aldie 22 Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 Nothing here but sunshine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 1 hour ago, mappy said: Tornado warning Winchester. You ok @WinterWxLuvr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted September 25, 2022 Share Posted September 25, 2022 ooh, I think I just heard some thunder in Arlington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted October 10, 2022 Share Posted October 10, 2022 ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090805 SPC AC 090805 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CDT Sun Oct 09 2022 Valid 121200Z - 171200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 and Thursday/Day 5... A cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward across the western Great Lakes and mid Mississippi Valley on Wednesday. This will occur ahead of a substantial upper-level trough that is forecast to deepen during the day. Due to strong forcing associated with the upper-level trough and cold front, a line of thunderstorms will likely develop Wednesday afternoon. This line of storms should move eastward across the southern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Wednesday afternoon. Although a wind-damage threat will be possible along the leading edge of this line, limited moisture return and weak instability will be problematic for a more widespread threat. An isolated wind-damage threat could continue into the evening as the cold front and line of storms moves into the central Appalachians. The cold front is forecast to move through the Northeast on Thursday, and could reintensify by midday from parts of New York and Pennsylvania southward into the Mid Atlantic. The wind-damage threat could affect areas as far north as New England Thursday afternoon. A 15 percent contour could be needed in either Day 4 or Day 5, once the details become more clear in model runs that come out over the next day or two. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 11, 2022 Author Share Posted October 11, 2022 As is common in these out-of-season events...the NAM and NAM nest favor south and east of the metros for any enhanced activity. meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: As is common in these out-of-season events...the NAM and NAM nest favor south and east of the metros for any enhanced activity. meh. Very true and unlike coastal snow, severe events, particularly large-scale ones tend to trend south and east. This looks no different as earlier times are now favored. However, large scale off season high shear low cape events which normally fail to gusty showers end up being our most impressive outbreaks when they do perform. Probably won't happen this time as the period from early October to early November have never really seen much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 11, 2022 Author Share Posted October 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, 2010 extreme said: Very true and unlike coastal snow, severe events, particularly large-scale ones tend to trend south and east. This looks no different as earlier times are now favored. However, large scale off season high shear low cape events which normally fail to gusty showers end up being our most impressive outbreaks when they do perform. Probably won't happen this time as the period from early October to early November have never really seen much. This is true - especially if it's very dynamic at 500mb (negative tilted trough, well timed, and with some overlap in whatever CAPE is available and the shear and forcing). November 2006 had a very dynamic event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 11, 2022 Share Posted October 11, 2022 3 hours ago, Kmlwx said: As is common in these out-of-season events...the NAM and NAM nest favor south and east of the metros for any enhanced activity. meh. Yeah, definitely looks better south and east of here, where the better instability will reside. A slightly slower system could, however, change things a bit. Pros: good wind fields including some favorable hodographs, good surge of low-level moisture Cons: limited heating leading to crappy lapse rates and very limited CAPE, no real height falls of note (the trough lifts to the northeast, which also explains why it won't be very cold behind the front) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 12, 2022 Author Share Posted October 12, 2022 I'm a little more in today and less meh - but still pretty meh. The latest (06z) NAM nest looked decent. CIPS had a bit of a signal as well...at least as much as you could expect off-peak season. SREF even paints some sigtor ingredients in our region tomorrow on the 21z frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 4 hours ago, Kmlwx said: I'm a little more in today and less meh - but still pretty meh. The latest (06z) NAM nest looked decent. CIPS had a bit of a signal as well...at least as much as you could expect off-peak season. SREF even paints some sigtor ingredients in our region tomorrow on the 21z frame. Yeah, the timing is better, and instability therefore looks ever-so-slightly better. There will pretty clearly be a line of strong convection just ahead of the front. Whether it will contain lightning or be surfaced-based is unclear. Some of the CAMs even suggest some discrete cells in advance of the line. The shear is very strong, and some of the models even suggest some healthy low-level shear, so this event certainly warrants some watching. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted October 12, 2022 Author Share Posted October 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, high risk said: Yeah, the timing is better, and instability therefore looks ever-so-slightly better. There will pretty clearly be a line of strong convection just ahead of the front. Whether it will contain lightning or be surfaced-based is unclear. Some of the CAMs even suggest some discrete cells in advance of the line. The shear is very strong, and some of the models even suggest some healthy low-level shear, so this event certainly warrants some watching. Seems like the kind of day where a bunch of cells with little or no lightning and tops under 35kft will all seem to take on mini-supercell characteristics and perhaps put down a brief tornado. Chaotic kind of days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted October 12, 2022 Share Posted October 12, 2022 LWX afternoon AFD sounds interesting for tomorrow .