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July Discobs 2022


George BM
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28 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

No mention of the flood watch of the DC metro area? HRRR looks interesting for DC later. NAM3K is more interesting for just about everyone. We could still use some rain here in Southern Carroll County.  

A Flood Watch?

@BlizzardNole Oof... and with that, there goes any small chance you had of getting good rain. Better get watering! :P

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1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

No mention of the flood watch for the DC metro area? HRRR looks interesting for DC later. NAM3K is more interesting for just about everyone. We could still use some rain here in Southern Carroll County.  

Hey there's a flood watch for DC metro.

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4 hours ago, George BM said:

A Flood Watch?

@BlizzardNole Oof... and with that, there goes any small chance you had of getting good rain. Better get watering! :P

That's OK :D  Getting our old fence replaced today so we need the Germantown shield.  Watching them dig the new holes and man it's dry down deep.

Tough folks as the sun's out and the HX is 90

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7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea I just don't see it happening today. Now watch it just pour. 

The HRRR has some smaller cells (nothing too impressive looking) for the metros. Thinking it *could* be distantly similar to the other day when things looked kind of lame and then cells kept training over MoCo. Maybe not to that degree but there could be training or backbuilding I'd think. Think that Flood Watch is more to cover the isolated cases of urban flooding or small creeks that inevitably occur in any storm that lasts more than 10 minutes. 

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20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea I just don't see it happening today. Now watch it just pour. 

Feels soupy for sure! I almost feel I could create a localized cell if I open my air conditioned home and cause condensation from the temp differential! That being said, I see the puffs now on the satellite and the isolated cells so we must have hit critical temp points to start some action. That looks especially true for any areas that were really clear for a bit and likely hottest. 86 with a DP of 72 here in Purcellville.  The air is thick!

 

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25 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

The HRRR has some smaller cells (nothing too impressive looking) for the metros. Thinking it *could* be distantly similar to the other day when things looked kind of lame and then cells kept training over MoCo. Maybe not to that degree but there could be training or backbuilding I'd think. Think that Flood Watch is more to cover the isolated cases of urban flooding or small creeks that inevitably occur in any storm that lasts more than 10 minutes. 

I see the watch is through 5am. Seems like they're fairly confident in an evolution like the 3kNAM has of the Ohio MCS making it over the mountains and re-strengthening after midnight.

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2 minutes ago, TSG said:

I see the watch is through 5am. Seems like they're fairly confident in the depiction like the 3kNAM has of the Ohio MCS making it over the mountains and re-strengthening after midnight.

A bit OT - but it would be really cool to have a model that was similar to the HRRR where the domain was not the entire country but small regions. Smaller region I'd assume would let it be run more frequently or at a higher resolution. Get a data assimilation system in place that allows for realllllllly good data at the start. Could be fun to see how something like that would perform as a regular part of the forecast models. I know some places (Millersville University had one) have WRFs that they run on their own...but talking more about something at the NCEP level. Though I'm aware that better resolution doesn't always mean better accuracy ;) 

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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

A bit OT - but it would be really cool to have a model that was similar to the HRRR where the domain was not the entire country but small regions. Smaller region I'd assume would let it be run more frequently or at a higher resolution. Get a data assimilation system in place that allows for realllllllly good data at the start. Could be fun to see how something like that would perform as a regular part of the forecast models. I know some places (Millersville University had one) have WRFs that they run on their own...but talking more about something at the NCEP level. Though I'm aware that better resolution doesn't always mean better accuracy ;) 

    It's in development - called the Warn on Forecast System:     https://wof.nssl.noaa.gov

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5 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

Flood watch for all now for the most part it looks like.

will take the under for northern baltimore county…

Rained enough to cancel softball. Second day in a row I’ve driven home through a downpour 

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