Jump to content

n1vek

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    232

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by n1vek

  1. n1vek
    Had a little graupel earlier in the Highlands. Now its a misty/rainy kind of mix. Waiting on the more intense bands to roll through and get the show started.
  2. n1vek
    Nice to see the HRRR coming onboard. Just going to have to watch the radar fill in today. And I guess any southward trend (even 15-25 miles) will make a big difference locally.
  3. n1vek
    @Ji - It is oddly quiet. I lurked/posted occasionally on the Great Lakes forums while living in Michigan and would cheer on the NE during their big events. Not sure if there is another place everyone is landing to discuss weather in this region. The standard deviations from the mean of some of those GFS runs would've crashed the website if an equivalent storm was heading for the i95 corridor.
  4. n1vek
    Saw that tweet yesterday about how the current operational GFS is being put to pasture shortly anyways. I guess we can ride the Para GFS for now (depending on if it is more favorable for my backyard, of course).
  5. n1vek
    Most of the point-and-click forecasts have trended in the wrong direction today. It feels like this guy is going to limp across the finish line in the metro area. Still will be a nice storm, but nothing like the hype some Facebook posts kicked off on Monday posting one crazy GFS run.
  6. n1vek
    These mesoscale models are not really playing ball as of quite yet.
  7. n1vek
    GFS is on a spirit quest right now.
  8. n1vek
    Not to discount the NAM, but the surface low per the maps is just wonky practically sitting over Steamboat. (This is me wishcasting)
  9. n1vek
    +1 for staying at the Stanley if you can swing it. Place is awesome.
  10. n1vek
    I would try and stick around Boulder. Getting up and down the canyon roads might be incredibly really tough. Otherwise maybe Ward or Nederland would be a great place to get snowed in.
  11. n1vek
    Rent a snowmobile.
  12. n1vek
    This is when it gets fun. Now we wait for the next run of the Euro. See who blinks first. Or we go into nowcast-time with the GFS dropping 80" in RMNP
  13. n1vek
    12z GFS operational really wraps in some warm air north of the surface low. Obscene snow totals for the higher elevations, but that warm tongue creates a crazy, elevation dependent, gradient up near Fort Collins. As noted above, QPF is still off the charts for both the operation and ensembles.
  14. n1vek
    Given the audacity of the GFS, gotta assume it caves at least somewhat to the rest of the model consensus.
  15. n1vek
    Agreed - GFS southernly trend is there comparing runs this morning. I don't have access to Euro maps, but hopefully OpenSnow posts some views this morning.
  16. n1vek
    I'll be very interested to see how this all models out in the next 12 hours with everything onshore. I could handle a little walk further south. NWS seems pretty good based on their afternoon AFD with that 2-3" qpf range in the metro. Ratios, daytime sun angle may also be a story watching how effectively this will accumulate. That being said, I'll take the moisture however we can get it!
  17. n1vek
    Moved to Denver over the summer, but wanted to check in on the Great Lakes crew getting their first storm of the year. Enjoy it guys.
  18. n1vek
    5" in my point-and-click for Royal Oak, MI. Is that a typo?
  19. n1vek
    Just went out for a drive. A lot more snow than I had expected. I think 3-4" is pretty conservative. Lines up with DTX/MIStorm97. Stebo/SE Michigan crew, up stream is looking pretty good. Is that going to hold together for another wave?
  20. n1vek
    This band over SE Michigan right now has to be approaching max rates I've experienced.
  21. n1vek
    Pretty impressive flake size here in Royal Oak. Looks like we may be 10 miles from a nice 6"+ storm. Right on the edge. Downtown Detroit is lined up for ~3.5" where as the northern burbs may end up with 8". Its a tough storm to be on the southern extent considering how broad the swath of meaningful snow is north of here.
  22. n1vek
    It's been incredible watching the radar over 696 refuse to fill in this morning. Sucker hole.
  23. n1vek
    Lock it in.
  24. n1vek
    Nothing model specific, but locally it is interesting DTX has been riding a 4" call and TWC hasn't budged from their 5-8" call in days.
  25. n1vek
    The GFS precip field seems to hold together much further east vs the recent NAM runs.
×
×
  • Create New...