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32 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Personally I don't think humans have to fear climate change. Don't get me wrong we should do what we can to prevent it, but it is gradual and we can change with it. I think what we should be most looking out for is a meteor. Like the dinosaurs it can end us almost immediately. By the way, I think if the earth could talk, when people say we have to safe the earth, the earth would laugh and say no way you can destroy me. We can destroy ourselves but not the earth.

Considering we're already seeing horrible effects of climate change and there's no major meteor threat for decades I would focus on the former. 

Massive western droughts causing water shortages (Lake Mead), major flooding (land & coastal).

People & animals are literally cooking in the Pacific NW, massive wildfires giving us smokey skies 1000s of miles away, increased tropical threats, etc. 

All this from about a 1.2C increase since start of industrial age. Imagine a 2C-2.5C increase that's very likely by the 2030s.

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6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Considering we're already seeing horrible effects of climate change and there's no major meteor threat for decades I would focus on the former. 

Massive western droughts causing water shortages (Lake Mead), major flooding (land & coastal).

People & animals are literally cooking in the Pacific NW, massive wildfires giving us smokey skies 1000s of miles away, increased tropical threats, etc. 

All this from about a 1.2C increase since start of industrial age. Imagine a 2C-2.5C increase that's very likely by the 2030s.

And too many people living and moving to the southwest

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1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said:

Considering we're already seeing horrible effects of climate change and there's no major meteor threat for decades I would focus on the former. 

Massive western droughts causing water shortages (Lake Mead), major flooding (land & coastal).

People & animals are literally cooking in the Pacific NW, massive wildfires giving us smokey skies 1000s of miles away, increased tropical threats, etc. 

All this from about a 1.2C increase since start of industrial age. Imagine a 2C-2.5C increase that's very likely by the 2030s.

eventually the tilt of the earth will change and earth will enter another ice age it will happen

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6 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

eventually the tilt of the earth will change and earth will enter another ice age it will happen

I remember seeing an interesting program on tv a couple of years back on global warming. As the earth continues to warm there will come a point where too much fresh water from the melting northern polar cap will mix into the Atlantic thus shutting down the currents and triggering an ice age in the northern half of North America that could last for hundreds of years. So you’re half right. Different cause but in the end the same result.

 

 

 

 

 

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37 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

I remember seeing an interesting program on tv a couple of years back on global warming. As the earth continues to warm there will come a point where too much fresh water from the melting northern polar cap will mix into the Atlantic thus shutting down the currents and triggering an ice age in the northern half of North America that could last for hundreds of years. So you’re half right. Different cause but in the end the same result.

 

 

 

 

 

This has already started to happen with the AMOC, but background warming is going to overwhelm any potential cooling effects.

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42 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

I remember seeing an interesting program on tv a couple of years back on global warming. As the earth continues to warm there will come a point where too much fresh water from the melting northern polar cap will mix into the Atlantic thus shutting down the currents and triggering an ice age in the northern half of North America that could last for hundreds of years. So you’re half right. Different cause but in the end the same result.

 

 

 

 

 

i don't worry about the far future since i wont be around to enjoy it..

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1 hour ago, NutleyBlizzard said:

I remember seeing an interesting program on tv a couple of years back on global warming. As the earth continues to warm there will come a point where too much fresh water from the melting northern polar cap will mix into the Atlantic thus shutting down the currents and triggering an ice age in the northern half of North America that could last for hundreds of years. So you’re half right. Different cause but in the end the same result.

 

 

 

 

 

I think when climate becomes real extreme, far more extreme than global warming, the earth has ways to correct it.

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1 hour ago, uncle W said:

two myths killed this Summer so far...11 year hot summer cycle and the 17 year Cicada bug cycle...

Where the @%$$!!! are the Cicadas?   

By the way, looks like some showers working their way down from Summit towards Cranford and maybe Westfield NJ?

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A period of mainly dry conditions and somewhat cooler than normal temperatures will continue into the weekend. Afterward, there are growing model indications that a period of above to much above normal temperatures could develop.

Tomorrow will be partly sunny with temperatures in the lower and middle 80s. However, the heat will be creeping northward and the temperature could reach or exceed 90° in Baltimore and/or Washington, DC.

