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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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1 minute ago, Mshaffer526 said:

I would never ask for local amounts ;)

Just curious to hear a Met's perspective on the 48 hour HRRR.  Sometimes hard to tell which ones are *really* useless at long range and which judgments are weenie-induced.

It's a very short term model and honestly struggles beyond 6 hours and only a few run to 48 hrs. Might be right but one of the last models I would use beyond 18 hours. 

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1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said:

NAM is always fine under 48 hours  after 48 is when it should be taken lightly 

Well if thats the case we are in trouble. At 39 The dryslot is in Philly and the 850 line is on the Mason Dixon line. 

42 the 850's crash to a line from DC to Woodstock. But there is very little precip. 

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6 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

Definitely not going to argue with that! Not sure why the reading I got was 2 degrees cooler. Cool to have another Parkville person in here! 

I’m below the beltway by about a mile on the city line, so sometimes it’s a bit warmer here than surrounding Parkville. My station link is in my profile.

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Right or wrong (probably wrong) the NAM is chasing the convection and taking the secondary way too far OTS. It’s improving slightly each run with that but not enough. You can see the slp ride up the line of convection that fires out over the gulf steam vs tucking in along the coastal front baroclinic zone. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Right or wrong (probably wrong) the NAM is chasing the convection and taking the secondary way too far OTS. It’s improving slightly each run with that but not enough. You can see the slp ride up the line of convection that fires out over the gulf steam vs tucking in along the coastal front baroclinic zone. 

Is this what the HRRR did as well?  And to a lesser degree the GFS?

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