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Bob Chill

Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979

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All I know Is I love Leesburg and as I'm looking for a new place to live later this year or next it's going to be in Western Loudoun somewhere but for this storm, at least so far with these models....I'm glad I'm in Sykesville. Who knows how it ultimately works out but right now I'm a big fan of the lighter shade of pink. 

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22 minutes ago, Amped said:

Improved for the NW crew. About the same everywhere else.

At this point the NW crew really has nothing to fret over. Short of waa being drier and the coastal shitting the bed at last minute, we will do well up here. :snowing:

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1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

Man, Baltimore sure does look like a decent spot for this one.  Euro steadfast with that area of heavier QPF from DC northeast.  

Hi

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FWIW, DT has a long Facebook post talking about the storm and hyped up the accuracy of the RGEM and said he is worried he could be well underdone in his forecasted totals for Central Maryland and would not take much of an adjustment to see 18-24 inch totals there.

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ALEEEET ALEEEEET ALEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEETTT

 

JK

 

Good luck my northern friends! We got our 3" here in SE VA this week and are good to go for the winter! 

 

 

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Just now, WxUSAF said:

Hi

Reminder: I expect pictures 

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Just one slight shift south. Please. Want people to say that things look great from H2Os house north

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Just now, mappy said:

At this point the NW crew really has nothing to fret over. Short of waa being drier and the coastal shitting the bed at last minute, we will do well up here. :snowing:

You ,  losetoa6  and PSU seem to be in a great spot .

Im the same Latitude as you all but a bit further west.  I might miss the best stuff just to my east.

Time will tell.

Just looking forward to sledding with my kidos  tomorrow.

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1 minute ago, H2O said:

Just one slight shift south. Please. Want people to say that things look great from H2Os house north

Yes plz. We can have our little kumbaya circle together for the 00Z suite 

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Just now, H2O said:

Just one slight shift south. Please. Want people to say that things look great from H2Os house north

I’m hoping for a shift north...the melt downs will be epic... even better than getting actual snow.  

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2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

FWIW, DT has a long Facebook post talking about the storm and hyped up the accuracy of the RGEM and said he is worried he could be well underdone in his forecasted totals for Central Maryland and would not take much of an adjustment to see 18-24 inch totals there.

The long duration is very interesting as well. 

Here is a small section about what DT was talking about from his update 1 hour ago.

 <

I continue to be very concerned about heavy snow greater than a foot in the Washington DC and Baltimore Metro areas. The high resolution n short-range and very good Canadian model known as the RGEM as well as other models continue to show 12 to to as much as 30 inches of snow in South Central AND Southeastern Pennsylvania as well as much of New Jersey AND into North Central Maryland very close to Washington and Baltimore. It is quite possible that Hagerstown and Frederick as well as Columbia Sykesville and housing could end up with 8 inches or more of snow when compared to Baltimore or Washington DC.

With that much snow … being that close to these important Metro areas I am very nervous about any forecasts which has snow amounts under 10 in. It would not take much of an adjustment to drop 18 or 24 inches of snow area into these Metro regions as well as Martinsburg Leesburg and Winchester.

More later

>

    

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

God I hate bringing up this storm but there was a time not long ago where the euro amd everything else lined up a great hit but in real time the upper low wobbled SE and slp ended up tucked and more than a little south of prog'd. This storm's result was a heartbreaker but we're talking a real time shift at hour 0 that the euro missed. It's a perpetual cycle of worry parsing it. A trend of getting the waa totals slashed AND losing the ccb piece to the north is worth worrying about tho. I'm not seeing it yet anywhere

12/5-6/03 is an example discussed in these threads the past couple of days of a good WAA surge, then drizzle/mix all day while waiting and waiting for the CCB. The radar progression actually strikingly matches what a couple of models have been showing:

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2004/05-Dec-03-RegionalRadarImagery.html

I was driving home from DC to Potomac after a night out clubbing and ran into snow covered roads near home around 2 am. That band through predawn dropped another 3.5” after the 4” from the WAA. It wasn’t as much as forecast but still ended up being a decent storm around here. At least DC proper will be colder than that event for the WAA phase.

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Just now, Chris78 said:

You ,  losetoa6  and PSU seem to be in a great spot .

Im the same Latitude as you all but a bit further west.  I might miss the best stuff just to my east.

Time will tell.

Just looking forward to sledding with my kidos  tomorrow.

Highstakes too. Enjoy what you get! :sled:

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Just now, BristowWx said:

I’m hoping for a shift north...the melt downs will be epic... even better than getting actual snow.  

image.thumb.jpeg.a1278ce3ca7664f05010469c73dcdd47.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, H2O said:

Just one slight shift south. Please. Want people to say that things look great from H2Os house north

I’ll will it south for you, friend! 

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Just now, mappy said:

I’ll will it south for you, friend! 

You da best!!!

 

26/16

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Has this been mentioned? ... the 1922 Knickerbocker storm looks very similar on historical weather maps at closest approach to DC, although it was entirely coastal in origin ... upper panels on wetterzentrale are obviously back-cast but look rather similar also. Timing (Jan 28-29) and the sort of otherwise bland winter season are also similar. Just a factoid among many. 

One other detail that caught my eye in assessing model scenarios is that offshore the warmer Gulf stream water has pooled out around 70W with a fairly cool coastal layer, there's no instant torching of lower levels available from contact with these relatively cold seas. This is why I tend towards accepting the RGEM solution, if I saw a sharper gradient out around the Texas Tower then perhaps more of a Long Ilsland bomb outcome. 

The 24 hours of east winds will probably advect some warmer surface layers briefly but that may just assist in the loop process and strand a cutoff secondary near the coast. 

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5 minutes ago, H2O said:

Just one slight shift south. Please. Want people to say that things look great from H2Os house north

we have gotten south shifts all month

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The winds inland will be strong,  added to the heavier snow periods and it will look awesome outside !  

 

Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm- 336 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021

STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM SUNDAY TO 10 PM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Northeast winds 30 to 40 kt with gusts up to 50 kt and seas 13 to 18 ft expected. * WHERE...Coastal waters from Sandy Hook to Manasquan Inlet NJ out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Manasquan Inlet to Little Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm, Coastal waters from Little Egg Inlet to Great Egg Inlet NJ out 20 nm and Coastal waters from Great Egg Inlet to Cape May NJ out 20 nm. * WHEN...From 3 PM Sunday to 10 PM EST Monday. * IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous seas which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

 

ecmwfued---usne_ll-60-C-850hgtwind_2021013012_whitecounty.png

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3 minutes ago, frd said:

The long duration is very interesting as well. 

Here is a small section about what DT was talking about from his update 1 hour ago.

 <

I continue to be very concerned about heavy snow greater than a foot in the Washington DC and Baltimore Metro areas. The high resolution n short-range and very good Canadian model known as the RGEM as well as other models continue to show 12 to to as much as 30 inches of snow in South Central AND Southeastern Pennsylvania as well as much of New Jersey AND into North Central Maryland very close to Washington and Baltimore. It is quite possible that Hagerstown and Frederick as well as Columbia Sykesville and housing could end up with 8 inches or more of snow when compared to Baltimore or Washington DC.

With that much snow … being that close to these important Metro areas I am very nervous about any forecasts which has snow amounts under 10 in. It would not take much of an adjustment to drop 18 or 24 inches of snow area into these Metro regions as well as Martinsburg Leesburg and Winchester.

More later

>

    

1996?

 

J/K...27 degrees.here.  

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