Out West, the ongoing monsoon event is the big weather story. Through 8 pm, Phoenix had received 0.79" of rain, which exceeded the daily record of 0.41" from 2002. Even more impressive, the high temperature through 8 pm was 83°, which would be the coldest maximum temperature since July 31, 1964. In addition, several July hourly low temperature marks were set.

In the long-range, August could wind up warmer to perhaps much warmer than normal based on the evolution of the MJO. The MJO was in Phase 1 with an amplitude between 1.500 and 2.000 on multiple days during the June 20-30 period. There were 8 prior cases similar to 2021. mean temperature for August was 77.1° following such cases. The 1991-20 mean temperature for was 76.0° for August. 88% of the August cases were warmer than the 1991-20 mean temperatures. Early prospects for a very warm second half of July have diminished on account of the MJO's having moved back into Phase 2 from Phase 3.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August.

The SOI was +17.85 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.743 today.

On July 20 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.738 (RMM). The July 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.805 (RMM).

In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer.

Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 69% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.8° (0.7° below normal).

 

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14 hours ago, bluewave said:

Everything has felt a bit early this year. We got the big snowstorm in February before the -5 AO drop instead of after. The AO reversal in February was faster than we typically see with such a strong -AO winter. June featured record heat which we typically experience in July. Then July had an early tropical storm with record monthly rainfall. In the past, the deluge or a tropical system after 100°heat happened much later.

 

 

 

 

isnt this a 1950s pattern with all the TC and June heat?

We said this last year too

 

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19 hours ago, bluewave said:

The only relationship that I can see between those summers was the timing of the ENSO. The hottest of those Julys were La Niña. Either El Niño winter to La Niña summer or a continuation of La Niña. But the last several winters haven’t matched the expected patterns for the ENSO with coupling issues. It’s interesting that last July was the hottest on record at LGA and a top 10 warmest at Central Park. Also notice that the Julys since the 1990s would be warmer if it wasn’t for the canopy of trees cooling the sensor below.

The summers that you highlighted bolded plus the hot 2020 July

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
ENSO
1 1999 81.4 La Niña to La Niña
2 2010 81.3

El Nino to La Nina

3 1955 80.8 La Niña to La Niña
4 1952 80.3  
5 2011 80.2  
6 1993 80.1  
7 2020 80.0  
- 1908 80.0  
8 2013 79.8  
9 1966 79.7 El Niño to La Niña
10 2019 79.6  
- 1949 79.6  
11 1983 79.5  
12 1994 79.4  
- 1944 79.4  
13 1988 79.3 El Niño  to La Niña
- 1980 79.3 0
14 1876 79.2 0
15 1995 79.1 0
- 1887 79.1 0
16 1977 79.0 Weak El Niño 

 

Going by number of 90 degree highs, the decade of the 1990s dwarfs everything else.  Also 2010 is still the summer of record going by number of 90 degree and 100 degree days.

 

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20 hours ago, bluewave said:

The only relationship that I can see between those summers was the timing of the ENSO. The hottest of those Julys were La Niña. Either El Niño winter to La Niña summer or a continuation of La Niña. But the last several winters haven’t matched the expected patterns for the ENSO with coupling issues. It’s interesting that last July was the hottest on record at LGA and a top 10 warmest at Central Park. Also notice that the Julys since the 1990s would be warmer if it wasn’t for the canopy of trees cooling the sensor below.

The summers that you highlighted bolded plus the hot 2020 July

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
ENSO
1 1999 81.4 La Niña to La Niña
2 2010 81.3

El Nino to La Nina

3 1955 80.8 La Niña to La Niña
4 1952 80.3  
5 2011 80.2  
6 1993 80.1  
7 2020 80.0  
- 1908 80.0  
8 2013 79.8  
9 1966 79.7 El Niño to La Niña
10 2019 79.6  
- 1949 79.6  
11 1983 79.5  
12 1994 79.4  
- 1944 79.4  
13 1988 79.3 El Niño  to La Niña
- 1980 79.3 0
14 1876 79.2 0
15 1995 79.1 0
- 1887 79.1 0
16 1977 79.0 Weak El Niño 

 

Thanks, do you have a number of 90 degree day and number of 100 degree day info for those too?

The top three are part of the 11 yr cycle which is highly impressive.

I'll give you a list of my top summers and can you find out if all of those are la ninas too?  We've been in a la nina pattern haven't we?  So why isn't this summer very hot too?

Here's my list of extremely hot summers I've experienced.

