uncle W Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 this will be the coolest July for the 11 year hot Summer cycle since 1933... Year July... 1933...75.8 1944...79.4 1955...80.9 1966...79.7 1977...79.0 1988...79.3 1999...81.4 2010...81.3... 2021...76.8?.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted July 23, 2021 Author Share Posted July 23, 2021 SPC with a marginal risk for SVR Sunday mainly northern part of the subforum. I like it. Would have started a thread today but for the errant thread on the missed SVR of earlier this week (20th-21st for our subforum. Gives more time to look but suspect will need a thread Saturday morning for Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 80degs.(70/90), or +2. Month to date is 76.4[-1.1]. Should be 77.3[-0.2] by the 31st. 68*(63%RH) here at 6am., m. clear, some scattered clouds. 77* by Noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 9 hours ago, uncle W said: this will be the coolest July for the 11 year hot Summer cycle since 1933... Year July... 1933...75.8 1944...79.4 1955...80.9 1966...79.7 1977...79.0 1988...79.3 1999...81.4 2010...81.3... 2021...76.8?.. The only relationship that I can see between those summers was the timing of the ENSO. The hottest of those Julys were La Niña. Either El Niño winter to La Niña summer or a continuation of La Niña. But the last several winters haven’t matched the expected patterns for the ENSO with coupling issues. It’s interesting that last July was the hottest on record at LGA and a top 10 warmest at Central Park. Also notice that the Julys since the 1990s would be warmer if it wasn’t for the canopy of trees cooling the sensor below. The summers that you highlighted bolded plus the hot 2020 July Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of JulClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature ENSO 1 1999 81.4 La Niña to La Niña 2 2010 81.3 El Nino to La Nina 3 1955 80.8 La Niña to La Niña 4 1952 80.3 5 2011 80.2 6 1993 80.1 7 2020 80.0 - 1908 80.0 8 2013 79.8 9 1966 79.7 El Niño to La Niña 10 2019 79.6 - 1949 79.6 11 1983 79.5 12 1994 79.4 - 1944 79.4 13 1988 79.3 El Niño to La Niña - 1980 79.3 0 14 1876 79.2 0 15 1995 79.1 0 - 1887 79.1 0 16 1977 79.0 Weak El Niño 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny and comfortable. Humidity will be low and temperatures will rise to the lower and perhaps middle 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 82° Newark: 85° Philadelphia: 84° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 85.2°; 15-Year: 86.3° Newark: 30-Year: 87.0°; 15-Year: 88.4° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 87.9°; 15-Year: 89.0° Tomorrow will be partly sunny and continued pleasant. In the Southwest, a retrograding system will produce significant monsoon rainfall, with the heaviest amounts falling through tomorrow morning. Both Phoenix and Tucson could pick up 0.50”-1.00” rain during this by the end of tomorrow. Already, Phoenix has received 0.21” of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 Currently 72 here, DP 55/RH 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 Macys was playing christmas music earlier yesterday. Too damn early. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 16 minutes ago, TriPol said: Macys was playing christmas music earlier yesterday. Too damn early. might be a "Christmas in July" promotion? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 there's no 11 year cycle lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 venus use to be just like earth a billion years ago before climate change i.e the sun getting hotter as it gets older ruined that paradise.. the same thing will happen to earth. at that time mars will move into the habitable zone..temp wise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Unless we generate a Martian greenhouse effect I don't see how it would become more habitable. If you mean a billion+ years from now when the sun's luminosity increases then maybe. And that's only the temperature we still have the lack of oxygen problem, radiation and other poisonous gases to deal with. a billion years ago venus was in the habitable zone earth was not then earth moved in the habitable zone venus started burning a billion years from now earth will start burning and mars will move into the habitable zone temp wise now mars needs t be terraformed for a atmosphere if it is even possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Unless we generate a Martian greenhouse effect I don't see how it would become more habitable. If you mean a billion+ years from now when the sun's luminosity increases then maybe. And that's only the temperature we still have the lack of oxygen problem, radiation and other poisonous gases to deal with. exactly the suns gets hotter in time but venus and mars were totally different venus had oceans of water just like earth.. mars does not.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poker2015 Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 Beautiful weekend for the NJ Festival of Ballooning!! Just need the storms to stay away on Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 2 hours ago, TriPol said: Macys was playing christmas music earlier yesterday. Too damn early. Everything has felt a bit early this year. We got the big snowstorm in February before the -5 AO drop instead of after. The AO reversal in February was faster than we typically see with such a strong -AO winter. June featured record heat which we typically experience in July. Then July had an early tropical storm with record monthly rainfall. In the past, the deluge or a tropical system after 100°heat happened much later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 Great summer weather Fri / Sat before we warm back up Sun (7/25) - Thu (7/29) Strongest heat nearby (plenty of it feeding in from the Rockies ridge) but still plenty of >15C temps and W/NW flow should yield more 90s and perhaps one stronger heat day where the hot spots could touch mid / upper 90s. Beyond there cooler end to the month and we'll see if the W. Atlantic Ridge builds back west into the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 81/ 52 just tremendous weather right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 1 hour ago, nycwinter said: a billion years ago venus was in the habitable zone earth was not then earth moved in the habitable zone venus started burning a billion years from now earth will start burning and mars will move into the habitable zone temp wise now mars needs t be terraformed for a atmosphere if it is even possible Personally I don't think humans have to fear climate change. Don't get me wrong we should do what we can to prevent it, but it is gradual and we can change with it. I think what we should be most looking out for is a meteor. Like the dinosaurs it can end us almost immediately. By the way, I think if the earth could talk, when people say we have to safe the earth, the earth would laugh and say no way you can destroy me. We can destroy ourselves but not the earth. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maureen Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: might be a "Christmas in July" promotion? Yes, certain retailers have been doing “Christmas in July” the last few years. And it drives many of the employees crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 32 minutes ago, lee59 said: Personally I don't think humans have to fear climate change. Don't get me wrong we should do what we can to prevent it, but it is gradual and we can change with it. I think what we should be most looking out for is a meteor. Like the dinosaurs it can end us almost immediately. By the way, I think if the earth could talk, when people say we have to safe the earth, the earth would laugh and say no way you can destroy me. We can destroy ourselves but not the earth. Considering we're already seeing horrible effects of climate change and there's no major meteor threat for decades I would focus on the former. Massive western droughts causing water shortages (Lake Mead), major flooding (land & coastal). People & animals are literally cooking in the Pacific NW, massive wildfires giving us smokey skies 1000s of miles away, increased tropical threats, etc. All this from about a 1.2C increase since start of industrial age. Imagine a 2C-2.5C increase that's very likely by the 2030s. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Considering we're already seeing horrible effects of climate change and there's no major meteor threat for decades I would focus on the former. Massive western droughts causing water shortages (Lake Mead), major flooding (land & coastal). People & animals are literally cooking in the Pacific NW, massive wildfires giving us smokey skies 1000s of miles away, increased tropical threats, etc. All this from about a 1.2C increase since start of industrial age. Imagine a 2C-2.5C increase that's very likely by the 2030s. And too many people living and moving to the southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 1 hour ago, SnoSki14 said: Considering we're already seeing horrible effects of climate change and there's no major meteor threat for decades I would focus on the former. Massive western droughts causing water shortages (Lake Mead), major flooding (land & coastal). People & animals are literally cooking in the Pacific NW, massive wildfires giving us smokey skies 1000s of miles away, increased tropical threats, etc. All this from about a 1.2C increase since start of industrial age. Imagine a 2C-2.5C increase that's very likely by the 2030s. eventually the tilt of the earth will change and earth will enter another ice age it will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 21 minutes ago, nycwinter said: eventually the tilt of the earth will change and earth will enter another ice age it will happen What? Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, nycwinter said: eventually the tilt of the earth will change and earth will enter another ice age it will happen I remember seeing an interesting program on tv a couple of years back on global warming. As the earth continues to warm there will come a point where too much fresh water from the melting northern polar cap will mix into the Atlantic thus shutting down the currents and triggering an ice age in the northern half of North America that could last for hundreds of years. So you’re half right. Different cause but in the end the same result. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 two myths killed this Summer so far...11 year hot summer cycle and the 17 year Cicada bug cycle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A Moonlit Sky Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 37 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: I remember seeing an interesting program on tv a couple of years back on global warming. As the earth continues to warm there will come a point where too much fresh water from the melting northern polar cap will mix into the Atlantic thus shutting down the currents and triggering an ice age in the northern half of North America that could last for hundreds of years. So you’re half right. Different cause but in the end the same result. This has already started to happen with the AMOC, but background warming is going to overwhelm any potential cooling effects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 42 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: I remember seeing an interesting program on tv a couple of years back on global warming. As the earth continues to warm there will come a point where too much fresh water from the melting northern polar cap will mix into the Atlantic thus shutting down the currents and triggering an ice age in the northern half of North America that could last for hundreds of years. So you’re half right. Different cause but in the end the same result. i don't worry about the far future since i wont be around to enjoy it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 if you want to speculate about global warming buy land in the wilderness up in Canada and Alaska...I'm to old and wont be around when palm trees will grow in Manhattan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 43 minutes ago, uncle W said: if you want to speculate about global warming buy land in the wilderness up in Canada and Alaska...I'm to old and wont be around when palm trees will grow in Manhattan... Then the folks in our area won't have to retire in Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 1 hour ago, NutleyBlizzard said: I remember seeing an interesting program on tv a couple of years back on global warming. As the earth continues to warm there will come a point where too much fresh water from the melting northern polar cap will mix into the Atlantic thus shutting down the currents and triggering an ice age in the northern half of North America that could last for hundreds of years. So you’re half right. Different cause but in the end the same result. I think when climate becomes real extreme, far more extreme than global warming, the earth has ways to correct it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted July 23, 2021 Share Posted July 23, 2021 Suprised by a little downpour in lower Manhattan, really cooled off from an already moderate day. Dare I say, in late July, its actually chilly outside now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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