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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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3 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

High end advisory to warning level snows on the front end of the NAM, but that’s all she wrote with the coastal heading north. CCB deform band will be in southern New England on this run. Lucky we get some light wrap around snow and that will be all. No tuck. 

How likely do you think the snows back in Ohio would be at 84hr on the NAM? I know the NAM is crazy, but that seems pretty loco.

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Right or wrong (probably wrong) the NAM is chasing the convection and taking the secondary way too far OTS. It’s improving slightly each run with that but not enough. You can see the slp ride up the line of convection that fires out over the gulf steam vs tucking in along the coastal front baroclinic zone. 

Not sure what you mean by improving slightly with each run?  I thought the 12Z is when it first went crazy driving the dry slot much farther north than any other guidance, and seems even more so at 18Z.  Not trying to be argumentative at all, but just curious what you meant.  I'm interested too in the whole tracking the low along the convection rather than the coastal baroclinic zone.

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Nothing else has more than flurries or scattered snow showers as far as I can tell.

Exactly

Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

It’ll snow up there until that primary fully dissipates. 

Thanks. That absolutely makes sense, but I suppose what I’m getting at is that if the NAM has that much snow in the Ohio Valley at 84, then I’m having a hard time believing the rest of it at the same time.

I mean...it’s no RGEM, so it has to be junk.

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1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Not sure what you mean by improving slightly with each run?  I thought the 12Z is when it first went crazy driving the dry slot much farther north than any other guidance, and seems even more so at 18Z.  Not trying to be argumentative at all, but just curious what you meant.  I'm interested too in the whole tracking the low along the convection rather than the coastal baroclinic zone.

I was strictly talking about the slp track 

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Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
923 PM EST Sat Jan 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will approach the Tennessee and Ohio Valley into
Sunday morning. This low will track into the Mid Atlantic region
on Sunday, transferring its energy off the coast of the
Carolinas and Virginia Tidewater region Sunday night into
Monday. The low will strengthen off the Delmarva Peninsula
Monday afternoon and Monday night, tracking northeastward on
Tuesday. High pressure will then return for the middle portion
of next week before low pressure and its associated cold front
may impact the area late in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM SUNDAY/...

Fcst through 00Z Mon remains on track and with high confidence
that all areas except Calvert and St. Mary`s will get a good
plowable snow of around 6 inches or more. Fcst confidence after
that time decreases due to mid-level dry slot moving in,
uncertainty in sfc temperatures, and amount of QPF. Model
guidance do show ENE convergent flow into strengthening low
pressure off the coast with potentially as much as 0.15 inches
liquid equivalent which would likely be all wintry. I think we
could see some good ice accretion more than what models are
suggesting especially for areas west of I-95 where temperatures
will likely stay in the upper 20s. Areas south of the Capital
Beltway will likely rise above freezing to keep precip as liquid
Sun night into Mon morning.
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5 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

850 mb winds on the NAM are ripping southeast at over 40 knots 0z Monday which torches the mid-levels I-95 south and east. This is significantly higher than any other guidance has and the SLP track is also farther west. 

Also, checking out the obs: this is anecdotal, but could support a deeper ULL:
 

 

What implication would this have?

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