1977, 1980, 1983, 1991, 1993, 1995, 1999, 2002, 2010.  See how many of them are in the 90s :)

 

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20 hours ago, bluewave said:

The only relationship that I can see between those summers was the timing of the ENSO. The hottest of those Julys were La Niña. Either El Niño winter to La Niña summer or a continuation of La Niña. But the last several winters haven’t matched the expected patterns for the ENSO with coupling issues. It’s interesting that last July was the hottest on record at LGA and a top 10 warmest at Central Park. Also notice that the Julys since the 1990s would be warmer if it wasn’t for the canopy of trees cooling the sensor below.

The summers that you highlighted bolded plus the hot 2020 July

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jul
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Year
Mean Avg Temperature 
ENSO
1 1999 81.4 La Niña to La Niña
2 2010 81.3

El Nino to La Nina

3 1955 80.8 La Niña to La Niña
4 1952 80.3  
5 2011 80.2  
6 1993 80.1  
7 2020 80.0  
- 1908 80.0  
8 2013 79.8  
9 1966 79.7 El Niño to La Niña
10 2019 79.6  
- 1949 79.6  
11 1983 79.5  
12 1994 79.4  
- 1944 79.4  
13 1988 79.3 El Niño  to La Niña
- 1980 79.3 0
14 1876 79.2 0
15 1995 79.1 0
- 1887 79.1 0
16 1977 79.0 Weak El Niño 

 

1980 was amazing, it was already very hot in July and August got even hotter and averaged close to 81 wow.....

 

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The last 8 days of July are averaging 79degs.(70/89), or +2.

Month to date is  76.3[-1.2].          July should end near  77.0[-0.5].

70*(70%RH) here at 6am., m. clear.           Reached 79* at 4pm.

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4 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Going by number of 90 degree highs, the decade of the 1990s dwarfs everything else.  Also 2010 is still the summer of record going by number of 90 degree and 100 degree days.

 

2011-2020 had the most 90° days. You can see how the tree growth over the equipment in Central Park has held the 90°days down relative to EWR and LGA. This was the first decade that any of our stations averaged 30° days reaching 90° a year.

#90° days

1951-1960…..EWR…25….NYC…18….LGA….19

1961-1970…..EWR…22….NYC…20…LGA….14

1971-1980….EWR….21…..NYC…18….LGA….12

1981-1990….EWR…26…..NYC…18….LGA….15

1991-2000…EWR…28…..NYC….19….LGA….19

2001-2010…EWR…27……NYC….15….LGA….23

2011-2020….EWR…30…..NYC….18….LGA….24

 

1951-1980….EWR…23……NYC…18...LGA…15

2011-2020...EWR…30…….NYC…18…LGA…24

…………………EWR….+7…….NYC…0….LGA…+9

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No svr thread at this time for Sunday... possible SVR, but marginal instability including late arriving CAPE, and wind fields aloft to 500 MB/TT basically below 30 kt and 49C.  Doesn't mean it won't happen but would rather post if SPC D2 or D1 is Slight Risk (not marginal).  

EC is a little more promising middle of next week with stronger wind fields aloft. 

Nothing very exciting popping out at me through the first week of August up here.  Maybe this will change?

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

2011-2020 had the most 90° days. You can see how the tree growth over the equipment in Central Park has held the 90°days down relative to EWR and LGA. This was the first decade that any of our stations averaged 30° days reaching 90° a year.

#90° days

1951-1960…..EWR…25….NYC…18….LGA….19

1961-1970…..EWR…22….NYC…20…LGA….14

1971-1980….EWR….21…..NYC…18….LGA….12

1981-1990….EWR…26…..NYC…18….LGA….15

1991-2000…EWR…28…..NYC….19….LGA….19

2001-2010…EWR…27……NYC….15….LGA….23

2011-2020….EWR…30…..NYC….18….LGA….24

 

1951-1980….EWR…23……NYC…18...LGA…15

2011-2020...EWR…30…….NYC…18…LGA…24

…………………EWR….+7…….NYC…0….LGA…+9

Good morning BW. Unless I misinterpreted him, the Conservancy director will take action on an NWS recommendation for ASOS flora maintenance.after an ASOS assessment. Do any of our forum regular or red tag members have a contact within the NWS? Has the NWS ever done an ASOS evaluation since it’s activation? Is forkys solution the only viable one, move the ASOS? As always …..

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