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June 2022


bluewave
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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, it’s rare for mid to upper 90s around the Great Lakes not to make it here in June.  


EPS forecast 

June 13-20

4F1E7436-8798-4159-8D6F-8B8AFE765722.thumb.png.59ab9c074494ea4980990377b7274feb.png

June 20-27

102CDE6C-EE8B-40E5-97E7-6EFD6DAC790E.thumb.png.bf503407a07c36184f01b86d5c447e3a.png

 

 

the gfs brings a piece of it thurs/fri now. the euro has a too strong bias with se canada upper systems

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Atmosphere pitching a perfect game?

And consumers across the country are getting notices with their electric/gas bills to raise their thermostats!

Unrelated, but even scarier, is the announcement that hundreds of cities across the country have already exhausted their gasoline budgets.       Police departments are cancelling patrols and anything preventative, and only responding to selective 911 calls.

1654819200-5z2s2kkx7us.png

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Looks like Blackwood, NJ had a brief EF1 Thursday morning. That SW area of NJ has been a hot spot for tornadoes in recent years.

...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR THE JUNE 9TH, 2022 TORNADO EVENT...

.BLACKWOOD/GLOUCESTER TOWNSHIP TORNADO...

RATING:                 EF-1
ESTIMATED PEAK WIND:    90 MPH
PATH LENGTH /STATUTE/:  0.26 MILES
PATH WIDTH /MAXIMUM/:   60 YARDS 
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57 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the gfs brings a piece of it thurs/fri now. the euro has a too strong bias with se canada upper systems

If we only make it to the low 90s like the GFS has later next week, it would be well below the mid to upper 90s forecast near the Great Lakes. 

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If we only make it to the low 90s like the GFS has later next week, it would be well below the mid to upper 90s forecast near the Great Lakes. 

850s support it but it depends on clouds and convection as usual

850th.us_ne.png

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Tomorrow will be variably cloudy and a bit cooler. Overall, temperatures should remain fairly close to normal. No excessive heat appears likely through the weekend.

Excessive heat is sending temperatures soaring in the desert Southwest. Earlier today, Phoenix recorded a low temperature of 87°. That would easily surpass the existing mark of 83°, which was set in 2014 and tied in 2016. Through 3:25 PST, Phoenix has a high temperature of 113°. That breaks the daily record of 111° set in 1978. Finally, the daily mean temperature is 100.0°. That is the earliest such mean temperature on record. The prior mark was set just last year on June 15. Phoenix will very likely see readings of 110° or above through the weekend. Some record high temperatures are possible.

Following two consecutive record warm months, Galveston has had its warmest first 10 days of June with a mean temperature of 86.2°. The previous record of 85.3° was set in 2008.

During the closing week of May, the MJO moved through Phase 6 with an amplitude as high as 1.909. The only case with an MJO passage through Phase 6 with an amplitude of 1.500 or above during that timeframe was 1998. In 1998, the second half of June was noticeably warmer than the first half. The MJO's ongoing progression and the state of Atlantic blocking could impact the outcome for the second half of June.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around June 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +3.87 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.086 today.

On June 8 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.534 (RMM). The June 7-adjusted amplitude was 1.702 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.6° (0.6° above normal).

 

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The next 8 days are averaging 76degs.(67/85) or +4.

Month to date is  70.2[+1.2].      Should be  72.8[+2.5] by the 19th.

Reached 82 here yesterday.

Today: 72-76, wind variable to w., cloudy/breaks, 63 by tomorrow AM.

70*(63%RH) here at 7am.       75* near Noon.       73* at 1pm.       69*/70* during the PM.

