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About snowstormcanuck

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    snow > you
  • Birthday 08/06/1986

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    Etobicoke, ON
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    your mom

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  1. 18z NAM is trying to switch YYZ to +SN as early as 22z tomorrow. I think that's really ambitious and it does have a bias of being too cold with low level temps. If things break right could be a 2-4" plastering after the drenching.
  2. D. Final grade.
  3. I'm glad things have worked out for you but I don't think you can merely use your past good fortune with snow as a predictor of future good fortune. For all we know these past two mediocre winters are the beginning of the slide. But it makes no sense to argue about it. Let's just see how the next decade unfolds. We call it pop here too (mostly) but I didn't want to say "pop bubble popped". lol
  4. You know when you pour a soda into a glass and the fizz bubbles begin to disappear almost at random. That's the analogy I use when I think about the effects GW has on our regional climate. We were unlucky and one of the first to have our snow bubble popped. You've been luckier, but your time will come. Not that I'm rooting for that. Obviously, I hope we can stop or curtail climate change (at least the anthropogenic part of it). But if not, eventually, inevitably, all bubbles will be burst.
  5. I believe I read somewhere that starting this winter (16-17) YYZ switched from a nipher to a snow saber for measuring purposes. I have noticed that the amounts recorded during the two 6"+ events were comparable to the downtown station and reasonable to what I observed. So at least going forward maybe we can start using YYZ data for climatological analysis, especially considering the downtown station's data completeness has started to get a bit patchy the last decade or so. Growing up a very good winter to me was when we hit 60". It our new AGW reality, might be tough to ever do that again.
  6. Looks like spring's here for good starting next week. Good riddance to winter 2016-17. Glad I didn't spend much time tracking. 90% of our seasonal snowfall came in about 72 hours. lol
  7. LOL an inch and change. Maybe 1.5" out there. Underwhelming to say the least. Looks like I picked the wrong storm to take a semi-interest in. Oh well. Always next year.
  8. No...that was a reasonable expectation. Still possible though unlikely. But GHD 2011, Non-snowstorm of February 2012, Phantom Bomb of February 2009, April 2012 melt on contact fiasco...these are all way bigger busts than what this will end up being.
  9. Lol it's really not going to be that bad of a bust. EC was calling for 10-15cm...we're at about 2 now. We'll definitely get to the 6-8cm range. That's a bust, but not to the magnitude of what you're describing. I think a lot of people were thinking this was going to be a foot+ storm for us. That's the problem with twitter and some of these media outlets.
  10. That band grazed downtown Toronto earlier. We were getting some decent rates then. Now it's the softest of snizzles. I thought 6" was doable do to the long duration but we're going to need something more than this to make it happen.
  11. Really long fused by I think about 6" when all's said and done looks reasonable for Toronto. Subtle shifts in the ul/sfc low will have a major impact though as I think the northern QPF boundary will be tighter than what the RGEM/UKIE are trying to sell. There's a lot of dry air associated with that banana high. Nail biter for Boston on the EURO...lol.
  12. Well the NAM certainly didn't cave.
  13. I'd go 2-3" for Toronto. Hamilton-Niagara look primed for a decent LEnhS event. Could get foot lollis unless weakening trend continues and dry air eats away at single band potential.
  14. We've seen in the past where models creep back from an over-correction. At this point I wouldn't buy into the <0.10" QPF the GFS is spitting out. But still a worrying trend.
  15. Was hoping that with better sampling the main s/w would trend stronger and slower. Unfortunately the opposite has happened. Assuming a whiff/near whiff this has gotta rank as one of the worst second halves of winter I've ever experienced. Even the futility winter of 11-12 had more dusting-1" events scattered about.