Powerful Multi-regional/ multi-faceted east coastal storm now above medium confidence: Jan 29 -30th, MA to NE, with snow and mix combining high wind, and tides. Unusual early confidence ...

[dryslot]

Ha, I was at gritty's having lunch with a buddy of mine from wrentham and about 4 others gathered around my cell when that Euro run came in, Oh Yeah!

[EastonSN+]

3 minutes ago, tomcatct said:

I am close to you and I'm optimistic we get more than modeled. 

The heavy bands sometimes rotate further west of modeling so I think we may do pretty well.

Yeah being this close we can't turn our backs on this.

I remember NEMO the mega band was supposed to be RI and ended up central western CT.

[amarshall]

Just now, HinghamBoss said:

South Shore should issue some flares to folks to verify existence/life.  I've always wondered what it would take to really shut down a region '78 style from a storm. 

 

Winter 2015 definitely got close - but that was over a few weeks of storms.

 

  

Going to a family party saturday afternoon/night in Wayland.  Going to miss one of the all time greatest blizzards at my house.

[CT Valley Dryslot]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This gets them all near or over a foot 

Not in Northern Fairfield, Litchfield and Berkshire Counties.

[CCHurricane]

Waiting for the Kuchie Euro maps 

[Damage In Tolland]

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

All the WOR peeps are either silent or left the thread after that run.

Another mediocré 6" storm for them.

I’m in the 1” qpf zone…no 6” storm here. 

[Roger Smith]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

I mean, we've seen triple phasers before -- max potential usually in the 960's at 40N?  what is the history of non-tropical lows sub 960 at ~40N.  I don't know of any 950's examples in my lifetime. I think anything lower than that is suggesting a warm-core sub tropical entity, which never made sense in peak winter climo.

I think 965ish should have always been the extreme high end bar for non-tropical low such as this, at 40N. 960 ish further north in the GOM. 

The Great Lakes blizzard of Jan 25-26 1978 reached a central pressure of 955 mbs at Sarnia ON (south end of L Huron lat 43N) around 12z 26th. I know of some storms that have hit eastern Canada into the low 940s but that is further north of course. You could also look up data for a storm on Mar 1-2 1914 near NYC that had very low central pressures (and gave NYC 14" snow, don't know what happened in New England, the low was south of Islip).

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

We never touched upon this in any classes but when taking wind into account for it's impact on ratios is it surface winds, winds aloft, a combination of both and then I guess what would you subtract off in terms of ratios for wind? This is something I have zero knowledge on. 

I don't have a magic formula on how to deal with wind, but experience over the years has taught me that in higher wind storms (and temps comfortable below freezing), the ratios will tend to converge onto typical "Cold climo ratios" that you see, say, in interior NY state...which is in the 13 to 1 or 14 to 1 range.....now further inland where winds might be a little lighter, if they get under a death band, then I could see the overall ratios being more like 16 to 1 or something.

[wxsniss]

This was among the best Euro runs we've had...

Haven't seen the "B" word used in any Box AFDs yet... that should change today

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, CT Valley Dryslot said:

All the WOR peeps are either silent or left the thread after that run.

Another mediocré 6" storm for them.

We're still here, bleeding...but congratulating the better team for their win. 

This could be an event where Danbury gets 2" and Waterbury picks up 12". I'll be heading east on 84 though so be on the lookout for the weenie truck. 

[weatherwiz]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I don't have a magic formula on how to deal with wind, but experience over the years has taught me that in higher wind storms, the ratios will tend to converge onto typical "Cold climo ratios" that you see, say, in interior NY state...which is in the 13 to 1 or 14 to 1 range.....now further inland where winds might be a little lighter, if they get under a death band, then I could see the overall ratios being more like 16 to 1 or something.

Gotcha, thanks! 

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

I’m in the 1” qpf zone…no 6” storm here. 

…if it’s right. 
 

I think it’s closest to verifying, but a last minute shift east kills us. Razor’s edge here.

