Stormlover74 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 11 minutes ago, binbisso said: I'm curious as to why anyone would expect a below normal season with the way our climate is warming. If I was a met or long range forecaster I would always go with above normal temps And I would probably be right 90% of the time. Who's expecting a below normal season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, uncle W said: NYC is on the verge of getting 10" of rain this month...the last time NYC had a month with 10" or more was in 2013... Me too at 9.33" to this point...record is 12.23" in 2004... My station avg for July is 5.36". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 2 hours ago, qg_omega said: Cool summer for the northeast continues June was a top 1-5 warmest for the Northeast. But July only ranks In the top 20s for many spots. This is one of the biggest temperature ranking declines from June to July that we have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: June was a top 1-5 warmest for the Northeast. But July only ranks In the top 20s for many spots. This is one of the biggest temperature ranking declines from June to July that we have ever seen. What’s up with the 49th by Albany in June? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 18 minutes ago, qg_omega said: What’s up with the 49th by Albany in June? Albany was a cool oasis in a sea of warm back in June. ALB….-0.2 POU…+2.8 BTV….+4.3 BGM..+3.4 SYR…+5.5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 25, 2021 Author Share Posted July 25, 2021 Few small cells developing at 250PM but will not thread this afternoon-eve. This coming week: Definitely a Thursday of interest but would like another look (00z/26 cycle) before setting up... and may delay that til I see the D3 from SPC Tuesday morning. Enough wind and modeled instab for a possible slice of svr through the NYC suforum. am offline 330P-10P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 3 hours ago, uncle W said: NYC is on the verge of getting 10" of rain this month...the last time NYC had a month with 10" or more was in 2013... Yeah, looks like this will be the 6th month since 2010 that at least one of our major stations goes 10.00”+. August 2011 was the last time all our stations went 10.00” in the same month. It will be interesting to see if we can eventually get a 10.00” winter month in the coming years. The only one in NYC history was Jan 1979. But out of 10.59, only 6.6 fell as snow. I wonder what the highest precipitation total winter month we can get and still have most of it fall as snow? Philly picked up 5.75 in Feb 2010 and 51.5 of that was snow. NYC got 6.69 in Feb 2010 and 36.9 was snow. Be interesting to see the maximum snowfall we can get from a 10.00 winter month. Jul….2020….EWR…11.20 Aug..2014…..ISP……14.07 Jun..2013……NYC….10.10 Aug..2011……EWR….18.79…..other stations in same range Mar…2010…..NYC…..10.69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, looks like this will be the 6th month since 2010 that at least one of our major stations goes 10.00”+. August 2011 was the last time all our stations went 10.00” in the same month. It will be interesting to see if we can eventually get a 10.00” winter month in the coming years. The only one in NYC history was Jan 1979. But out of 10.59, only 6.6 fell as snow. I wonder what the highest precipitation total winter month we can get and still have most of it fall as snow? Philly picked up 5.75 in Feb 2010 and 51.5 of that was snow. NYC got 6.69 in Feb 2010 and 36.9 was snow. Be interesting to see the maximum snowfall we can get from a 10.00 winter month. Jul….2020….EWR…11.20 Aug..2014…..ISP……14.07 Jun..2013……NYC….10.10 Aug..2011……EWR….18.79…..other stations in same range Mar…2010…..NYC…..10.69 January 1978 set the record that was broken the next year...January 1978 had 8.27" of precip and 20.3" of snow and sleet...February 1978 had only 1.59" of precip but 23.0" of snow...Feb 78 did not have a drop of rain...it all fell as snow...January 1981 is the only other month I know of with no rain at all...Just snow... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 3 hours ago, qg_omega said: What’s up with the 49th by Albany in June? It wasn't that warm up here honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 There is a baseline normal. We are using the baseline. We didnt reference 1970-2000 baseline normals last year, no need to reference old baselines this year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 5 hours ago, qg_omega said: Was at a friends house in Long Island yday and consensus was this is a cool summer so far, lack of 90 degree days This summer has been pretty meh overall, but I can’t say it’s been “cool”, 2009 and 2014 were abysmal. Coming off of the previous 3 summers anything not top 10 worthy feels cooler than normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 1.27” from those cells that just went through, 1.30” on the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 Uncomfortable to grill outdoors this evening, currently 80, RH 71%, DP 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 33 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: Uncomfortable to grill outdoors this evening, currently 80, RH 71%, DP 70. I’m currently grilling and it’s actually not that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 25, 2021 Share Posted July 25, 2021 6 hours ago, doncat said: My stations norms are based on my full 43 years of record and july is exactly normal to this point. Impressive, 43 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 A period of above to much above normal temperatures will develop starting tomorrow. Several days of above to much above normal readings are likely through mid-week. Some smoke from the western wildfires could again move through the region. