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June 2022


bluewave
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Morning thoughts…

At 6:10, a line of showers and thunderstorms stretched from just west of Wilmington, DE to just south of Albany. After some early showers and thundershowers, it will be variably cloudy and cooler. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely as a warm front moves slowly across the region. High temperatures will reach the middle and upper 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 73°

Newark: 77°

Philadelphia: 81°

Tomorrow will be very warm, but much cooler air will arrive for the weekend.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 80.0°; 15-Year: 79.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 82.1°; 15-Year: 82.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.5°; 15-Year: 83.7°

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The next 8 days are averaging  72degs.(63/80) or slightly BN.

Month to date is  71.0[+1.2].       Should be about  71.3[+0.6] by the 24th.

Reached 78 here yesterday.

Today: 69-73, wind s. to w., cloudy, rain-TS by Noon, 72 tomorrow AM.

68*(87%RH) here at 7am.        70* at Noon.

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We are still dealing with the Atlantic blocking pattern that emerged after March 20th. Big reversal from the winter into early spring. The next few weeks will probably determine what kind of summer we have for heat. If the warm ups keep getting pushed back, then this summer probably won’t be as hot as last. If the blocking fades and the WAR can link up with the Plains ridge, then it will be off to the races for the heat.

Where was this pattern during the winter?

Dec 1 to Mar 20 below normal snowfall for many

75F883E6-5811-49D3-832E-A3C335393DE3.gif.c8bb2b1743637e97281f5fbd1401f022.gif
 

Blocking emerges after March 20th with brief warm ups followed by cool downs

F73D51A2-72F9-4A8C-AB00-76F550068D62.gif.5de279df9d2a175d8c587c68226f43b0.gif

 

 

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Toledo, Ohio had a record high of 98° yesterday surpassing the previous record set in 1994. So this will be a rare instance of record heat so close to our west not making it here. The same date back in 1994 Newark set a record high of 101°.
 

Toledo Area, OH
Period of record: 1873-03-01 through 2022-06-15

6/15 98 in 2022 96 in 1994 95 in 1988+

Newark Area, NJ
Period of record: 1931-01-01 through 2022-06-15

6/15 101 in 1994 99 in 1988 99 in 1945
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Rainy days and Monday's  / Here's that Rainy day playing on the radio.  Showers, some storms moving through N - S the next couple of hours.  Much cooler and a somewhat kinda gloomy today where we are likely locked in clouds beyond the rain into mid/late afternoon before the surge (brief) of the Plains/MidWeest furnace blasts through the area Friday (6/17).  Most will see near or low 90s, could be a few stray md 90s in the hot spots. 

The weekend while cooler for sure looks great (California Style) sunny  both days NYC/NJ metro highs 70s Saturday near 80 Sunday with lows 50s / 60s.  A bit warmer by Mon (6/20) but still looks splendid. 

The models build the ride east but again (cooler mid range) as onshore influences and weakness into the northeast create rain / onshore tendencies through 6/24.  We'll see if things trend warmer again and we can see some heat in the Wed - Fri period. 

Beyond Fri (6/24)- The heat is building into the plains and Mid west and longer range now showing the blast into the area Sat 6/25 - flatter flow / higher heights end June into July.   

We have seen many (most) Junes with limited (2-5) 90 degree days, some  had none and then a heat surged the last 3-4 days and into July so this isnt anything unnormal from the past 10/12 years of so.

 

EWR June 90 degree daya:

2021 : 13
2020: 5
2019: 4
2018: 5
2017: 5
2016: 3
2015: 4
2014: 2
2013: 4
2012: 6
2011: 4
2010: 13

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3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Most of it looks to end up SW of the city. The stuff over upstate NY looks to be weakening as it approaches while the storms over NJ are maintaining. 

Ended up being correct. As we know the marine influence negatively effects all but strong warm fronts. I should have factored that in. Our convection season is coming, when water temps get above the mid 70s 

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2 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Another good soaking here as I’m over .5 and raining 

Got a little over a half inch here as well. Nice watering for the vegetable garden. The loud thunder woke me up at 7am. Lots of very close lightning strikes here. There wasn't much wind so it was far from the strongest storm we've had here, but it had the most close lightning strikes of any storm I've had here so far this season.

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4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Ended up being correct. As we know the marine influence negatively effects all but strong warm fronts. I should have factored that in. Our convection season is coming, when water temps get above the mid 70s 

More likely than not we end up with the usual South Shore drought season, delayed not denied. The upper level support also looked to be a bit too far SW for us this morning. 

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