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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


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1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Yeah, well, my bar is really low. It could possibly get pulled in a bit.

 Honestly 2-3 inches would be a major success to me at this point.

You're in such a better spot than most here. Currently under a WSW, with a possible 3" or more. lol gtfo

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This.

Just now, mappy said:

You're in such a better spot than most here. Currently under a WSW, with a possible 3" or more. lol gtfo

Heck, this is a rare instance where I am even in a better spot than many of the people on this board. I'm basically on the bay in Pasadena.

 

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5 minutes ago, KAOS said:

This.

Heck, this is a rare instance where I am even in a better spot than many of the people on this board. I'm basically on the bay in Pasadena.

 

Agreed. I've been telling my mom she's in a better spot than me for this one. 

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

lol the ROI on this hobby

Expecting Models to be able to grasp complicated setups 4-5-6-7 days out and not waiver from them, when they are simply educated guesses, is a fools errand. Go in with reasonable expectations for storms like an east tracking Miller b with no blocking and you won’t feel so let down my friend. 

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6 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Expecting Models to be able to grasp complicated setups 4-5-6-7 days out and not waiver from them, when they are simply educated guesses, is a fools errand. Go in with reasonable expectations for storms like an east tracking Miller b with no blocking and you won’t feel so let down my friend. 

True. But, and I think you’ll agree, modeled solutions and reality will diverge the further out in time you go. Reality will either be better or worse than what is modeled at say day 5. Rarely will it be the same. So why does it seem that reality is seldom better than what was modeled? You’d think it would go both ways but seemingly does not.

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1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said:

Are you sure? I live in Northern Delaware. Who gets more precip, me? Baltimore? DC?

 

image.png

 

I wasn't referencing the GFS in my post, but your actual forecast from Philly/MtHolly

Winter Storm Watch, and 3+ on their snowfall maps. 

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2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not by much. Another adjustment or two like this....

But this is the fallacy that gets us into trouble. There is no continuity between runs. Next run is just as likely to shift the other way.  The better argument might be that perhaps the Gfs still struggles with phases involving multiple waves and chases convection or keys the wrong wave. It used to do that. No idea if it still does. 
 

Frankly over the last 72 hours I fail to see how anything has changed much. The consensus is still about the same. Some of the players swapped sides or shifted here or there but still looks like the big storm potential is east of the bay on most guidance with maybe some very minor accumulations west of the bay. 

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But this is the fallacy that gets us into trouble. There is no continuity between runs. Next run is just as likely to shift the other way.  The better argument might be that perhaps the Gfs still struggles with phases involving multiple waves and chases convection or keys the wrong wave. It used to do that. No idea if it still does. 
 

Frankly over the last 72 hours I fail to see how anything has changed much. The consensus is still about the same. Some of the players swapped sides or shifted here or there but still looks like the big storm potential is east of the bay on most guidance with maybe some very minor accumulations west of the bay. 

Yeah so far there has been no consistent trend with this storm. Just been going back and forth and correcting to the mean of the GFS and Euro.

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But this is the fallacy that gets us into trouble. There is no continuity between runs. Next run is just as likely to shift the other way.  The better argument might be that perhaps the Gfs still struggles with phases involving multiple waves and chases convection or keys the wrong wave. It used to do that. No idea if it still does. 
 

Frankly over the last 72 hours I fail to see how anything has changed much. The consensus is still about the same. Some of the players swapped sides or shifted here or there but still looks like the big storm potential is east of the bay on most guidance with maybe some very minor accumulations west of the bay. 

Wish more people would read and retain this. So important to grasp these facts and change mindsets so we can be more objective moving forward. 

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But this is the fallacy that gets us into trouble. There is no continuity between runs. Next run is just as likely to shift the other way.  The better argument might be that perhaps the Gfs still struggles with phases involving multiple waves and chases convection or keys the wrong wave. It used to do that. No idea if it still does. 
 

Frankly over the last 72 hours I fail to see how anything has changed much. The consensus is still about the same. Some of the players swapped sides or shifted here or there but still looks like the big storm potential is east of the bay on most guidance with maybe some very minor accumulations west of the bay. 

Plenty of us have been mentioning the idea of convergence on a likely ultimate solution, though I suppose you could argue that the run-to-run changes (both within and outside of each suite) have been fairly consistent over the last few days, which fits your take that there have been no real trends - just waffling back and forth that sets the goalposts.

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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But this is the fallacy that gets us into trouble. There is no continuity between runs. Next run is just as likely to shift the other way.  The better argument might be that perhaps the Gfs still struggles with phases involving multiple waves and chases convection or keys the wrong wave. It used to do that. No idea if it still does. 
 

Frankly over the last 72 hours I fail to see how anything has changed much. The consensus is still about the same. Some of the players swapped sides or shifted here or there but still looks like the big storm potential is east of the bay on most guidance with maybe some very minor accumulations west of the bay. 

It's a shame that we cannot get consistent simulations for an under-observed, highly chaotic, strongly nonlinear system with finite computing. I need a new career.

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