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June 2022


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Looks like June will start out with a blocking pattern. So probably near seasonable temperatures. We’ll have to wait a while for extended 90° heat which has been coming in 1 or 2 day intervals this spring.
 

C7798158-5637-47F3-B529-C8AFC4B53E63.thumb.png.2dd5f9a6fd75c49b4bd375227243a3e6.png
A5F85A43-3B09-46F9-9AE3-5608CF5162A6.thumb.png.d69d168c1c23495383d26803ee251344.png

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5CCC508A-6E8A-4D31-9454-702205BA5528.thumb.png.388d898a715b1ca854a2605b8512ad8b.png



 

 


 

 

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We are coming off 4 warmer summers in a row from 2018 to 2021. Numerous heat and humidity records have been set since 2018. The only other 4 year warm streaks were 2010 to 2013 and 2005 to 2008. The 5th summers had cooler temperatures in 2009 and near normal in 2014. Our last summer with near average temperatures was back in 2017.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/2801/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

Near normal and cool years bolded

Year JJA……NYC boroughs and Long Island…Northern New Jersey 

2021….+1.1….+1.2

2020…+2.6….+2.9

2019…+1.5…..+1.8

2018…+1.7……+1.8

2017…..+0.2….0.0

2016….+2.5….+2.5

2015….+1.4…..+0.8

2014…..-0.1…..-0.1

2013….+1.2…..+1.3

2012…..+1.7…..+1.7

2011…..+2.2…..+1.8

2010….+3.9…..+3.4

2009….-0.6…..-0.6

2008….+1.2……+1.4

2007…..+0.3…..+0.6

2006…..+1.7……+1.6

2005…..+2.6…..+3.3

2004…..-0.3….-0.6

2003…+0.4….+0.4

2002…..+1.6….+2.3

2001…..+0.7…..+0.6

2000…..-1.2…..-1.3

1999…..+2.7…..+2.9

1998….+0.7…..+0.7

1997….-0.3……-0.8

1996…..-0.6….-0.4

1995….+1.4…..+1.8

1994….+1.5…..+1.8

1993….+1.4…..+1.3

1992….-2.0…..-2.3

1991…..+1.8…..+1.7

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4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

I'll call bust on that now... :lol:  All it takes is a hot 4-6 week stretch to put us above normal...

 

25 minutes ago, CIK_62 said:

On beach in CI for 1st. time this year.

Just hit 90 at 2pm---reading my thermometer remotely----but a sea breeze just started too---after hot but dry westerlies.

I just don't see how the trend of the last few years doesn't continue...

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4 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

 

I just don't see how the trend of the last few years doesn't continue...

Very Warm SST's in the NW Atlantic also argue for more warmth-humid nights keeping minimums elevated as well.

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14 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

The wind is strong out of the nw at Jones Beach right now so record temps for the coast should be crushed today. Looking forward to that BDCF

I'm not I only like days like today-- what I expect and want from climate change, I hope we have many more days like today all summer, but 100+ everywhere including here on the south shore!

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17 hours ago, bluewave said:

We are coming off 4 warmer summers in a row from 2018 to 2021. Numerous heat and humidity records have been set since 2018. The only other 4 year warm streaks were 2010 to 2013 and 2005 to 2008. The 5th summers had cooler temperatures in 2009 and near normal in 2014. Our last summer with near average temperatures was back in 2017.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/2801/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

