Hypothetical 240 hour snow

HRRR is a little on the edge of its "range" but it would resolve the higher rates and the possible dynamic cooling offsetting the warm advection aloft better than some of the coarser guidance so it might be on to something.

Yeah I mean look at the soundings for tomorrow morning... most of the profiles have a warm nose that is within about 1 degree (on either side depending on the model) of the 0C line. That will obviously make the difference between sleet and snow, you can't realistically expect any guidance to be good enough to resolve that even a few hours out. much less 24+

I will admit I was wrong about suppression last night... looks like 2-4 inches of snow with another 1-2 inches of sleet tacked on (for my area), I will take it

UKMET looks pretty good with the initial thump from the incomplete thermals I can see with the Pivotal Weather temp fields, and thankfully did not trend south from the pretty dicey 12Z run. If we get 0.5 of water prior to 18Z Thursday we will be good for 3-5 inches, which is my hope for this storm.

Simple is better for us... root for the strong thump, trailing shortwaves that may or not produce is a little dicey. We will do fine with ptypes in that thump, we will go isothermal for long enough to hold on to our snow if we get enough FGEN induced lift/dynamic cooling.

The antithesis of you username is what we all fear, and your observation about the SLP trending further south and weaker only supports that. Those of us near or north of 95 are starting to sweat. To clarify, we have some wiggle room, but we need the south trend to stabilize.

NCEP models with a poor thermal evolution... the NAM is overly aggressive with the 700mb jet/warm advection, while the GFS is for lack of a technical term... just weird with random isothermal layers and phantom regions of ascent and dynamic cooling causing sleet to change back to snow etc.

Suppression is always the fear with this system... look at the RGEM and the UKMET, 2 of the top 5 best performing models and their solutions.

I don't even care about the ptypes on the RGEM, it lost almost half its QPF... and I dont put too much faith in any of the wrap-around stuff, we need to get ours with the initial FGEN thump

RGEM is a step back... hopefully not the start of a trend

This storm has Virginia special written all over it... congrats, to be fair we got our snow last week.

Para looks relatively cold as well... but concerned about suppression now.

Currently Wet Bulb Temps in the Laurel area are 34-35, probably good enough to get snow given that Tw is decreasing with height through the lowest levels... but not going to accumulate much... need to have it go down a few degrees.

They had to change it for technical reasons, not just because they wanted to... Adobe FLASH (which drove the old interface) is not long supported. But I agree it is a worse product... RadarScope or GR2 are far superior but do cost money.

I agree with the consensus here, the Euro is not modeling the CAD setup very well for early next week's system, yeah I could see a non-snow event for sure, but the 00z run had like a true warm sector airmass with 50-60 temps over the Mid-Atlantic... ain't happening with that High in place to start the period.