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August 2022


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But the folliage!! 

It’s been burned to a crisp. Just more proof that, that’s the issue, as if we needed any.
As bad as the drought is in the city, it’s a whole other level on the south shore. At this rate there will be serious forest damage and the potential for west coast style fires once we get our first strong cold front and NW winds


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12 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:


It’s been burned to a crisp. Just more proof that, that’s the issue, as if we needed any.
As bad as the drought is in the city, it’s a whole other level on the south shore. At this rate there will be serious forest damage and the potential for west coast style fires once we get our first strong cold front and NW winds


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A major brush fire started yesterday and is on going today up near Sams Point. 

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The record warm pool and ridging east of New England has been having a big impact on our local climate. It’s especially obvious this month with the record warmth in the Northeast. This pattern has been a major factor in all the record warmth since the +13.3 December 2015.

 

E63DC177-5BAA-41AD-B110-2D77066CB6FB.thumb.png.82c14e8fdfc5ea40433b59942a15a7d8.png

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FF243A83-379C-4454-9E15-27DF82B2532E.thumb.png.750f5cc0492b0ae42834d0ad1f94719e.png

 

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1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

We need rain 

Yep, and very little rain in sight unfortunately. Scattered t-storms with the front late tuesday is looking like our only chance. Very dry pattern the next couple weeks. Hot too. After a brief minor cooldown late week, it looks as if we're gonna start another heat wave next weekend. Labor Day looks hot.

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46 minutes ago, Blizzwalker said:

Not happy to hear this. I'm going hiking near there today on the ridge north of Wurtsboro.  I'll keep a lookout for smoke...

Heads up there’s a fire in Wurtsboro too. County route 56 is closed and the public is advised to avoid that area.  This fire is active today too. 

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1 hour ago, winterwx21 said:

Yep, and very little rain in sight unfortunately. Scattered t-storms with the front late tuesday is looking like our only chance. Very dry pattern the next couple weeks. Hot too. After a brief minor cooldown late week, it looks as if we're gonna start another heat wave next weekend. Labor Day looks hot.

This is unfortunate. I'm glad we had some rains last week but it's nowhere near enough and far too localized to make an impact.

Not much on the tropics front either. Bad fire season ahead. GFS OP to 2 weeks has literally no rain for anyone and upper 80s to low 90s pretty much everyday.

Nuts 

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The lack of rain has dried up the foliage…less of an impact 
Large number of trees turning yellow/brown on Sunrise and Southern State in Suffolk...

Haven't seen anything like this since the late 70's..

These things have a habit of evening out... I fear some very wet conditions are in store for fall and winter...


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78 / 69 onshore Easrtly flow with clouds starting to burn off.  Brief 'cooler' day today capped in the low/mid 80s before more warmth builds back Mon (8/29) Tue (8/30) and Wed (8/31) with more chance at 90s as the drier conditions and sunny skies should allow temps to over perform guidance.  Two day cool down by Sep 1 and 2nd before warming back up labor day weekend.  Overall warm to hot at times into next month.

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16 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

78 / 69 onshore Easrtly flow with clouds starting to burn off.  Brief 'cooler' day today capped in the low/mid 80s before more warmth builds back Mon (8/29) Tue (8/30) and Wed (8/31) with more chance at 90s as the drier conditions and sunny skies should allow temps to over perform guidance.  Two day cool down by Sep 1 and 2nd before warming back up labor day weekend.  Overall warm to hot at times into next month.

Yes more heat is on the way. I suspect the marine layer could roll back in later this afternoon or this evening after high temperatures top out in the low-mid 80s, cooler at the shore but there's really no end yet in sight to either the dry and hot conditions. As we've said, maybe a thunderstorm or two Tuesday afternoon or evening scattered about the region as the cold front passes but that will not bring much if any relief to the drought. 2 days of temperatures in the low-mid 80s followed by more upper 80s to lower 90s. Then we watch (is it) Danielle meander off the east coast possibly moving out to sea and more hot dry weather cover the region through at least September 12th. As I've said I think we're going to around September 20th with this kind of weather pattern the fire danger only getting worse until we get some significant rainfall here.

WX/PT

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Large number of trees turning yellow/brown on Sunrise and Southern State in Suffolk...

Haven't seen anything like this since the late 70's..

These things have a habit of evening out... I fear some very wet conditions are in store for fall and winter...


Sent from my moto g power (2021) using Tapatalk




Unfortunately if you see an oak that has turned brown it’s dead. Some other trees like red maples for example will turn yellow and gradually shed leaves. Those may survive. But overall this is extremely serious. I don’t even want to think about what another hot dry two weeks will do


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BYE BYE MISS AMERICAN PIE and September 2015.        And do not count on much rain either----just one event again on the 6th. instead of the 12th., this run.       Again use these T's for the hottest spots around here and not  for where they are meant to be used, Central Park----I hope:

Avg. 80(72/89) or +8 on the next 16 days.

1661688000-Dw2QqOHY2jc.png

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On 8/19/2022 at 7:38 PM, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I have the feeling that for the NYC Metro Region 90 degree heat could occur off and on through September 20th followed by 85 degree warmth off and on through October 15th. It looks like a warmer than normal autumn ahead for our area with drought conditions contingent upon any tropical moisture that can wander up this way. 

WX/PT

 

 

On 8/19/2022 at 11:11 PM, nycwinter said:

 

zero chance of that happening..

 

30 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

BYE BYE MISS AMERICAN PIE and September 2015.        And do not count on much rain either----just one event again on the 6th. instead of the 12th., this run.       Again use these T's for the hottest spots around here and not  for where they are meant to be used, Central Park----I hope:

Avg. 80(72/89) or +8 on the next 16 days.