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As the main upper level trough of low pressure progresses slowly to the east across the Midwest and Great Lakes, a strong surface cold front will push into western Pennsylvania and northwest West Virginia shortly after daybreak Thursday morning. During the course of the morning, additional showers are expected to develop almost anywhere in the CWA with the primary focus in the Appalachians, Virginia Piedmont, and to the I-81 corridor. These developing showers will be scattered, but a more develop line of heavy showers and thunderstorms could develop across western Maryland and northern West Virginia around Noon or shortly before Noon just ahead of the strong surface cold front. This activity could take on such a linear alignment that we may be noting this as a QLCS. This QLCS like others, take shape when there is a strong and persistent southerly flow at the surface and a few thousand feet above ground. Hence, this type of flow allows for increased moisture and brings a component of wind shear to the table with developing convection. Such alignment of showers and thunderstorms brings the main threat of damaging winds. Also sometimes QLCS can produce embedded tornadoes. Hail cannot be ruled out either, but doesn`t seem the higher ranked component as CAPE or instability will be small or marginal. Timing of the heavy showers and strong to severe thunderstorms or QLCS factor seems to be 11am to 1pm in western MD and northern WV, 2pm to 4pm the I-81 corridor, and 5pm to 8pm the metropolitan areas and into southern Maryland. As the cold front clears the respective areas, so does the convection. Once the front passes, a sharp wind shirt is anticipated from west to east. Temperatures Thursday will top out middle 60s to lower 70s, then fall rapidly Thursday evening and night into the upper 30s to lower 40s. As previously mentioned, the airmass filling in behind the front will be Pacific and not Arctic, so Thursday night temperatures may not be as uncomfortable as could be with the airmass discrepancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 Let's reactivate this thread for the late week system. Maybe we can reverse psychology it back to a snow event. Imagine an H5 setup like this in the warm season lol. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 17, 2022 Share Posted December 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Let's reactivate this thread for the late week system. Maybe we can reverse psychology it back to a snow event. Imagine an H5 setup like this in the warm season lol. We'd finally get back our long lost MOD risk day. TOR: 15%, WIND: 45%(hatched), HAIL: 5% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 17, 2022 Author Share Posted December 17, 2022 35 minutes ago, George BM said: We'd finally get back our long lost MOD risk day. TOR: 15%, WIND: 45%(hatched), HAIL: 5% 0% hail but 100% wind and 100% tor lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 So Wednesday of the new year maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 might be time for @yodato start the 2023 severe thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 21 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: might be time for @yodato start the 2023 severe thread... My job - take it super seriously lol - we usually can get away with February. Would be something if we needed it sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 25 minutes ago, yoda said: So Wednesday of the new year maybe? Climo argues for a pencil thin line of gusty showers at best. We'll assess the need for the 2023 thread once we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 31 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: My job - take it super seriously lol - we usually can get away with February. Would be something if we needed it sooner. Hmmmmm...not that I entirely blame you but...2022's thread didn't yield much...gonna need to step up your game in 2023... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 30, 2022 Author Share Posted December 30, 2022 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: Hmmmmm...not that I entirely blame you but...2022's thread didn't yield much...gonna need to step up your game in 2023... I must not have brought my A-game. I blame my real world job 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 2 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Climo argues for a pencil thin line of gusty showers at best. We'll assess the need for the 2023 thread once we get closer SPC mentioned us in their Day 4-8 OTLK and AFD from LWX this afternoon showed intrigue with CAPE discussion and very strong shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 31, 2022 Author Share Posted December 31, 2022 36 minutes ago, yoda said: SPC mentioned us in their Day 4-8 OTLK and AFD from LWX this afternoon showed intrigue with CAPE discussion and very strong shear The weather has been so boring lately other than the wind/rain recently. This is not our severe season...so we will probably fail - but I'm intrigued. It's too far out to do a deep dive yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 31, 2022 Author Share Posted December 31, 2022 I'd venture a guess (not a very gutsy one) that any severe threat will be focused in eastern NC and perhaps SEVA. Maybeeee Southern Maryland or the lower eastern shore can get something as well. Just my two cents for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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