Cary67
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Everything posted by Cary67
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Given your location synoptic snow should be banned.lol
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Exactly.Not a fan of high winds and tree damage.
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From microburst this September in my neighbors yard.Good times
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NAM will whip back and forth every run with that narrow band like an unattended firehose
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The tread marks of SLPs over LOT's head is growing tiresome. 12Z suite shows no let up with this rain, zr pattern. Cold rain till mid March seems likely.Amended based on longer range models make that cold and dry with suppression of systems to start March
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Even if it shifts further SE the WAA seems to just bring the possibility of ice into the LOT area moreso than snow.
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Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Cary67 replied to snowlover2's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
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Winter 2018-19 Medium/Long Range Discussion
Cary67 replied to snowlover2's topic in Lakes/Ohio Valley
Storm track should perhaps slide SE with cold air pressing. May open opportunities for OV and EC. Out to 8 to 14 days. 11-16 days cold overwhelms pattern if you believe what the GEFS is selling -
4.0" here
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2.5" down here
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Snowing moderately here with 3-5" possible
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3K NAM
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12Z 12K NAM
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So this is replacing the current GFS? If so, wonder what sort of qualitative analysis has been done. Seems to fail the eye test so to speak.
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Does it show that warm layer poking it's way up through Chicago yet.lol
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DGEX's 1st cousin
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You definitely had more ice than my area. Seems we had more sleet than zr. About .2 ice accretion
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What do Lake and McHenry fall under? Sleet storm warning
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Yeah my area is a mix and figure it will stay that way the rest of the night. Maybe .5"down and now comes the crust.Tonights forecast of 4-7" looks good if you live in Lake Geneva WI
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Started as snow looks to have switched over already. Correction just stopped
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I don't think Euro is seeing the slop fest the hi res models are seeing for extreme Northern IL. Euro has the 3-6" look whereas the NAM has a mix almost at onset with it just rain in the loop parts of the event. Going with more ice and mix than snow for most of northern tier counties .10-.25 ice accretion along with 2" snow.
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0Z 3K NAM showing ice/sleet vs snow
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Hope so but 18Z NAM looks to push more FZR up to the state line with a bit of a dry slot followed by a deformation axis just south of Chicago. Seems like were in a position of high bust potential at least snow wise
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Not a good look for Chicago area.
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6Z GFS