1661688000-Dw2QqOHY2jc.png

 

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24 minutes ago, doncat said:

Last year after Ida on 9/1, station rainfall from 7/1 to 9/1 was 29.01".... this year pending what may fall midweek, is 4.39".

This is the first time that Newark had over 20.00” one summer and under 5.00” the next.

 

E71DB5FA-68D2-4067-A9DF-E148F43675F9.thumb.jpeg.c79097a3c65bfe9a3f4ed2ceeeb6ccb8.jpeg

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Clouds held temperatures to the low 80s from Newark to New York City. Farther south, Philadelphia topped out at 91°. Temperatures will rebound tomorrow.

Newark is on track to record its second warmest summer on record. There is some chance it could see its warmest summer on record. Philadelphia will see either its second or third warmest summer on record.

The remainder of August will likely see generally above normal temperatures. Additional 90° or above days are possible in parts of the region. Above normal temperatures will likely continue through at least much of the first week of September.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast.

In addition, in the 6 past cases when the June AO averaged +0.750 or above (1950-2021), 67% of the following August and September cases featured above normal temperatures. The August ECMWF forecast shows a warmer than normal September in the Northeast. This warmth would be consistent with the ongoing warming that has been occurring in September.

On August 18, the SOI fell to -32.90. Since 1991, there were 8 cases when the SOI fell to -30 or below during the August 10-25 period. That outcome has often preceded a wetter than normal September in parts of the Northeast. Mean September rainfall figures for those 8 cases: Boston: 4.38" (normal: 3.55"); New York City: 5.08" (normal: 4.31"); and, Philadelphia: 5.12" (normal: 4.40"). Very wet years outnumbered very dry ones by a 2:1 ratio in Boston and 3:1 ratio in both New York City and Philadelphia. 63% of cases saw at least one day with 1" or more rainfall in Boston. 88% saw at least one day with 1" or more in New York City and Philadelphia. 50% of those cases saw at least one day with 2" or more daily rainfall in Philadelphia. In sum, the SOI may be offering a signal that there will be some drought relief for the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England regions in September. The recent passage of the MJO through Phase 2 at a very high amplitude (1.500 or above) during late August has introduced greater uncertainty.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.2°C for the week centered around August 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.83°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.88°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the fall.

The SOI was +16.20 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.882 today.

On August 26 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.898 (RMM). The August 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.768 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.3° (3.2° above normal).

 

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11 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:


It’s been burned to a crisp. Just more proof that, that’s the issue, as if we needed any.
As bad as the drought is in the city, it’s a whole other level on the south shore. At this rate there will be serious forest damage and the potential for west coast style fires once we get our first strong cold front and NW winds


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I am seeing full grown trees here with brown leaves-like dead....not just stressed.  Lots of dogwoods dead too-there's alot of rock here so trees that don't have much topsoil are the first to go.

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NOT TO MAKE A POINT WITH AN 18Z GFS RUN--but this one puts in jeopardy the first 100 ever recorded at NYC and latest date in the year ever recorded:

Sept. 07, 1881    101*      Hate to see you go after 141 years.   LOL

1661709600-eDpS3AOyXMw.png

 

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17 minutes ago, CIK62 said:

NOT TO MAKE A POINT WITH AN 18Z GFS RUN--but this one puts in jeopardy the first 100 ever recorded at NYC and latest date in the year ever recorded:

Sept. 07, 1881    101*      Hate to see you go after 141 years.   LOL

1661709600-eDpS3AOyXMw.png

 

Luckily the GFS tends to be too warm in the extended like it tends to be too cold in the winter. But unfortunately for people like me, doesn’t look like a change from the warmth and heat until after Labor Day.

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is the first time that Newark had over 20.00” one summer and under 5.00” the next.

 

E71DB5FA-68D2-4067-A9DF-E148F43675F9.thumb.jpeg.c79097a3c65bfe9a3f4ed2ceeeb6ccb8.jpeg

Do you think this is a start of a new trend? I didn't realize global warming would cause lapse rates to decrease until Joe Bastardi posted on July 16th of this year that the lapse rates aren't changing. But I think lapse rates are decreasing because that would explain why rural, extremely low population density locations, in the mountains show as much, or more warming, than big urban areas at lower elevations (like Bradford, Pennsylvania - shown below, with the ten warmest summers since 1957). That would be the opposite of what would be predicted by the theory of the urban heat island effect. So if lapse rates are, in fact, decreasing, will that lead to greater atmospheric stability in the summertime and less convective rainfall? I think what may happen is the rain will become less frequent, but when it does rain, it will fall heavier from the increase in atmospheric water vapor. Which I think is consistent with what the models show, by and large.

image.png.87139125174612aad7c97cfe6f6ac558.png

If this is true, then hopefully state and local governments will prepare for more frequent droughts, and even possible fire weather conditions, in the warm season, even while total precipitation is steady or increasing.

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I wonder if models have yet to pick up on the seasonal transition cues because the GFS still thinks it's mid July by September 10. 

The GFS does this a lot in March too when it shows single digits for mid March. 

Chances are it'll be very warm but I'm very weary of the days and days of 95+ readings. 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be mostly sunny and vey warm.  High temperatures will reach the upper 80s and lower 90s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 87°

Newark: 90°

Philadelphia: 93°

Generally warmer than normal conditions will persist through at least much of the first week of September.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 81.5°; 15-Year: 81.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 82.9°; 15-Year: 82.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 84.1°; 15-Year: 83.8°

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