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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)


Kmlwx
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4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

good, i might be able to sneak an early bike ride in.  got some new tires, so if it rains i'm ready.

on a side note, this continues to be one of the most bizarre weather patterns i've ever seen here.  the atmosphere has absolutely no idea whether it wants to be late september, mid May, or early august.  I haven't been following the indices, but I'm assuming this is some sort of a blocky pattern that cold lovers would be raving about in january/february.  i'm ready for classic dmv summer to begin.

Already got my run in this morning!

I'll push off the DMV summer for as long as possible. It will show up inevitably, so the longer we can go with beautiful weekends like we just had, the better.

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5 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Already got my run in this morning!

I'll push off the DMV summer for as long as possible. It will show up inevitably, so the longer we can go with beautiful weekends like we just had, the better.

agreed.  I'm just glad we've moved on from 55 and windy lol.  Definitely feels like we had a fall, winter, fall, late spring pattern.  Pretty light on storms so far as well, for the most part.  Will see if today changes that and it kicks off typical Summer.

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Roughly along and west of I-95 there is some CAPE beginning to increase. Nothing ridiculous so far - but still an increase. LI values are actually not bad right in the metro area as well. 

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I still like the SVR threat generally being confined to areas west of an axis that bisects DC, although it looks like it could spill eastward by a county.    I do feel better, however, about chances for heavier rain for those of us on the east side of town.    The heaviest rain in the late afternoon will be west of DC, but there seems to be agreement on a lot of showers on the east side of town overnight through Thursday morning.

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1 minute ago, high risk said:

I still like the SVR threat generally being confined to areas west of an axis that bisects DC, although it looks like it could spill eastward by a county.    I do feel better, however, about chances for heavier rain for those of us on the east side of town.    The heaviest rain in the late afternoon will be west of DC, but there seems to be agreement on a lot of showers on the east side of town overnight through Thursday morning.

It definitely seems like a setup where if you're in the right (or wrong) place, you could get trained over pretty good this afternoon and evening. I don't *think* it'll be anything like the training I saw in June 2006, but if the railroad tracks align it could be a hazardous afternoon for the usual standing water/flooding locations. Guessing at least 5 idiots will require water rescue from vehicles today. Will guess 3 pickup trucks and two minivans. 

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1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

It definitely seems like a setup where if you're in the right (or wrong) place, you could get trained over pretty good this afternoon and evening. I don't *think* it'll be anything like the training I saw in June 2006, but if the railroad tracks align it could be a hazardous afternoon for the usual standing water/flooding locations. Guessing at least 5 idiots will require water rescue from vehicles today. Will guess 3 pickup trucks and two minivans. 

There's no way we even come close to June 2006. Setup is vastly different.

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6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Flood watch expanded


Flood Watch
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1003 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

DCZ001-MDZ005-006-011-013-504>506-VAZ052>056-222215-
/O.EXA.KLWX.FA.A.0009.220622T1900Z-220623T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
District of Columbia-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Southern Baltimore-
Prince Georges-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-
Central and Southeast Howard-Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-
Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
Including the cities of Silver Spring, Bowie, Arlington, Manassas,
Westminster, Fredericksburg, Falls Church, Bethesda, Chantilly,
Centreville, College Park, Reisterstown, Columbia, Falmouth,
Herndon, Alexandria, Greenbelt, McLean, Camp Springs, Rockville,
Lake Ridge, Dale City, Suitland-Silver Hill, Laurel, Ellicott City,
Reston, Montclair, Baltimore, Eldersburg, Clinton, Woodbridge,
Washington, Annandale, Cockeysville, Lisbon, Gaithersburg, and
Franconia
1003 AM EDT Wed Jun 22 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by excessive rainfall is possible.

* WHERE...Portions of DC, Maryland and Virginia, including the
  following areas: in DC, District of Columbia. In Maryland,
  Carroll, Central and Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast
  Montgomery, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Howard, Prince Georges
  and Southern Baltimore. In Virginia, Arlington/Falls
  Church/Alexandria, Fairfax, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park,
  Spotsylvania and Stafford.

* WHEN...From 3 PM EDT this afternoon through this evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected later this
    afternoon into the evening. Given a very warm and moist air
    mass, these will produce some very heavy rainfall at times.
    Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible within the
    span of a couple of hours, with locally higher amounts
    possible.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
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6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

There's no way we even come close to June 2006. Setup is vastly different.

Yep - completely - but just in the sense that narrow corridors could see a decent amount of training. I could see a localized spot get sig flooding this evening even as most areas get garden variety heavy rain and some isolated cases of standing water

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1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

It definitely seems like a setup where if you're in the right (or wrong) place, you could get trained over pretty good this afternoon and evening. I don't *think* it'll be anything like the training I saw in June 2006, but if the railroad tracks align it could be a hazardous afternoon for the usual standing water/flooding locations. Guessing at least 5 idiots will require water rescue from vehicles today. Will guess 3 pickup trucks and two minivans. 

And a partridge in a pear tree?

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