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Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 2


Chicago Storm
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Lake ice is definitely shifting N on the S winds today (click to zoom). Most of this along the south shore and near Chicago will be gone after tomorrow's blustery, mild day. Not sure how much it'll matter for any lake enhancement, but it can't hurt to have more open water. 

CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-local-N_Illinois-02-19_46Z-20220131_map_-12-2n-10-100.thumb.gif.b2b5c10eebe28cf5d29ce9be84d893ad.gif

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14 minutes ago, King James said:

6-10 is too low. The models have been super consistent with our area 

We shall see. I’m not buying the trumped up Kuchera totals at all. 10:1 is a good ballpark considering what ratios will start as (low) and end with (little higher). It’s all overrunning for us as the main storm will largely whiff south. And like I said, we will waste some precip on rain. Changeover time will be crucial. But I’ve wrong a million times before…

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20 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

I am not gonna lie but there was a point in time a little over a day ago I thought this sucker could end up going a bit too far north bringing that nasty ice threat. Lol Guess we can close the book on that sort of thing happening anymore. Won't say it is zero but yeah low.. Back in the days of 07/08 and GHD l we would be wondering who is getting smashed in WI. Yeah GHD ll came back north a bit but not like many of the others prior to that did. 

 

Now for the 18z runs! Start crossing toes, legs etc.. lol 

 

Yeah.  When we were seeing the north trend to early I was concerned also about the ice.  I have noticed the models have improved enough that those major shifts are a bit more rare.  

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ILN dropped some watches. For areas NW of Columbus metro:

OHZ026-034-035-042>045-010415-
/O.NEW.KILN.WS.A.0002.220202T1500Z-220204T1200Z/
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-
Including the cities of Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater,
Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine,
and Marysville
304 PM EST Mon Jan 31 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 6 to 11 inches and ice accumulations of one
  tenth to four tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Central and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills will likely fall below zero
  degrees Friday and Friday night.

And for Columbus metro:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of two
  tenths to four tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana and
  Central and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills will likely fall to near or
  below zero degrees Friday night.
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5 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

We shall see. I’m not buying the trumped up Kuchera totals at all. 10:1 is a good ballpark considering what ratios will start as (low) and end with (little higher). It’s all overrunning for us as the main storm will largely whiff south. And like I said, we will waste some precip on rain. Changeover time will be crucial. But I’ve wrong a million times before…

Agreed.  Not buying those 25-30 in totals either.  Think this 12Z Euro run makes more sense, with the usual 10-15% or so reduction, from a storm(s) total standpoint.  And of course because it keeps the FZ- pinger party away from me :weenie:

 

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20 minutes ago, Gino27 said:

ILN dropped some watches. For areas NW of Columbus metro:

OHZ026-034-035-042>045-010415-
/O.NEW.KILN.WS.A.0002.220202T1500Z-220204T1200Z/
Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-
Including the cities of Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater,
Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine,
and Marysville
304 PM EST Mon Jan 31 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 6 to 11 inches and ice accumulations of one
  tenth to four tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of Central and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From Wednesday morning through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills will likely fall below zero
  degrees Friday and Friday night.

And for Columbus metro:

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of two
  tenths to four tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central and Southeast Indiana and
  Central and West Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
  ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind chills will likely fall to near or
  below zero degrees Friday night.

Both my old stomping grounds of Toledo & Marysville look to cash in nicely here. Glad to see it! I’ll be following ODOT cams eagerly while sitting on my sunny porch in shorts here :thumbsup::snowwindow:

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What are the chances of lightning in the the heaviest bands here? I've seen thundersnow from intense fgen bands before but I really don't know what to look for on the models to have an idea of this possibility. From my understanding, slantwise instability isn't apparent from simply looking at skew-T diagrams, and there's probably more to it than just a sharp horizontal temperature gradient. I'd love to hear input from some of the more knowledgeable members here.

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2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Yeah, I mean Wednesday should be a nice shovellable snow.  Winter only comes around once a year so it's tough not to get greedy though.  But I agree in spirit.

Hopefully the EURO holds and keeps the flicker of the Thursday storm alive.

Im getting a bit more concerned with losing current snowpack and getting more rain. EC going nothing but rain for Tuesday night into Wednesday for me. 

I have 7" OTG and didnt expect so much rain to be forecasted. Unlikely it all washes away, my guess is I lose 3-4" and the rest will turn into a glacier. Also getting a bit nervous Ill be on the lower end of the 4-6" minimum I mentioned haha. Might end up right back at 7" OTG by friday morning so if you slept from today and woke up friday the snow depth wouldnt change haha 

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