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Morning thoughts…

It will be variably cloudy. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s and lower 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 80°

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are likely tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 78.4°; 15-Year: 78.3°

Newark: 30-Year: 80.4°; 15-Year: 80.6°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 82.0°; 15-Year: 82.2°

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18 hours ago, forkyfork said:

850s support it but it depends on clouds and convection as usual

Yeah, the Euro has near record 850s of +24C + in Chicago and around +18C for us next Friday. But the GFS and Euro both have clouds and convection here. The ridge on both models looks a little narrower than we typically get with a 594dm heat dome to our west. When Chicago has gone 94°+ around June 14-15th in the past, Newark has recorded  near to record highs from 95° to 102°. But the Euro and GFS have enough clouds and convection to keep Newark below those levels. So we’ll see how things go later next week here with regard to the clouds and convection.
 

Past years with near to record Chicago heat June 13th to 14th. 
 


Newark highs for June 13-21 in those years

 

2012….99°

1994….102°

1991…..97°

1988….99°

1987….96°

1954….95°

1952….98°

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very impressive La Niña Jet for June. So it’s tough to get any sustained heat here. Plus we get rounds of convection every few days.

 


3C62A77E-37A0-439C-B366-F13B456E7790.gif.2c8f93b93cbbd89dd873affe0948afca.gif

There aren’t going to be a lot of analogs to go to for this upcoming winter, we haven’t had very many 3rd year La Nina’s 

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Tomorrow will be variably cloudy with frequent showers and thunderstorms. The remainder of the week will generally see somewhat above normal to above normal temperatures.

Out west, numerous high temperature records were tied or broken. Records included:

Abilene, TX: 108° (old record: 105°, 2012)
Corpus Christi: 97° (tied record set in 2014)
Dallas-Forth Worth: 103° (tied record set in 1911)
Death Valley, CA: 122° (old record: 121°, 1921)
Denver: 100° (tied record set in 2013)
Flagstaff: 87° (tied record set in 1910)
Las Vegas: 109° (old record: 108°, 1996)
Phoenix: 114° (tied record set in 1910)
San Antonio: 104° (tied record set in 1942)

This morning, Phoenix also recorded a low temperature of 90°. That would smash the daily record of 85° from 2014 and would be the earliest 90° minimum temperature on record. The record was set on June 14, 2018 when the low temperature was 90°. Excessive heat will continue to grip the desert Southwest through tomorrow. Phoenix will very likely again see readings of 110° or above. Additional temperature records are possible.

This heat will move into the Great Lakes region for a brief time during midweek. Temperatures from Chicago to Detroit could challenge or break daily record high temperatures. However, the heat will not move into the Northeast.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.9°C for the week centered around June 1. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.33°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.07°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +6.96 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.444 today.

On June 9 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.231 (RMM). The June 8-adjusted amplitude was 1.528 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 57% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.6° (0.6° above normal).

 

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Tonight with the exception of the CMC, the models so far are heating up. It's kind of a tug of war between the Euro and the GFS which has by running ridiculously hot two runs in a row defied the Euro. The Euro idea of either a big cut-off dropping south from eastern Canada and chilling us until almost the end of June vs. the GFS idea of recurring heat. Up until tonight the ECMWF camp was gaining momentum and traction but the cooler camp seems to have hit a little hiccup in that the GFS which caved to the coolness last night has reverted back to heat for two consecutive runs. Also the GEFS is heating up a bit. If tonight's Euro shows any signs of caving to the GFS, it will be kind of a coup. I wouldn't bet on it, however.

WX/PT

gfs_z500_mslp_us_37.png

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The next 8 days are averaging  75degs.(65/85) or +3.

Month to date is 70.2[+1.1].      Should be  72.2[+1.9] by the 20th.

Reached 75 here yesterday.

Today: 70-75, wind s.,  m. cloudy, rain on/off all day, 68 tomorrow AM.

GFS back to greeting summer with 100's---EURO with the 70's.

66*(90%RH) here at 7am.       Reached 73* at 6pm.

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Morning thoughts…

It will be variably cloudy with showers and thunderstorms. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 70s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 78°

Newark: 82°

Philadelphia: 80°

Tomorrow will be partly sunny and vey warm.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 78.7°; 15-Year: 78.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 80.8°; 15-Year: 80.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 82.3°; 15-Year: 82.5°

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