[dryslot]

[WxFreak11]

When would Watches change to Warnings?

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Def did not expect Euro to double down.

I did...

seriously, I'm a ********  .. well, I am but not of this.  This thing's U/A mechanics are superb.. the lows have all been situated too far E of that mid level forcing. 

That can happen, but I am noticing a definitive trend to keep the 700 to 300 mechanical structures at longitude/latitude scaffolds, while successive runs fight to inch the lows west to meet. 

I don't think this is done trending either, though dramatic shifts may be a thing of the past.  This can afford to bomb closer, and if/when it does, those feedback height falls from that processes will encourage the collocation of the mid level features, and all this ends up correcting to ACK in my mind.

That's just farmer Met John's hot take, but it is where my visualization resolves this for the time being. I don't see this modulating enough to change that perspective, so it could just be wrong. Just sayn'

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

Now convert QPF to 15-20:1 ratios. That would be a hellava lot more than 36"

RGW

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weatherwiz said:

Gotcha, thanks! 

No problem...ratios are tough because you have to deal with multiple variables....also in larger storms, the weight of the snow on itself is going to limit ratios. IT's a lot easier to get a 20 to 1 fluff ratio in a 7-8" storm than it is in a 18" storm.

[RI Rob]

Just now, dryslot said:

Seems reasonable to me.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

6 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We're still here, bleeding...but congratulating the better team for their win. 

This could be an event where Danbury gets 2" and Waterbury picks up 12". I'll be heading east on 84 though so be on the lookout for the weenie truck. 

It hurts, enjoy guys. So close but there will be no cigar here. Still waiting on our first widespread 18”+ in 9 years this side of the river.  We hope for 3-6” here. 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

I did...

seriously, I'm a ********  .. well, I am but not of this.  This thing's U/A mechanics are superb.. the lows have all been situated too far E of that mid level forcing. 

That can happen, but I am noticing a definitive trend to keep the 700 to 300 mechanical structures at longitude/latitude scaffolds, while successive runs fight to inch the lows west to meet. 

I don't think this is done trending either, though dramatic shifts may be a thing of the past.  This can afford to bomb closer, and if/when it does, those feedback height falls from that processes will encourage the collocation of the mid level features, and all this ends up correcting to ACK in my mind.

That's just farmer Met John's hot take, but it is where my visualization resolves this for the time being. I don't see this modulating enough to change that perspective, so it could just be wrong. Just sayn'

waiting on the EPS but this may come west and crush most Euro was very close to doing that

[WeatherWilly]

My forecast range stands at 8-30 inches

[dryslot]

[wxsniss]

4 minutes ago, CCHurricane said:

Waiting for the Kuchie Euro maps 

This is just for fun... obviously these are excessive, but even so not often we see this depiction...

[PhineasC]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Saved by the blob over my house that keeps showing up. 

[dryslot]

Rates will be off the charts with this.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

…if it’s right. 
 

I think it’s closest to verifying, but a last minute shift east kills us. Razor’s edge here.

Yup, a big IF. The same people who berate the euro time and time are again suddenly taking it for face value. 

We'll see what the next 48hrs brings but this is about as far nw as this can get. Just have to keep the east slides to a min out here. 

[weatherwiz]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

No problem...ratios are tough because you have to deal with multiple variables....also in larger storms, the weight of the snow on itself is going to limit ratios. IT's a lot easier to get a 20 to 1 fluff ratio in a 7-8" storm than it is in a 18" storm.

That's very true. I wonder if we'd be better off having an airmass that wasn't as cold. given how cold it is aloft and the type of dendrites we'll likely produce, I would think this can make them more susceptible to being ripped apart. IIRC correctly, I think ratios in 2013 and 2015 under the band were like around 15:1 or so right? 

[DomNH]

ORH gets obliterated under the weenie band on that run. 

[snowman21]

3 minutes ago, WxFreak11 said:

When would Watches change to Warnings?

Tomorrow morning or tonight maybe? I think it happens once you're inside of 24 hours.