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August 2022


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A very warm August is concluding. Tomorrow will again see above normal temperatures.

Newark is on track to record its second warmest summer on record. There is some chance it could see its warmest summer on record. Philadelphia will see either its second or third warmest summer on record.

Above normal temperatures will likely continue through at least much of the first week of September.

An intense heatwave that will continue into early September is now evolving in parts of the western U.S. and Canada. Portland reached 99°, which surpassed the record of 98° that was set in 1987. Salt Lake City reached 101°, which surpassed the old record set in 1954. Seattle reached 90° breaking the record of 88° from 1987. It was also Seattle's 12th 90° day of the year, which tied the record for most such days from 2015.

Boise and Salt Lake City could see temperatures approach or reach September records. Death Valley will likely see multiple 120° or hotter days.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. The recent passage of the MJO through Phase 2 at a very high amplitude (1.500 or above) during late August has introduced greater uncertainty.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around August 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +18.88 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.563 today.

On August 28 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.865 (RMM). The August 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.930 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.4° (3.3° above normal).

 

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20 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

It's pouring here now. Some wind gusts in the 30s and some lightning. Decent storm ... I'm so glad the line held together.

My mom in Piscataway said it was pouring.   Looked good on radar.  Interested in your total.  Only .09" here, your cell missed to my south by about 2 miles.

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1 minute ago, FPizz said:

My mom in Piscataway said it was pouring.   Looked good on radar.  Interested in your total.  Only .09" here, your cell missed to my south by about 2 miles.

0.48" here so far. It was a nice heavy downpour. Still raining lightly, so might add a little more to the total. Sorry that most of it missed you in Branchburg.

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Warmest summer and 2nd driest at Newark with a day to go. All our other stations are I the top 5 for warmth. With several also among the driest summers. So one of the most significant shutdowns of the tropics in the Atlantic which we heavily rely on for summer rainfall. The Plains drought ridge also played an important role. 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 79.2 1
- 1993 79.2 0
2 2010 78.7 0
3 1994 78.5 0
4 2021 78.3 0
5 2011 78.0 0
6 2005 77.8 0
7 1988 77.7 0
8 2020 77.6 0
- 2016 77.6 0
- 1973 77.6 0
9 1999 77.1 0


 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jun through Aug
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Total Precipitation 
Missing Count
1 1966 4.46 0
2 2022 4.87 1
3 1949 5.68 0
4 1957 5.69 0
5 1965 5.83 0
6 1963 6.18 0
7 1993 6.20 0
8 1953 6.47 0
9 2010 6.74 0


 

 

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Your garden hose could do a better job than this.      Behaved as models indicated.    Arrived in a moribund state.
1661909640-DGyKnM9ITgM.png
Swing and another miss for Suffolk county on the island...

Last rain of .1"+ in SW Suffolk is approaching 60 days?... 2" over the last three months...

Another shot in about a week... but those possibilities look far less than 50%....

Been watering the lawn every 3-4 days, still somewhat green because of the zoysia grass .. most lawns around me are now dusty brown, no longer yellow... trees turning yellow and brown as well...

This is the worst drought I've ever seen here... although the late 70's had some periods that were similar...

Real bad at this point...

Sent from my moto g power (2021) using Tapatalk


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11 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Obviously with summer being so dry, this is going to have an impact on our winter. What are the analogs for upcoming winters following extremely dry summers for us?

2002 was a dry/hot summer and 2002-03 was a very good winter but it was also a moderate Nino, this will almost certainly be another Nina. So I think many other factors will determine how good quality the winter will be. 

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

2002 was a dry/hot summer and 2002-03 was a very good winter but it was also a moderate Nino, this will almost certainly be another Nina. So I think many other factors will determine how good quality the winter will be. 

Probably end up more like 99-00

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