it is incredible. The most localized intense drought you could dream up. I wonder if it has anything to do with increased water temps. Which would make sense, in that a place like Florida will constantly see convention from and sit just a few miles from the beach.
We’ll see what strataform season brings. I doubt this can continue


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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly sunny and warm. Some scattered showers are possible. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 74°

Newark: 76°

Philadelphia: 77°

Tomorrow will be slightly cooler. The week will end with cool temperatures.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 72.3°; 15-Year: 73.5°

Newark: 30-Year: 73.8°; 15-Year: 75.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 75.1°; 15-Year: 76.3°

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The record blocking will result in a cooler pattern into next weekend across the area. So Ian is expected to stall out near the Gulf Coast of Florida. This is a continuation of needing record blocking just to get cooler than average temperatures around here.

E3E9E0B6-C8C6-480E-BCD2-27F437E24DA5.gif.50d86de4abd6cab3a7aef39b49a84547.gif


85A3C08A-0AC9-475B-9C37-37893A7D582B.thumb.png.2655967f15138386fc477845285e691b.png


D762616A-AF33-4F41-8797-4483A411DDEF.thumb.png.3b6d255a59ae049580065cdec19f3d6d.png
 

8EA4E696-321E-4DFE-A9E9-763C0195D76A.png.5b219ff31a08c2f3c228e708484bf293.png

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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The record blocking will result in a cooler pattern into next weekend across the area. So Ian is expected to stall out near the Gulf Coast of Florida. This is a continuation of needing record blocking just to get cooler than average temperatures around here.

E3E9E0B6-C8C6-480E-BCD2-27F437E24DA5.gif.50d86de4abd6cab3a7aef39b49a84547.gif


85A3C08A-0AC9-475B-9C37-37893A7D582B.thumb.png.2655967f15138386fc477845285e691b.png


D762616A-AF33-4F41-8797-4483A411DDEF.thumb.png.3b6d255a59ae049580065cdec19f3d6d.png
 

8EA4E696-321E-4DFE-A9E9-763C0195D76A.png.5b219ff31a08c2f3c228e708484bf293.png

I’m sure we will lose the blocking by December

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The last 5 days of September are averaging  63degs.(56/71) or -2.

Month to date is  71.1[+0.9].       September should end at  69.8[+0.6].

Reached 74 here yesterday.

Today:  72-75, m. sunny-some PM clouds, wind w. to s., breezy, 61 tomorrow AM.

Rain falls short of our area on the GFS,CMC from Ian.     Only the EURO reaches this far north.    Oct.02-05.

1664172000-28LOBBYdcNU.png

60*(92%RH) here at 6am.        70* by 1pm.       72* at 2pm.       Reached 76* at 4:30pm.       74* at 6pm.

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Ian and monthly: Ian substantial rains unlikely (my wrong prior expectation) to arrive prior to Oct 1 so LGA and BDR top 20 month of Sept rainfall will remain as is (even with a small shower or two the next couple of days), within the shorter period of record dating back to the 1940s.  00z/26 GEPS is the only ensemble (recent cycles coming on board) that has decent qpf up here late Friday Sept 30.  CoCoRaHs rainfall for yesterday is attached (please click for clarity). Noting the south shore of LI pretty much missed again. Also, very little rain extreme nw NJ (0.01 this part of Wantage at our home) and POU area. 

Ian: highest PW-moisture still destined up here but possibly delayed til Sunday Oct2?  Ensembles peel the heavier rains eastward just south of our NYC subforum. Presuming it comes up here as a nor'easter, then squally ne winds. All this paragraph still TBD. 

Finally for all the Mets fans: Ian "may" force one of the  Fri or Sat night games to be placed into a day-night double header Sunday Oct 2?  Long ways off and timing is everything so maybe these play with normal 720PM starting times, though I foresee delays.  26/1314z

 

 

Screen Shot 2022-09-26 at 8.51.52 AM.png

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22 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Ian and monthly: Ian substantial rains unlikely (my wrong prior expectation) to arrive prior to Oct 1 so LGA and BDR top 20 month of Sept rainfall will remain as is (even with a small shower or two the next couple of days), within the shorter period of record dating back to the 1940s.  00z/26 GEPS is the only ensemble (recent cycles coming on board) that has decent qpf up here late Friday Sept 30.  CoCoRaHs rainfall for yesterday is attached (please click for clarity). Noting the south shore of LI pretty much missed again. Also, very little rain extreme nw NJ (0.01 this part of Wantage at our home) and POU area. 