Near normal and cool years bolded

Year JJA……NYC boroughs and Long Island…Northern New Jersey 

2021….+1.1….+1.2

2020…+2.6….+2.9

2019…+1.5…..+1.8

2018…+1.7……+1.8

2017…..+0.2….0.0

2016….+2.5….+2.5

2015….+1.4…..+0.8

2014…..-0.1…..-0.1

2013….+1.2…..+1.3

2012…..+1.7…..+1.7

2011…..+2.2…..+1.8

2010….+3.9…..+3.4

2009….-0.6…..-0.6

2008….+1.2……+1.4

2007…..+0.3…..+0.6

2006…..+1.7……+1.6

2005…..+2.6…..+3.3

2004…..-0.3….-0.6

2003…+0.4….+0.4

2002…..+1.6….+2.3

2001…..+0.7…..+0.6

2000…..-1.2…..-1.3

1999…..+2.7…..+2.9

1998….+0.7…..+0.7

1997….-0.3……-0.8

1996…..-0.6….-0.4

1995….+1.4…..+1.8

1994….+1.5…..+1.8

1993….+1.4…..+1.3

1992….-2.0…..-2.3

1991…..+1.8…..+1.7

They're warm but not really hot like 2010.  Days like today are what I expect and want from climate change, not mediocre "high" temps and swampy humidity.  I also want extended superheatwaves 7+ days above 90 (why dont we have heatwaves like that anymore?) and multiple widespread days of 100+

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18 hours ago, bluewave said:

We are coming off 4 warmer summers in a row from 2018 to 2021. Numerous heat and humidity records have been set since 2018. The only other 4 year warm streaks were 2010 to 2013 and 2005 to 2008. The 5th summers had cooler temperatures in 2009 and near normal in 2014. Our last summer with near average temperatures was back in 2017.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/3004/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/divisional/time-series/2801/tavg/3/8/1895-2022?base_prd=true&begbaseyear=1981&endbaseyear=2010

Near normal and cool years bolded

Year JJA……NYC boroughs and Long Island…Northern New Jersey 

2021….+1.1….+1.2

2020…+2.6….+2.9

2019…+1.5…..+1.8

2018…+1.7……+1.8

2017…..+0.2….0.0

2016….+2.5….+2.5

2015….+1.4…..+0.8

2014…..-0.1…..-0.1

2013….+1.2…..+1.3

2012…..+1.7…..+1.7

2011…..+2.2…..+1.8

2010….+3.9…..+3.4

2009….-0.6…..-0.6

2008….+1.2……+1.4

2007…..+0.3…..+0.6

2006…..+1.7……+1.6

2005…..+2.6…..+3.3

2004…..-0.3….-0.6

2003…+0.4….+0.4

2002…..+1.6….+2.3

2001…..+0.7…..+0.6

2000…..-1.2…..-1.3

1999…..+2.7…..+2.9

1998….+0.7…..+0.7

1997….-0.3……-0.8

1996…..-0.6….-0.4

1995….+1.4…..+1.8

1994….+1.5…..+1.8

1993….+1.4…..+1.3

1992….-2.0…..-2.3

1991…..+1.8…..+1.7

I beg to differ on these hot streaks though.  The only really hot summers in the 00s were 2002 (my favorite) and 2005 (not as great for us on the coast.)  Then we had to wait for 2010 to have our all time summer and 2011 was great in July, but just that month.  2012 and 2013 were good for hitting 100 but not historic like 2010 was.

 

Question.... why are 1991 and 1993 only listed as barely above 1 degree above normal?  Those were historic summers with record numbers of 90 degree days and multiple 100 degree days!  Is this because of the min temp?  That's why I believe that heat should not be judged by min temps....it should only include high temps and the number of 90 degree days-- that's pure heat, while mins just indicate humidity.

 

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be variably cloudy and noticeably cooler in the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas. Farther south including Washington, DC to Philadelphia, today will be another hot day. High temperatures will range lower 70s in the northern Mid-Atlantic region to lower 90s from Washington, DC to Philadelphia. Afternoon or evening thundershowers are possible. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 73°

Newark: 75°

Philadelphia: 90°

Tomorrow will be somewhat warmer. A cold front will bring thunderstorms, some of which could be strong.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 75.4°; 15-Year: 75.8°

Newark: 30-Year: 77.1°; 15-Year: 77.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 78.8°; 15-Year: 79.3°

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6 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I'm not I only like days like today-- what I expect and want from climate change, I hope we have many more days like today all summer, but 100+ everywhere including here on the south shore!

