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Feb 1-3rd GHD III Part 2


Chicago Storm
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12 minutes ago, IMADreamer said:

I have never seen model's put out this much snow for my neck of the woods. This is exciting. 

and there hasn't ever been this much snow from a storm before (outside of thin meso bands) around here

edit: expect for the record snowstorm in march of (100 years ago?) 

So I'm reducing the max by 20%  in my head

 

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7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Regarding the north shift with the 12z RGEM... The overrunning event was well north, and the main storm system was also north, not surprisingly given the snowfall map.

Grasping for any model that works for N IL even checked ICON which was way south so it was an easy toss!!!

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1 minute ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Seems like a good setup, wondering why we haven't discussed.  Evident on that rgem out above tho

@purduewx80made a quick mention a day or so ago. But yes, it is definitely something that will factor in.

Lack of discussion likely revolves around the big synoptic potential being more of the eye candy.

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Obviously mixing will cut down some of these absurd numbers a bit, but still this is a pretty insane to see so close to the event. Just for context, Toledo averages 37" of snow a year & Findlay gets 25". This storm at a likely 3-6" Wednesday and 8-16" on Thursday could drop over half season's worth in 36 hours. Also lets not forget, the backside of this is going to drop air temps into potentially the negative double digits on Friday

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2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

The northern edge cutoff will be brutal. 12”+ to nothing in about 25 miles. Going to be a fair amount of nowcasting going on regardless of where models continue to lean 

I bet the initial snow with the developing frontal zone will be somewhat convective.  I sharp arctic airmass pushing in will sometimes do that.  There may be some banded variability of totals within the bigger swath.

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2 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Obviously mixing will cut down some of these absurd numbers a bit, but still this is a pretty insane to see so close to the event. Just for context, Toledo averages 37" of snow a year & Findlay gets 25". This storm at a likely 3-6" Wednesday and 8-16" on Thursday could drop over half season's worth in 36 hours. Also lets not forget, the backside of this is going to drop air temps into potentially the negative double digits on Friday

I'm not convinced precip issues (at least of consequence) will make it as far NW as Toledo and Findlay.

They might get occasional sleet mixing in, but unless it's ongoing for an extended period, that doesn't do much to cut down on totals.

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1 minute ago, Powerball said:

I'm not convinced precip issues (at least of consequence) will make it as far NW as Toledo and Findlay.

They might get occasional sleet mixing in, but unless it's ongoing for an extended period, that doesn't do much to cut down on totals.

Oh I am on Wednesday for sure. It'll take a second for the front to pass and the column to completely cool

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10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

@purduewx80made a quick mention a day or so ago. But yes, it is definitely something that will factor in.

Yep, the lake will contribute for sure but almost certainly not to the degree of last Feb's system. If this were lake effect alone, inversion heights are shallow and the boundary layer cloud depths just tap into the DGZ, so it wouldn't be anything wild. Given synoptic support/seeding and a lack of shear in the boundary layer, I think it'll still be an efficient process.

1147653553_ScreenShot2022-01-31at9_47_44AM.png.622ea7fd535f95bee022d4eb06c3651c.png

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