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February 10-12, 2021 Winter Event

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Yes. I learned this ironically at the ESRI conference in San Diego where a rep. from the ECMWF showed a data density map of observations and how there really isn't any ship or buoy data in the Atlantic. They were able to pull a lot of commercial aircraft data down because that's the only heads up they get about the mid latitude cyclones pushing into Europe.

Interesting, thanks. But given that’s downwind of us, would need to see if that impacts these short range forecasts over North America.

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10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro has definitely NOT been a locked in rock inside 72hrs like it used to be. I’ve seen people on Twitter speculate it’s due to the reduction of aircraft data feeding into it due to covid. But i figure that would impact all the models, so I’m not sure. 

It would but it’s hypothetically possible for a reduction in data to effect one more then other depending on how much they rely on initialization. 

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It’s surprising this trended to another white rain/mix event with temps 33-36 in DC.  I guess that’s been the seasonal trend though, there is never any deep cold preceding a storm.  We haven’t had a storm with temps in the 20s the night before in quite some time.  

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10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I mean, I’ll take a euro/NAM blend right now quite happily for MBY. Is the WRF the one you said you liked on Sunday?

 

14 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

what does it show for HoCo?

         I do like this model, but I suspect it's a bit wet for tonight.   I sure do love where it puts the heavier stripe:

sn10_acc.us_ma.thumb.png.8fa2c8629395afd050ca178ebff4971a.png

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2 hours ago, Ji said:

they should use the HRDPS and call it a winter

hrdps_asnow_neus_48.png

HRDPS, euro and a few other models show that secondary QPF jack from Baltimore metro on east with QPF. Interesting. 

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3 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

It’s surprising this trended to another white rain/mix event with temps 33-36 in DC.  I guess that’s been the seasonal trend though, there is never any deep cold preceding a storm.  We haven’t had a storm with temps in the 20s the night before in quite some time.  

Something that I've learned/but don't practice enough is that the NAM/3k are very good are finding warm noses throughout the column.  The almost always end up slightly further north than even what they show.  RGEM now shows the warm nose at 12z for us in DC area.

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4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

It’s surprising this trended to another white rain/mix event with temps 33-36 in DC.  I guess that’s been the seasonal trend though, there is never any deep cold preceding a storm.  We haven’t had a storm with temps in the 20s the night before in quite some time.  

It’s frustrating... but hopefully we can catch a break this time... it’s very close and I’ll pretty much take sleet or snow at this point.

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41 minutes ago, wtkidz said:

Okay I don’t post much . 

is it correct I don’t know or care.  I am just tracking the storm. 

 

 

DA8F505A-E98D-4443-9776-F2BFE4B8DE1E.png

DC folks when the storm misses south: It will trend north

Also DC folks: This solution will 100% trend north

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RGEM looks like the NAM with (presumably) a 800mb warm layer poking up to around a Laurel-Rockville line early tomorrow morning. 
 

Kind of amazing how crappy our air masses have been this winter.

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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

HRDPS, euro and a few other models show that secondary QPF jack from Baltimore metro on east with QPF. Interesting. 

I think because there’s a weak precipitation shadow just east of the mountains.

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2 minutes ago, chris21 said:

It’s frustrating... but hopefully we can catch a break this time... it’s very close and I’ll pretty much take sleet or snow at this point.

Yeah I’ll take whatever, I think we’ll just have to get used to this unfortunately on the coastal plain as our climate rapidly warms.

Was supposed to have a high of 39 today, just went for a run in rock creek and it’s beautiful out lol.  Nice and warm in the sun temp up to 38 already, running in a t-shirt. 

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1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah I’ll take whatever, I think we’ll just have to get used to this unfortunately on the coastal plain as our climate rapidly warms.

Was supposed to have a high of 39 today, just went for a run in rock creek and it’s beautiful out lol.  Nice and warm in the sun temp up to 38 already, running in a t-shirt. 

Lack of cold at any point is ridiculous. Last year, fine everyone east of the Mississippi was warm. This really is just us. We are busting high on forecasted highs and lows daily. At least maybe the rain/white rain tonight and tomorrow will get all the accumulated salt of the streets just in case we get a bit of a surprise for wave 2. That’s the glass half full thought for the day. 

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1 minute ago, ovechkin said:

Lack of cold at any point is ridiculous. Last year, fine everyone east of the Mississippi was warm. This really is just us. We are busting high on forecasted highs and lows daily. At least maybe the rain/white rain tonight and tomorrow will get all the accumulated salt of the streets just in case we get a bit of a surprise for wave 2. That’s the glass half full thought for the day. 

Even the 12k NAM is already busting low with temps.  NAM says I should be at 35 and DCA should be at 37.  I'm at 38/39 and it's already around or above 40 at DCA.

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Just now, clskinsfan said:

GFS caved to the NAM. 850's blast north. Congrats PSU.  This hobby sucks. 

Sorry I was trying to will this one south. Maybe if I set up my high velocity fan from my classroom and face it south...

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Even the mix is right to baltimore on GFS...verbatim still good enough but no wiggle if it decides to verify 15-20 miles N

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1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

GFS caved to the NAM. 850's blast north. Congrats PSU.  This hobby sucks. 

It’s not even just 850s the surface is torched too for a lot of our subforum.  Looking like plain rain to me around DC.  And this is from another model that is already busting 2-3 degrees low on current temps. 

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Just now, Baltimorewx said:

Talk in NWS discussion of upping totals for the northern teir though...no shocker based on 12z data so far

lol who could have guessed the M/D line would get the most snow!?! 

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0.25 total precip in DC through 12z Friday. and even worse the further south you go.  GFS has been steadfast on central VA precip hole.

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Wow. And to top it off—this confidence building boiler plate quote from LWX next week. 

A slight winter threat exists for Saturday and Tuesday. If these
threats materialize, it may cause travel disruptions.
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Anyone think that the trailing wave for saturday is maybe preventing wave 2 from being able to really develop? I mean its just a weak precip shield now..spacing maybe an issue I guess

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38 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

It’s surprising this trended to another white rain/mix event with temps 33-36 in DC.  I guess that’s been the seasonal trend though, there is never any deep cold preceding a storm.  We haven’t had a storm with temps in the 20s the night before in quite some time.  

Over the last several years DC has a hard time just getting to 32 in general Not many hours below if you add up all the hours below 32 in a given winter season 

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Just now, Warm Nose said:

Cue the inevitable bashing of the models since they weren't verbatim and trends went the wrong way for this sub ...

"Verbatim" is doing a lot of work in that sentence.  They might as well have been sampling a different country.

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