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Everything posted by n1vek

  1. Where that Fri-Sat low ejects looks nice. Still a long way to go, but the wind field should be decent for upslope? And also (tell me if I am wrong), a lot of the long-range models (GFS, Euro) account for terrain variability, but not nearly as much as the mesoscale models do. Curious if in marginal moisture situations this results in some of the ranges being underdone? Maybe I am just being a weenie here.
  2. A lot of the ski & weather social-media accounts are getting onboard for a nice pattern change/stormy December. Operational models, ensembles, teleconnections are supporting the idea. One more weekend of mountain biking at elevation and then hopefully it is ski season.
  3. Just assume the dry scenario will play out.
  4. Have these lows been hitting, just tracking north of my selfish wants and needs here in CO? (Low ejecting into the plains has been north vs last spring's mega-storm. Thus upslope winds have favored WY vs CO)
  5. I am glad we are back to reading raindance posts tracking Kamchatka lows. It has been awhile.
  6. I am very interested to see the Colorado drought map when it is released tomorrow. Last week's iteration didn't catch the Tuesday/Wednesday storm. Add that to the rain we received Monday and we could see additional drought improvement vs the map shown above.
  7. GFS is spinning up another big guy for the Front Range for Monday-Wednesday of next week. I am sure it is over done, but will be interesting to see if other models start to bend towards it. Back in the fall I told the wife how much I wanted wet spring/backloaded winter for fire season. Seem to be getting it as of now (in the eastern half of the state/foothills/divide). I guess it will really all come down to the success/failure of the monsoon in late summer.
  8. GFS seems to keep the party going until at least early next week. Long range has some fun stuff implied as well. Whatever can delay meltout/eat into this drought, I am all for it.
  9. Just tossed up a Blizzard warning. May end up backing our way into the forecasted storm totals if it keeps like like this through the afternoon.
  10. The HRRR is juiced for the rest of today and into the evening. Still may end up getting to the initial forecast estimates if that plays out. Strange, slow event. Looks like Eldora, Winter Park are getting buried today as well.
  11. Pretty brutal miss (thus far) here in the city. Really hope the Estes crew cashed in or hopped in the car for Wyoming.
  12. Returns have moved way north, but snowfall rates still are pretty decent. Odd low-level upslope or something?
  13. Looking at recent guidance, seems like the slower/south camp is working out? Will be interesting to see how this materializes overnight? Someone check me here if I am wrong.
  14. Rates are very high out in Arvada. I'm probably 500' higher than downtown. Accumulating on the grass.
  15. Had a little graupel earlier in the Highlands. Now its a misty/rainy kind of mix. Waiting on the more intense bands to roll through and get the show started.
  16. Nice to see the HRRR coming onboard. Just going to have to watch the radar fill in today. And I guess any southward trend (even 15-25 miles) will make a big difference locally.
  17. @Ji - It is oddly quiet. I lurked/posted occasionally on the Great Lakes forums while living in Michigan and would cheer on the NE during their big events. Not sure if there is another place everyone is landing to discuss weather in this region. The standard deviations from the mean of some of those GFS runs would've crashed the website if an equivalent storm was heading for the i95 corridor.
  18. Saw that tweet yesterday about how the current operational GFS is being put to pasture shortly anyways. I guess we can ride the Para GFS for now (depending on if it is more favorable for my backyard, of course).
  19. Most of the point-and-click forecasts have trended in the wrong direction today. It feels like this guy is going to limp across the finish line in the metro area. Still will be a nice storm, but nothing like the hype some Facebook posts kicked off on Monday posting one crazy GFS run.
  20. These mesoscale models are not really playing ball as of quite yet.
  21. GFS is on a spirit quest right now.
  22. Not to discount the NAM, but the surface low per the maps is just wonky practically sitting over Steamboat. (This is me wishcasting)
  23. +1 for staying at the Stanley if you can swing it. Place is awesome.
  24. I would try and stick around Boulder. Getting up and down the canyon roads might be incredibly really tough. Otherwise maybe Ward or Nederland would be a great place to get snowed in.
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