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June 2022


bluewave
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8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

I was thinking more along the lines of cdw or mmu which are usually close

I see smq and linden just hit 83 at 4pm

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1 minute ago, bluewave said:

These big ridge expansions over the Plains and Great Lakes are closer to 2010-2013 than 2018-2021. Today is the warmest day in Chicago since July 2012. So maybe the Euro will be correct about that big push of heat into our area next week when the ridge amplifies again. 
 

 

If it’s going to happen that we push upper 90s or over 100 that’s how it happens-the drier heat builds up to the west and surges in. We need the westerly downsloping wind to really get the record challenging numbers. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

If the Euro verifies for next week, then it would be the earliest in the season for 597dm+ ridge in the Southeast. 

F7ACF527-59FC-4E36-BAAE-DA416457DDCC.thumb.png.04c3fef4ccdd6090165e1e5486a35c67.png


4ECDB1B8-4FF7-42B1-A715-CBC78E85C6A1.thumb.jpeg.be7874c886fc878af2ac28a4cb859400.jpeg

I'd be cautious buying into this given the flip flopping models have been doing though at some point I'd imagine the heat out west would get here.

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Tomorrow will be another partly sunny and warm day. The passage of a warm front could bring some showers or thundershowers on Thursday. Overall, the remainder of the week will generally see somewhat above normal to above normal temperatures.

Intense heat moved into the Great Lakes Region today. High temperatures included:

Atlanta: 95°
Charleston, SC: 98°
Chicago: 98°
Fayetteville, NC: 100° (tied record set in 1940)
Indianapolis: 93°
Lexington, KY: 95° (old record: 94°, 1943 and 1988)
Rockford, IL: 98° (tied record set in 1987)
Savannah: 98°
St. Louis: 99° (old record: 97°, 1987)

Tomorrow will be another very hot day in parts of the Great Lakes Region before cooler air returns. The core of the heat will not likely move into the Northeast. As a result, New York City will likely see temperatures peak in the middle and upper 80s on Friday. Newark could reach 90°.

The ECMWF seasonal forecast indicates that the summer will be warmer than normal throughout the region and across much of North America. Based on how the pattern has been evolving during the spring transition to summer, it is more likely than not that the warmest anomalies of the summer will likely occur in July and August with June being the coolest of the three months in the Northeast. The latest ECMWF monthly forecast indicates that July will be warmer than June relative to normal and that August will be the warmest summer month relative to normal.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around June 8. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.28°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through the summer.

The SOI was +20.03 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +1.360 today.

On June 12 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 1.251 (RMM). The June 11-adjusted amplitude was 1.141 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 55% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal June (1991-2020 normal). June will likely finish with a mean temperature near 72.4° (0.4° above normal).

 

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Morning thoughts…

It will be partly cloudy and warm. High temperatures will reach the lower and middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 81°

Newark: 86°

Philadelphia: 88°

Much cooler air will arrive for the weekend.

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The next 8 days are averaging  72degs.(63/81) or slightly BN.

Month to date is  70.8[+1.2].     Should be about  71.3[+0.6] by the 23rd.

Reached 88 here at 7pm. yesterday(at least on my balcony)

Today:  77-82, wind se., m. sunny, clouds late, 65 tomorrow AM.

July 04-17 looks AN-else just so-so with no long lasting AN period.

73*(59%RH) here at 7am.     75* at 8am.      77* at 10am.       Down to 74* at Noon.        Reached 78* at 7pm.

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Buffered from the strong heat the next 36 hours (6/15-6/16) before a quick fringe blast on Friday (6/17).  The weekend (6/18 and 6/19)  looks fantastic with sunny /dry and temps near 80 and lows in the 60s  and cooler inland.  Monday (6/20) will remain on the normal/cooler side before a transition to warmer / hotter by Tue (6/22).  Euro brings in strong heat through the 24th/25th with further eastward expansion of the ridge.  

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3 minutes ago, A Moonlit Sky said:

How's the weekend looking? Still temp crashing?

Weekend looks marvelous upper 70s / low 80s day and 50s/60 night.  Monday too.  Change to warmer and hooter coming Tuesday seems to be the progression.  Still need to work out ridge axis and any storms.

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19 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Buffered from the strong heat the next 36 hours (6/15-6/16) before a quick fringe blast on Friday (6/17).  The weekend (6/18 and 6/19)  looks fantastic with sunny /dry and temps near 80 and lows in the 60s  and cooler inland.  Monday (6/20) will remain on the normal/cooler side before a transition to warmer / hotter by Tue (6/22).  Euro brings in strong heat through the 24th/25th with further eastward expansion of the ridge.  

We’ll have to see if the WAR can link up with the Plains ridge near the start of July for more extended heat than these 1 to 2 day brief surges of 90s.

F0BB90B5-7DE6-40AB-94AD-D80384E19031.thumb.png.3b092489522be75bb83a8051a20aeb29.png

 

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3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We’ll have to see if the WAR can link up with the Plains ridge near the start of July for more extended heat than these 1 to 2 day brief surges of 90s.

F0BB90B5-7DE6-40AB-94AD-D80384E19031.thumb.png.3b092489522be75bb83a8051a20aeb29.png

 

we're in the process of a big north atlantic pattern flip so those seeds are probably being planted

eps_z500a_atl_1.png

eps_z500a_atl_22.png

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22 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

we're in the process of a big north atlantic pattern flip so those seeds are probably being planted

That’s what we would expect to happen with the typical La Niña June to July progression. The rough composites have more of an omega pattern in June. The WAR flexes as we move into July. 

2E680442-7CB5-4AF6-A488-8DA2213C3078.png.0d522fbcfca710834ceb3232847bb5f4.png

223CDC25-8D27-49C0-8BAE-2C02EBEBF062.png.f8a0b266bcd783206b77b11b84a2228b.png

 

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2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Weekend looks marvelous upper 70s / low 80s day and 50s/60 night.  Monday too.  Change to warmer and hooter coming Tuesday seems to be the progression.  Still need to work out ridge axis and any storms.

Looks like another one hit wonder for heat next week

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45 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Could go Rick Astley or Beach Boys with multiple hits between 6/22-6/25

The Beatles and the four seasons had at least two top ten hits in a week in 1964…I’m still thinking 100 is not out of the question before July…it was 99 on 6/30/64…and the next day…

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