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.1°C for the week centered around July 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged 0.23°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.12°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail through August. The SOI was +15.94 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.422 today. On July 21 the MJO was in Phase 6 at an amplitude of 1.403 (RMM). The July 20-adjusted amplitude was 1.573 (RMM). In late April, the MJO moved through Phase 8 at an extreme amplitude (+3.000 or above). Only February 25, 1988 and March 18-19, 2015 had a higher amplitude at Phase 8. Both 1988 and 2015 went on to have an exceptionally warm July-August period. July-August 1988 had a mean temperature of 79.1°, which ranked 4th highest for that two-month period. July-August 2015 had a mean temperature of 78.9°, which ranked 5th highest for that two-month period. September 2015 was also the warmest September on record. The MJO's extreme passage through Phase 8 could provide the first hint of a hot summer. Since 1896, 76% of years that saw Phoenix reach 115° or above in June, as occurred this year, had a warmer than July-August in the Middle Atlantic region. The ratio of top 30 July-August temperatures relative to bottom 30 temperatures was 6:1 in favor of the warmth. Overall, the ingredients continue to fall into place for a warmer than normal to potentially hot summer. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 76.5° (1.0° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 7/25 PHL: 88 BLM: 86 EWR: 87 ACY: 86 New Brnswck: 86 TTN: 85 TEB: 84 LGA: 84 NYC: 83 ISP: 80 JFK:80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 7 hours ago, qg_omega said: Was at a friends house in Long Island yday and consensus was this is a cool summer so far, lack of 90 degree days I live on Long Island. We’ve had like 15 90 degree days. Maybe on the south shore it’s been cool with the more southerly flow. But up on the north shore it has definitely not been “cool”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 2 hours ago, jfklganyc said: There is a baseline normal. We are using the baseline. We didnt reference 1970-2000 baseline normals last year, no need to reference old baselines this year Sure, but at the end of the period (2020) you would expect to see more AN months than in the beginning (2011). Statistics play out that way. 2021 *should* be the coolest year relative to the 1990-2020 mean in the decade. By 2030, we will see more AN because it’s the end of the 10 year in a warning client. it’s really easy math… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 7 hours ago, qg_omega said: Was at a friends house in Long Island yday and consensus was this is a cool summer so far, lack of 90 degree days I’ve had 17 90 degree days in NW Suffolk. High for the year was 98. very cool I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 9 minutes ago, psv88 said: I live on Long Island. We’ve had like 15 90 degree days. Maybe on the south shore it’s been cool with the more southerly flow. But up on the north shore it has definitely not been “cool”. Most of them in June and south shore of course much much less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 6 minutes ago, psv88 said: I’ve had 17 90 degree days in NW Suffolk. High for the year was 98. very cool I guess? Some of the urban/metro and CNJ areas should add 3 or more 90 degree days by Aug 1, but it is a fine line with the strongest heat just south and between the hotter days N'rly flow will cool/dry the area. ECM the opposite next week Aug 1 - 5 with one warm-hot day then some below normal days. Its 7-10 days away so we will see how it trends and if the stronger heat can bring more mid 90s to the hotter spots Tue (7/27). It seems when the heat comes by way of the Western Atlantic Ridge building west, there is a period of normal to below when the ridge retreats east, thats what we are in now between the Rockies ridge and the W. aTl Ridge. We'll see if EC ridging can make a come back and push the summer to the hotter side overall. 90 degree days are still on par with 2016/2012 tallies to this points so Junes big numbers helping in that department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 17 here Cells keep refiring to nnw. Hoping to add to this morning's 0.17". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Most of them in June and south shore of course much much less June is part of the summer no? look at the difference between ISP and FRG for 90s and temp overall. There has been a huge difference on the island this summer. Many days ISP in the mid 80s areas NW on the isle in the 90s. I guess maybe southern state south has been cool? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 I guess the upper middleAtlantic Is one of the top severe thunderstorm watches In the nation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 1 minute ago, STORMANLI said: 17 here Cells keep refiring to nnw. Hoping to add to this morning's 0.17". Our numbers always exactly the same. Hard to believe ISP only has 3 and we have 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 5 minutes ago, psv88 said: I’ve had 17 90 degree days in NW Suffolk. High for the year was 98. very cool I guess? Islip has one 90 this month, one last month…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 54 minutes ago, psv88 said: I live on Long Island. We’ve had like 15 90 degree days. Maybe on the south shore it’s been cool with the more southerly flow. But up on the north shore it has definitely not been “cool”. Big difference as usual between our area and the south shore. Many days so far where we’re roasting near or over 90 but Captree’s in the mid 70s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 I have had 10 days of 90 or higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 26, 2021 Share Posted July 26, 2021 Quite a lightning show with those storms to the north. Kind of surprised to see it from JC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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