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August 2022


Rtd208
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2 hours ago, winterwarlock said:

Remember all those posts on this forum in mid and even late June lamenting  the lack of heat and models showing no 90s for the foreseeable  future.

That was true.  Just like the models showing endless summer the past couple of months.  

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21 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

If only the huge rainstorm the 18z GFS is showing for early/mid week next week would hold true.

Yeah, if only.  The model is questionable days 3 to 5 and useless beyond day 5 in my opinion.  It flops around like a fish out of water.  That solution is so far fetched it is laughable.  Why anyone looks at it beyond day 5 is beyond me.  Even at day 3 to 5 I only use it to compare to the superior Euro and CMC.  It is a follower not a leader.

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Tomorrow will be a hot day. Temperatures will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

Newark is on track to record its second warmest summer on record. There is some chance it could see its warmest summer on record. Philadelphia will see either its second or third warmest summer on record.

The remainder of August will likely see generally above normal temperatures. Additional 90° or above days are possible in parts of the region. Above normal temperatures will likely continue through at least much of the first week of September.

Late August and early September will see an intense heatwave develop in parts of the western U.S. and Canada. Boise and Salt Lake City could see temperatures approach or reach September records.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. The recent passage of the MJO through Phase 2 at a very high amplitude (1.500 or above) during late August has introduced greater uncertainty.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around August 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.72°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.93°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +19.36 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.379 today.

On August 27 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.930 (RMM). The August 26-adjusted amplitude was 1.898 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.4° (3.3° above normal).

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly sunny and vey warm.  High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 88°

Newark: 91°

Philadelphia: 92°

Generally warmer than normal conditions will persist through at least much of the first week of September.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 81.3°; 15-Year: 81.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 82.7°; 15-Year: 82.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.9°; 15-Year: 83.6°

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With a few days to go, Newark is tied for the warmest summer. Freehold-Marlboro is also in 1st place. ISP is 2nd warmest. HPN is either 2nd or 3rd warmest since too many days are missing from 1995 to get an accurate average. JFK is currently ranked 3rd warmest. We can also see how most of the top 10 warmest summers have occurred since 2010.

 

With a few days to go, Newark is tied for the warmest summer.

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 79.2 2
- 1993 79.2 0
2 2010 78.7 0
3 1994 78.5 0
4 2021 78.3 0
5 2011 78.0 0
6 2005 77.8 0
7 1988 77.7 0
8 2020 77.6 0
- 2016 77.6 0
- 1973 77.6 0
9 1999 77.1 0
10 1995 77.0 0


 

Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2022 76.7 5
2 2020 76.5 4
3 1999 76.3 7
4 2010 76.1 2
5 2021 75.6 0


 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 74.7 0
2 2022 74.6 2
- 2020 74.6 0
3 1999 74.5 0
4 2016 74.4 0
5 2011 73.9 0
6 2019 73.8 0
7 2021 73.7 0
8 2018 73.5 0
- 2005 73.5 0
9 2013 73.4 0
10 2012 73.3 0
- 1991 73.3 0


 

Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1995 75.1 43
2 1999 74.3 7
3 2022 74.0 3
- 1983 74.0 1
4 2010 73.8 2
5 2016 73.7 0
6 2020 73.4 0
7 2005 73.2 2
- 1966 73.2 0
8 1952 73.1 0
9 2018 73.0 0
10 2012 72.9 0
- 1949 72.9 8


 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 2010 77.1 0
2 2016 76.5 0
3 2022 76.1 2
4 2015 76.0 0
5 2011 75.8 0
6 2020 75.7 0
7 1983 75.6 0
8 1984 75.4 0
9 2012 75.3 0
- 1991 75.3 0
10 1971 75.2 0
- 1949 75.2 0
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2017 was our last summer with near average temperatures and a below normal number of 90° days.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/2801/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

Near normal and cool years bolded

Year JJA……NYC boroughs and Long Island…Northern New Jersey 

2021….+1.1….+1.2

2020…+2.6….+2.9

2019…+1.5…..+1.8

2018…+1.7……+1.8

2017…..+0.2….0.0

2016….+2.5….+2.5

2015….+1.4…..+0.8

2014…..-0.1…..-0.1

2013….+1.2…..+1.3

2012…..+1.7…..+1.7

2011…..+2.2…..+1.8

2010….+3.9…..+3.4

2009….-0.6…..-0.6

2008….+1.2……+1.4

2007…..+0.3…..+0.6

2006…..+1.7……+1.6

2005…..+2.6…..+3.3

2004…..-0.3….-0.6

2003…+0.4….+0.4

2002…..+1.6….+2.3

2001…..+0.7…..+0.6

2000…..-1.2…..-1.3

1999…..+2.7…..+2.9

1998….+0.7…..+0.7

1997….-0.3……-0.8

1996…..-0.6….-0.4

1995….+1.4…..+1.8

1994….+1.5…..+1.8

1993….+1.4…..+1.3

1992….-2.0…..-2.3

1991…..+1.8…..+1.7

 

Data for January 1, 2017 through December 31, 2017
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
State
Name
Station Type
Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 
NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 25
NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 25
NJ HARRISON COOP 23
NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 22
NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 17
NJ CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP WBAN 17
CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 14
NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 13
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76 / 70 and on way to some more 90s for many in the area.  Overall warmth continues with a brief cooldown Thu (9/1).  Warmer by the weekend before next front and possible widespread rain later Sunday and into the first week of Sep.  beyond that ridge rebuilds by later next week and an overall warm looking into the beyond.

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The last 2 days of August are averaging  80degs.(72/88) or +7.

Month to date is  79.3[+3.1].        August should end at  79.4[+3.3].

Reached 82 here yesterday with high humidity.

Today:  85-90, wind w., clouds, breaks, rain/TS?  6pm-2am, 71 tomorrow AM.

Danielle should be near Bermuda on the 6th, and the front keeping her away from us, should be giving us some rain at that time.

GFS is the most aggressive of the three...................Hurricane chance:    Others are at 0.

1662703200-hgFrlqhv0tk.png

75*(95%RH) here at 7am.    77* at 9am.      79* at Noon.       80* at 1pm.       82* at 5pm.

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I'm seeing most folks are going for Central Park high temperature of 88 this afternoon. I'm thinking they're going to over-perform and end up at 89 or 90 (#25). Tomorrow may bring another shot at 90 in spite of the rapidly lowering humidity levels. The next two shots IMO would be Saturday and Sunday. A little more in the way of showers and thunderstorms later Sunday or Sunday night followed by slightly lower temperatures on Labor Day as it appears now. 

WX/PT

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4 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

How much rain are the models spitting out for central jersey

NAM gives our area about three quarters of an inch tonight, with heavier amounts to the northwest and south. RGEM also gets rain in here for tonight, but not as much. It gives us about a third of an inch. I'm hoping we get a decent watering tonight.

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8 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

NAM gives our area about three quarters of an inch tonight, with heavier amounts to the northwest and south. RGEM also gets rain in here for tonight, but not as much. It gives us about a third of an inch. I'm hoping we get a decent watering tonight.

That's the regular NAM-the 3k Is much drier with little to nothing for most of us

-

nam3km_apcpn_neus_10.png

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