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Jan 6/7 "Event" and obs


stormtracker
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7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

You’ll get nothing and like it Spaulding 

0B035028-9A43-4BD1-81CA-87745551C00B.webp.c380137770c47301d912de4d8102b8ac.webp

I like the RGEM a lot better... that would be just about perfect. I try to enjoy the small ones but that half inch on the GFS is pushing it for me :lol:

The RGEM seems to have a weaker initial NS disturbance on the H5 maps compared to the GFS, so we really need that to weaken.

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Lwx is pretty bullish in their afternoon disco. The maps make sense too given that the upper level energy is further north than Monday. Just need to avoid a late transfer. I’m assuming the models might jump around a bit with the max precip until that’s figured out.

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12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Anecdotal evidence but strongly agree and have thought the same thing for at least 8-10 years. Hot hands rotate. We see it every winter. Gfs does ok in the mid range with northern stream shortwaves. Often the first model to pick up on one with potential. Euro does a nice job with pure southern stream waves in the mid range most of the time. Other than that, it's best to keep an open mind and apply your yard climo and what usually happens with a similar setup. Personally, I stick to the euro/gfs combo and just blend them with my yard climo. Works well for mid range thoughts. 

Thing is, we're focusing on an acre of land with a model that covers every acre on the planet. What we often think are huge shifts really aren't. Some are absolutely miniscule but the sensible effect is huge. This often results in unfair criticism but that's a whole nuther barrel of worms. 

 

 

Funny...I often think about this during the warm season.  What if this was snow?  Models calling for .5-.75" and we end up with .25"  Nobody cares when its 65 and rain...hardly even mentioned or noticed. In Jan ending up with 1-2" when the forecast was 4-8" would create epic meltdowns.  As winter approaches we all get out our magnifying glasses and browbeat any model not within .2" of verification. 

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The majority of the models have those of us out towards Winchester getting the bulk of our precip from an early band of snow that runs up the Shenandoah Valley ahead of the main system. If that doesnt happen we will end up getting fringed again. It is what it is. 

That is without a doubt the most reliable precip we get here.

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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

The majority of the models have those of us out towards Winchester getting the bulk of our precip from an early band of snow that runs up the Shenandoah Valley ahead of the main system. If that doesnt happen we will end up getting fringed again. It is what it is. 

It’s ok a lotta chances in the LR..yep a lot going on

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