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Jan 31st - 33rd Storm Obs and Disco like it's 1979


Bob Chill
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2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This tweet from @griteater shows what I was saying in the other thread well. We get  perfect fetch off the ocean around 18-23z Monday, but then it moves north and our snow gets lighter 

 

Great share. 
 

The deform is just a big wildcard overall that we’re going to need to hone in on. But I did like the post someone made related to 2/10/10. Primary coming in south of where that trekked through the OV and transferred. If we see the low sit and spin off the Delmarva like many are showing (euro now included), people are going to put up numbers. 

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Just now, DDweatherman said:

Great share. 
 

The deform is just a big wildcard overall that we’re going to need to hone in on. But I did like the post someone made related to 2/10/10. Primary coming in south of where that trekked through the OV and transferred. If we see the low sit and spin off the Delmarva like many are showing (euro now included), people are going to put up numbers. 

I've been avoiding posting this but if my yard is going to get plastered it needs to be a carbon copy of 2010. I do see some similarities, and just like that storm, the deform ended up surprising a lot of people. There's no reason (yet) to discount that outcome. That said, the differences between this storm and that one argue for areas N-NE of our sub to get plastered and not us. All I ask is to be within the CCB guidance envelope sunday night. 

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@Bob Chill it will sting some of the capture is late and the ccb misses. But note as this amps up so has the WAA the last few runs. So even without getting crushed by the CCB the DC area is still looking at a 6-10” snowstorm and that’s if they mostly get screwed which is probably about what it would have been if we got a more suppressed weaker solution.  So imo 6-10” with the potential to get 20” if we get lucky with the ccb is better then a suppressed weaker wave where we get maybe 6-12 but there is no hecs upside. But I think some let their perception be effected by the “who gets the most” game. They feel better about 8” if they are the Jack v a 10” storm where somewhere else got 30”.  I get it. Envy is a real thing lol.  But I always will take my chances on a more amped up storm with bigger upside. These kinds of setups don’t come along that often why be conservative. Our snow climo sucks and it mostly boom or bust so let’s go for boom every chance we get imo. 

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