It’’s going to be a while before we get record heat again like we had yesterday. The whole pattern is shifting right as we start June. May featured consistent onshore flow and short periods record heat only lasting a day or two. The record ridge over the Northeast and Great Lakes is getting replaced by a trough. 

May pattern

54DAA0D8-5CBF-449E-87E8-582900952618.gif.2cf7b3f06ce1b54ec6064bdf9e40c0a9.gif

 

Much different pattern into mid-June


884A58DE-CF03-4539-B5EC-7424F517CAEB.thumb.png.76032521fad92df3c5aaefc2b1be921b.png

 

F9B2EB37-27D9-49D3-8DA3-08B6A5BE89E1.thumb.png.96ec97507064460ee896666c65cd6080.png

E2186C40-670F-44DA-8EFF-CBD8812D58CD.thumb.png.97a5951eef0e71d8b512fc82dceed85f.png

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May ended at 64.0[+0.8].

The first 8 days of June are averaging 71degs.(63/77) or +1.

Reached 92 here yesterday.     Was still 88 at 10pm but 73 by midnight.

Today: 65-69, wind e. to n., cloudy, rain late 5pm.-1am., 63 tomorrow AM.

Next GFS T outburst now delayed till mid-month.

Tame T's and 3x Normal rains for the next 10 days, maybe longer...................?

1654063200-68PurF5TWKE.png

65*(72%RH) here at 7am.        68* at 1pm.         62* at 6pm.

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15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’’s going to be a while before we get record heat again like we had yesterday. The whole pattern is shifting right as we start June. May featured consistent onshore flow and short periods record heat only lasting a day or two. The record ridge over the Northeast and Great Lakes is getting replaced by a trough. 

May pattern

54DAA0D8-5CBF-449E-87E8-582900952618.gif.2cf7b3f06ce1b54ec6064bdf9e40c0a9.gif

 

Much different pattern into mid-June


884A58DE-CF03-4539-B5EC-7424F517CAEB.thumb.png.76032521fad92df3c5aaefc2b1be921b.png

 

F9B2EB37-27D9-49D3-8DA3-08B6A5BE89E1.thumb.png.96ec97507064460ee896666c65cd6080.png

E2186C40-670F-44DA-8EFF-CBD8812D58CD.thumb.png.97a5951eef0e71d8b512fc82dceed85f.png

Hey Chris does this resemble what happened in 1996?  Didn't we go into a cool, humid and wet pattern after the May 1996 scorcher then too? Most of the summer lacked 90 degree heat.

Also, specifically for JFK how does the peak May heat of yesterday compare to the peak May heat in 1996? I'm using the same weather equipment I had then and I think it was actually hotter yesterday than it was in May 1996.

Something else which is interesting-- why is it that we've seen more extreme heat in April than in May? It seems like the April max of 96-97 in 2002 and the heatwave we had that month hasn't really been exceeded in May.  You'd think that with a temperature that high in April we would hit 100 in either May or June, but it seems like extreme heat stabilizes in the upper 90s until we hit July.  I wonder why that is?

 

 

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15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Hey Chris does this resemble what happened in 1996?  Didn't we go into a cool, humid and wet pattern after the May 1996 scorcher then too? Most of the summer lacked 90 degree heat.

Also, specifically for JFK how does the peak May heat of yesterday compare to the peak May heat in 1996? I'm using the same weather equipment I had then and I think it was actually hotter yesterday than it was in May 1996.

Something else which is interesting-- why is it that we've seen more extreme heat in April than in May? It seems like the April max of 96-97 in 2002 and the heatwave we had that month hasn't really been exceeded in May.  You'd think that with a temperature that high in April we would hit 100 in either May or June, but it seems like extreme heat stabilizes in the upper 90s until we hit July.  I wonder why that is?

 

 

This is an unusual pattern shift from May to June. Maybe it’s related to the developing -IOD and amplified MJO 7-8? Most of the past years with such a strong May ridge over the Northeast we’re followed by a ridge over the Great Lakes in June. The models have an opposite pattern with a Great Lakes trough into at least mid-June.


