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About blizzardof96

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    N of the 401

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    Toronto, ON

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  1. Check out the differences in the mid-level warm sector: GFS NAM
  2. A key piece looks to be the leading Quebec vortex which really helps determine where the thermal boundary sets up behind. If the vortex digs further south, the confluence zone also ends up further south and you get more of a GFS like track. If the opposite occurs, there's more room for the great lakes energy to amplify further NW.
  3. We can get a good idea of where the snow swath & dynamic cooling set up on the model by looking at 925mb temps. Notice the razor sharp temperature gradient along the south side of the band.
  4. For late April...the upper level cold pool looks very impressive with this event. The source region of the air mass comes from the Siberian side of the pole with 250mb flow vectors pointing due south from Nunavut. A wave then develops along the thermal boundary which is how we get our snow swath.
  5. Four-panel map of the 1997 blizzard...
  6. Impressive parameter space in place for today! I hope everyone stays safe.
  7. I had a bit of fun yesterday and plotted out a four panel map of the 1974 "Super Outbreak". I thought I would share the data here for those interested.
  8. Today marks the 50th anniversary of Quebec's "Storm of the Century" which set an all time 24hr snowfall record in the city of Montreal. 43cm was recorded during that time period with wind gusts >110km/hr creating two storey snow drifts.
  9. Good points. Delta-Ts and lake convergence were stronger with that event...leading to higher totals. The stationary nature of that band also helped. I find that NE flow tends to lock in more often while E flow tends to be more of a windshield wiper.
  10. Nice wintry feel. I'm glad the forecast worked out well.
  11. Nice. I just measured 4" of fresh snow on my driveway (24 hour total).
  12. Measured 2" here in North Toronto at 6PM.
  13. 0z RGEM remains adamant on a big hit for city of Toronto
  14. Some of the issues with that mid-December event: 1) Dry profiles 2) Lower delta-Ts (850s were closer to -8C) and shallower arctic air 3) Significant veering between sfc-850mb 4) Weaker model support in terms of intensity/duration I think we have a more favourable setup this time, but we'll see what happens tomorrow. RADAR won't be too helpful given the shallow nature of the banding. With lower beam heights, KBUF will likely pick up on it better than WKR.