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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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7 minutes ago, Ji said:
40 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:
This is crazy complex, evidently. Never seen models change so much based on nearly imperceptible changes at h5.
Ill stick to what I said earlier. It may be tonight before we know. Heck it might be tomorrow morning. Lol

We've known for days. How did the rectal checkup go?

Good. How’d your lobotomy go?

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13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

6z Euro is largely the same, but over the last few runs it has incrementally shifted eastward, focusing the heavier snow in the immediate coastal areas.

psu fringe alert for my yard lol.

I was trying to estimate your location in relationship to the precipitation banding isn't your location close to the bands between .31 and . 41 on the 6z Euro ? If so you thinking 3 maybe for you ? up my way I am in the same banding but have little expectations.

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9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Why do the gods of precip hate Winchester so much? Lol

Said this a couple days ago.  I hope every low from now on goes straight up the OH valley.  So sick of being fringed out by these coastals.  Everyone of these has fringed us since 2016.

Give me a WAA thump followed by light drizzle, dry slot, then cold front.

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

I was trying to estimate your location in relationship to the precipitation banding isn't your location close to the bands between .31 and . 41 on the 6z Euro ? If so you thinking 3 maybe for you ? up my way I am in the same banding but have little expectations.

I am just NW of the 0.5" line on the 6z run.

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Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

Said this a couple days ago.  I hope every low from now on goes straight up the OH valley.  So sick of being fringed out by these coastals.  Everyone of these has fringed us since 2016.

Give me a WAA thump followed by light drizzle, dry slot, then cold front.

really moved toward a nothing burger without cheese and bun at my house too.  looking at the euro I might not see anything because this time I am too far west...go figure.   MBY has been a lot of things but too far west is relatively new one.  

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15 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I don't know why people keep saying they don't know what's going to happen or the models are terrible. You are going to get what you get from a Miller B in a La Nina and models have consistently showed that. If you are west of the bay, you will have the back edge of light snow either over you or just to your east. If you are right along the coast, you will either get a big snowstorm or the big totals will be just out over the ocean and you will get some decent snow. The models have shifted like 50 miles either way for days now. They've done a good job showing you what will generally happen.

This seems like you’re contradicting  yourself in this post.  50 miles for ppl like @CAPE and our southern MD and eastern shore folks means quite a bit.  I don’t see any issues with ppl watching models and hoping for some better runs to the corridor. .5 qpf on the euro is like 50-60 miles east of 95. 

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15 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I don't know why people keep saying they don't know what's going to happen or the models are terrible. You are going to get what you get from a Miller B in a La Nina and models have consistently showed that. If you are west of the bay, you will have the back edge of light snow either over you or just to your east. If you are right along the coast, you will either get a big snowstorm or the big totals will be just out over the ocean and you will get some decent snow. The models have shifted like 50 miles either way for days now. They've done a good job showing you what will generally happen.

We don’t know. For me the range is nothing to perhaps as much as 3-4. That’s not knowing.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

We don’t know. For me the range is nothing to perhaps as much as 3-4. That’s not knowing.

Yeah, a low is going to be out there, that is about all i'm on board with. Guidance has shifted from perhaps 1" to over 12+" in my backyard the last few days. Just waiting for tomorrow evening to get here so I can gaze at a radar and out of my window.

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55 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Wouldn’t be the first time we saw big changes inside 48 hours this winter. January 3rd looked fairly lost until 48hr out. The storm after that looked good for us pretty much all week long, went way west in the final 48hr and still ended up tracking west of what was progged hours before the storm hit. This storm could also end up even worse than what’s being modeled (energy’s left behind, late / weak phase, etc)

Def. not expecting some magical massive shift that gives us all a foot, but I also wont completely rule out a 3-6” storm along 95 either given the clear lack of consensus among models in such a complex setup.  Long shot or not. 

Feeling the potential of big changes today. Lol I don’t give up until it’s over!

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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

We don’t know. For me the range is nothing to perhaps as much as 3-4. That’s not knowing.

Everyone should read the disco I posted earlier.

Folks along and even NW of I-95 should be pretty interested in the next few model cycles, in addition to those of us further east. A few inches in those locations is still a possibility, maybe more if a 0z CMC like solution ends up more correct.

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