65DF523D-CFF8-4B79-8BF7-2517C2D7BD4C.png.8a966d010e11ac1c402b270e81d36fca.png

618BEBEA-5C8E-47C8-BB39-1B4724FC498D.png.2ad38ef299a63c0108dbaa30061e9b6a.png

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’’s going to be a while before we get record heat again like we had yesterday. The whole pattern is shifting right as we start June. May featured consistent onshore flow and short periods record heat only lasting a day or two. The record ridge over the Northeast and Great Lakes is getting replaced by a trough. 

May pattern

54DAA0D8-5CBF-449E-87E8-582900952618.gif.2cf7b3f06ce1b54ec6064bdf9e40c0a9.gif

 

Much different pattern into mid-June


884A58DE-CF03-4539-B5EC-7424F517CAEB.thumb.png.76032521fad92df3c5aaefc2b1be921b.png

 

F9B2EB37-27D9-49D3-8DA3-08B6A5BE89E1.thumb.png.96ec97507064460ee896666c65cd6080.png

E2186C40-670F-44DA-8EFF-CBD8812D58CD.thumb.png.97a5951eef0e71d8b512fc82dceed85f.png

At least in June this sort of pattern translates into mid to sometimes upper 70s which honestly isn't THAT bad (I'd prefer low to mid 80s). I mean a month ago this would have really stunk.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This is an unusual pattern shift from May to June. Maybe it’s related to the developing -IOD and amplified MJO 7-8? Most of the past years with such a strong May ridge over the Northeast we’re followed by a ridge over the Great Lakes in June. The models have an opposite pattern with a Great Lakes trough into at least mid-June.


65DF523D-CFF8-4B79-8BF7-2517C2D7BD4C.png.8a966d010e11ac1c402b270e81d36fca.png

618BEBEA-5C8E-47C8-BB39-1B4724FC498D.png.2ad38ef299a63c0108dbaa30061e9b6a.png

 

 

Wow- there are some hot summers in that list with prolonged heatwaves!

What happened in May 1996 that it didn't hit 90 again until the last day of August?

Also, how does the peak heat from yesterday compare at JFK vs what happened in 1996? They were similar from what I recall, maybe yesterday was even a little hotter than how hot it got in May 1996.

 

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This actually reminds me of years when we have snowstorms in November and it takes awhile for the pattern to reload after that and December is nearly snowless lol.  Usually we end up with a below average snowfall season but sometimes we luck out and end up with a winter at or even above normal snowfall like 2012-13. The snow came back two months later...the analogy in this case would be heat coming back in August (hopefully it happens in July which is our peak heating month and when we have the highest chances of hitting 100.)

 

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1 hour ago, ILoveWinter said:

At least in June this sort of pattern translates into mid to sometimes upper 70s which honestly isn't THAT bad (I'd prefer low to mid 80s). I mean a month ago this would have really stunk.

This may be the first time that the biggest -AO and -NAO drop of the year was delayed until June.


 

3BC37AB5-A072-46B1-9DE9-07A319F69775.thumb.png.b51e5db0309780b845f7c3aad3263187.png

 

407FED40-1601-4F76-A809-44A60E5B7B50.thumb.png.baf87f618022d37b1e86877b125d210c.png

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is an unusual pattern shift from May to June. Maybe it’s related to the developing -IOD and amplified MJO 7-8? Most of the past years with such a strong May ridge over the Northeast we’re followed by a ridge over the Great Lakes in June. The models have an opposite pattern with a Great Lakes trough into at least mid-June.


65DF523D-CFF8-4B79-8BF7-2517C2D7BD4C.png.8a966d010e11ac1c402b270e81d36fca.png

618BEBEA-5C8E-47C8-BB39-1B4724FC498D.png.2ad38ef299a63c0108dbaa30061e9b6a.png

 

-NAO holds, we are shifting ENSO states in the Pacific.

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