EastCoast NPZ Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 2 hours ago, clskinsfan said: This thing already broke the site! Crazy run for us westerners. And in all honesty the Euro depiction leaves room for an even bigger hit than shown. Nuts. Watch how the precip shield is tugged west at 132 and 138. It is just a sit and spin megastorm. Thats a dream scenario as depicted. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 At 00z tonight, are we only 72 hours out from the first flakes? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, LeesburgWx said: At 00z tonight, are we only 72 hours out from the first flakes? That’s the word on the street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, LeesburgWx said: At 00z tonight, are we only 72 hours out from the first flakes? That's tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Just now, chris21 said: That’s the word on the street. Just now, SnowDreamer said: That's tomorrow. Umm, so which is it? 72-80 hours out seems right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Storm enters on the Pacific side as a powerhouse and will exit on the Atlantic side as a powerhouse, near same latitude 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Umm, so which is it? 72-80 hours out seems right? I guess it depends on whose flakes you're talking about, but my math and DC's flakes looks like this: 12Z Euro onset was around hour 100 for DC 00Z Euro should be around 90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Umm, so which is it? 72-80 hours out seems right? Well 0z Monday is 96 hours away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Gotta think some of that coastal precip on the 18z ICON would be frozen, around DCA. Surface goes north of 32 for 1/2 panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 ICON has snow breaking out across the SW part of the forum ~1a and DC by about 4a Sunday. Transfer is down over/near OBX but primary hangs on longer than I want. I don't really know how good ICON thermals are but verbatim it's all snow in DC through Sunday night (~0.5" QPF has already fallen). The coastal basically zig zags a bit as it heads north from OBX to Lewes. I like seeing the south transfer on the ICON. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Ok so realistically tonight’s 0z runs begin uncharted territory for “wheelhouse” territory. 72-96 hours out. Getting close boyz and gals and I feel much better about the Euro in our camp than the GfS ala December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Tucked in to close for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I just woke up briefly. One more night of mids, so I’ll be on the model watch night shift. I must say, to see CIPS coming in that bullish, I’d be beyond ecstatic for all the sub-forum. Traditional caveats aside for these storms, it’s hard to hate the coastal low placement and strength. We don’t have potential for anomalous u-wind vectors to transport warm Atlantic air into a decaying boundary layer. We don’t have HP moving East into Nova Scotia as the low reaches MD/VA latitude. We don’t have a screwball low to the north that causes temp issues later on and instigates a drier NW flow on the western front to cut into precip expansion. If the GFS comes on board tonight, I’d say start prepping the shovels, grab the beer, and get ready for fun. I’ll have more to talk about tonight. But first, back to your regularly scheduled zombie. . 13 6 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 21 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Do you happen to know what “Heavy Precipitation” means below the snow one? Is that just where it’s uncertain which type of precipitation it will be? yes, it accounts for the uncertainty in precip type in the transition zone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: ICON has snow breaking out across the SW part of the forum ~1a and DC by about 4a Sunday. Transfer is down over/near OBX but primary hangs on longer than I want. I don't really know how good ICON thermals are but verbatim it's all snow in DC through Sunday night (~0.5" QPF has already fallen). The coastal basically zig zags a bit as it heads north from OBX to Lewes. I like seeing the south transfer on the ICON. That was what I was looking to see as well...got the transfer...thermals we can (hopefully) ignore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: I just woke up briefly. One more night of mids, so I’ll be on the model watch night shift. I must say, to see CIPS coming in that bullish, I’d be beyond ecstatic for all the sub-forum. Traditional caveats aside for these storms, it’s hard to hate the coastal low placement and strength. We don’t have potential for anomalous u-wind vectors to transport warm Atlantic air into a decaying boundary layer. We don’t have HP moving East into Nova Scotia as the low reaches MD/VA latitude. We don’t have a screwball low to the north that causes temp issues later on and instigates a drier NW flow on the western front to cut into precip expansion. If the GFS comes on board tonight, I’d say start prepping the shovels, grab the beer, and get ready for fun. I’ll have more to talk about tonight. But first, back to your regularly scheduled zombie. . Thanks for all you do mate. Excited to hear your insight after you analyze tonight’s 0z models 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 I don't like it.. it lifts north too far west, and that will only trend greater because of the atmosphere right now. If it snows, it will be in the mid to upper 50s a few days later, one of those deals, if not it will be a warm February. 9 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IceCAPS Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 19 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Storm enters on the Pacific side as a powerhouse and will exit on the Atlantic side as a powerhouse, near same longitude Or latitude in this case. The Powerhouse impact of this storm on both sides of the country is quite incredible and looks to save our winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1 minute ago, IceCAPS said: Or latitude in this case. The Powerhouse impact of this storm on both sides of the country is quite incredible and looks to save our winter! Good catch typing too fast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 18z GFS looks quicker (not by much at all but low is in OK) and more weak through 60 compared to 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 At 75 the low is south of K.C., I think we want it there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS appears weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Let’s try to limit model run play by play to one or two people so there’s no confusion 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 looks about the same to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 GFS at 84 - low in central IL with heavy snow breaking out in SW VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 18z GFS - Decent front end dump saturday night for DC-Balt metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 7 am Sunday WB GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 18z GFS is better on the front end than 12z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27, 2021 Share Posted January 27, 2021 1pm Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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