Ian: highest PW-moisture still destined up here but possibly delayed til Sunday Oct2?  Ensembles peel the heavier rains eastward just south of our NYC subforum. Presuming it comes up here as a nor'easter, then squally ne winds. All this paragraph still TBD. 

Finally for all the Mets fans: Ian "may" force one of the  Fri or Sat night games to be placed into a day-night double header Sunday Oct 2?  Long ways off and timing is everything so maybe these play with normal 720PM starting times, though I foresee delays.  26/1314z

 

 

Screen Shot 2022-09-26 at 8.51.52 AM.png

Looks like JFK did make it to 0.5"

I wonder when the last time was JFK had an event that dumped 1.00" or more?

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3 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:


Ended with .01”. And yes it is incredible. The most localized intense drought you could dream up. I wonder if it has anything to do with increased water temps. Which would make sense, in that a place like Florida will constantly see convention from and sit just a few miles from the beach.
We’ll see what strataform season brings. I doubt this can continue


.

It's that and also entering the cool phase of the AMO.  I believe we are in store for some fair weather low rainfall summers :-)

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The record blocking will result in a cooler pattern into next weekend across the area. So Ian is expected to stall out near the Gulf Coast of Florida. This is a continuation of needing record blocking just to get cooler than average temperatures around here.

E3E9E0B6-C8C6-480E-BCD2-27F437E24DA5.gif.50d86de4abd6cab3a7aef39b49a84547.gif


85A3C08A-0AC9-475B-9C37-37893A7D582B.thumb.png.2655967f15138386fc477845285e691b.png


D762616A-AF33-4F41-8797-4483A411DDEF.thumb.png.3b6d255a59ae049580065cdec19f3d6d.png
 

8EA4E696-321E-4DFE-A9E9-763C0195D76A.png.5b219ff31a08c2f3c228e708484bf293.png

Isn't this good for winter forecasts as October blocking usually foretells winter blocking?

 

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3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Isn't this good for winter forecasts as October blocking usually foretells winter blocking?

 

Good morning Liberty. I wonder when/if, on our present trajectory it will take blocking in January just to get to 0 C in the inner city. Stay well, as always …..

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10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

what causes this persistence?  Strong bermuda high?

At this point it’s hard to say. The rainfall boundaries have kept setting up like this over northern NYC and northern LI. From time to time the sea breeze boundaries cause more rain to develop over central/northern LI but it’s been so excessive that it can’t be the overall story. 

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67 and sunny.  Looks like the work week should feature mainly sunny / dry conditions and wonderful weather.  Next shot at rain would be this coming weekend 10/1-2 with where / what ever remnants of Ian crawling up or off the Mid Atlantic coast.  Probably near normal beyond Ian in the 10/3 - 10/6 period then ridging may build back into the EC.

 

MLB with huge headache this week as Ian may disrupt many critical and pivotal games Tues - Fri along the FL / GA.

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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

At this point it’s hard to say. The rainfall boundaries have kept setting up like this over northern NYC and northern LI. From time to time the sea breeze boundaries cause more rain to develop over central/northern LI but it’s been so excessive that it can’t be the overall story. 

I was wondering if we're becoming the new Florida.

But this does seem to be excessive even for that.

Do you remember 2002 at all? Was that drought similar to this one?

 

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

67 and sunny.  Looks like the work week should feature mainly sunny / dry conditions and wonderful weather.  Next shot at rain would be this coming weekend 10/1-2 with where / what ever remnants of Ian crawling up or off the Mid Atlantic coast.  Probably near normal beyond Ian in the 10/3 - 10/6 period then ridging may build back into the EC.

 

MLB with huge headache this week as Ian may disrupt many critical and pivotal games Tues - Fri along the FL / GA.

At this point all stadiums should have removable domes.

That they don't means their owners don't care about their teams.

 

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