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Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...


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1 minute ago, weatherwiz said:

I like the slight tick east...was getting worried I might have to push totals more west in CT and really worry about subsidence

Phew, well I'm sure everyone feels better about missing an historic snowstorm knowing that at least you don't need to make a new map. :) 

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1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

It's so odd. It's like "hey my warm conveyer belt is so strong that I'm going to deepen a low to the same pressure as the parent low. Then when we get to 40 N the parent low is like "where you going? Get back here. and captures the second low."

Ya' if just looking at surface analysis it almost looks like it jumps S at hour 30.

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1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

It's so odd. It's like "hey my warm conveyer belt is so strong that I'm going to deepen a low to the same pressure as the parent low. Then when we get to 40 N the parent low is like "where you going? Get back here. and captures the second low."

Yea I mean the biggest impact is that we shed some of the rapid deepening early on —after hr 15 or so. Positive feedback is slowed, and therefore the H5 occlusion slows. It’s odd. Early on shows the trough going negative sooner, but then stymied by the “tropical low” wanting to kick east—misaligning the deepening and surface pressure falls.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM still captures it south of islands. Just took longer this run.

Not an expert on the duel low scenario, but given the incredible potency of the upper levels (500 especially) I'm not sure a duel structure can last long before the surface structure gets consumed / consolidated into one very intense low???  I'm open to being schooled here, but how can a duel structure last under this upper air configuration.  As 40/70 inquired, do you have any good historic similarities?  

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea I mean the biggest impact is that we shed some of the rapid deepening early on —after hr 15 or so. Positive feedback is slowed, and therefore the H5 occlusion slows. It’s odd. Early on shows the trough going negative sooner, but then stymied by the “tropical low” wanting to kick east—misaligning the deepening and surface pressure falls.

I don't think we will know exactly how those meso nuances of the cyclogenesis will evolve until they happen.

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