Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm

[EastCoast NPZ]

2 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

This thing already broke the site! Crazy run for us westerners. And in all honesty the Euro depiction leaves room for an even bigger hit than shown. Nuts. Watch how the precip shield is tugged west at 132 and 138. It is just a sit and spin megastorm. 

Thats a dream scenario as depicted.

[LeesburgWx]

At 00z tonight, are we only 72 hours out from the first flakes?

[chris21]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

At 00z tonight, are we only 72 hours out from the first flakes?

That’s the word on the street.

[SnowDreamer]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

At 00z tonight, are we only 72 hours out from the first flakes?

That's tomorrow. 

[LeesburgWx]

Just now, chris21 said:

That’s the word on the street.

 

Just now, SnowDreamer said:

That's tomorrow. 

Umm, so which is it? 72-80 hours out seems right?

[Solution Man]

Storm enters on the Pacific side as a powerhouse and will exit on the Atlantic side as a powerhouse, near same latitude

[SnowDreamer]

5 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

 

Umm, so which is it? 72-80 hours out seems right?

I guess it depends on whose flakes you're talking about, but my math and DC's flakes looks like this:

12Z Euro onset was around hour 100 for DC

00Z Euro should be around 90

[Baltimorewx]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

 

Umm, so which is it? 72-80 hours out seems right?

Well 0z Monday is 96 hours away...

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Gotta think some of that coastal precip on the 18z ICON would be frozen, around DCA. Surface goes north of 32 for 1/2 panels. 

[nj2va]

ICON has snow breaking out across the SW part of the forum ~1a and DC by about 4a Sunday.  Transfer is down over/near OBX but primary hangs on longer than I want.   I don't really know how good ICON thermals are but verbatim it's all snow in DC through Sunday night (~0.5" QPF has already fallen).  The coastal basically zig zags a bit as it heads north from OBX to Lewes.

I like seeing the south transfer on the ICON.  

[LeesburgWx]

Ok so realistically tonight’s 0z runs begin uncharted territory for “wheelhouse” territory. 72-96 hours out. Getting close boyz and gals and I feel much better about the Euro in our camp than the GfS ala December 

[Interstate]

Tucked in to close for my liking.

[MillvilleWx]

I just woke up briefly. One more night of mids, so I’ll be on the model watch night shift. I must say, to see CIPS coming in that bullish, I’d be beyond ecstatic for all the sub-forum. Traditional caveats aside for these storms, it’s hard to hate the coastal low placement and strength. We don’t have potential for anomalous u-wind vectors to transport warm Atlantic air into a decaying boundary layer. We don’t have HP moving East into Nova Scotia as the low reaches MD/VA latitude. We don’t have a screwball low to the north that causes temp issues later on and instigates a drier NW flow on the western front to cut into precip expansion. If the GFS comes on board tonight, I’d say start prepping the shovels, grab the beer, and get ready for fun.

I’ll have more to talk about tonight. But first, back to your regularly scheduled zombie.


.

[high risk]

21 minutes ago, Rhino16 said:

Do you happen to know what “Heavy Precipitation” means below the snow one? Is that just where it’s uncertain which type of precipitation it will be?

   yes, it accounts for the uncertainty in precip type in the transition zone

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

ICON has snow breaking out across the SW part of the forum ~1a and DC by about 4a Sunday.  Transfer is down over/near OBX but primary hangs on longer than I want.   I don't really know how good ICON thermals are but verbatim it's all snow in DC through Sunday night (~0.5" QPF has already fallen).  The coastal basically zig zags a bit as it heads north from OBX to Lewes.

I like seeing the south transfer on the ICON.  

That was what I was looking to see as well...got the transfer...thermals we can (hopefully) ignore!

[jayyy]

6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

I just woke up briefly. One more night of mids, so I’ll be on the model watch night shift. I must say, to see CIPS coming in that bullish, I’d be beyond ecstatic for all the sub-forum. Traditional caveats aside for these storms, it’s hard to hate the coastal low placement and strength. We don’t have potential for anomalous u-wind vectors to transport warm Atlantic air into a decaying boundary layer. We don’t have HP moving East into Nova Scotia as the low reaches MD/VA latitude. We don’t have a screwball low to the north that causes temp issues later on and instigates a drier NW flow on the western front to cut into precip expansion. If the GFS comes on board tonight, I’d say start prepping the shovels, grab the beer, and get ready for fun.

I’ll have more to talk about tonight. But first, back to your regularly scheduled zombie.


.

Thanks for all you do mate. Excited to hear your insight after you analyze tonight’s 0z models 

[StormchaserChuck!]

I don't like it.. it lifts north too far west, and that will only trend greater because of the atmosphere right now. If it snows, it will be in the mid to upper 50s a few days later, one of those deals, if not it will be a warm February. 

[IceCAPS]

19 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Storm enters on the Pacific side as a powerhouse and will exit on the Atlantic side as a powerhouse, near same longitude

Or latitude in this case.  The Powerhouse impact of this storm on both sides of the country is quite incredible and looks to save our winter!

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, IceCAPS said:

Or latitude in this case.  The Powerhouse impact of this storm on both sides of the country is quite incredible and looks to save our winter!

Good catch typing too fast

[Sernest14]

18z GFS looks quicker (not by much at all but low is in OK) and more weak through 60 compared to 12z Euro

[Solution Man]

At 75 the low is south of K.C., I think we want it there

[Ephesians2]

GFS appears weaker.

[mappy]

Let’s try to limit model run play by play to one or two people so there’s no confusion 

[ryanconway63]

looks about the same to me

[Ephesians2]

GFS at 84 - low in central IL with heavy snow breaking out in SW VA

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[Deck Pic]

18z GFS - Decent front end dump saturday night for DC-Balt metro.

[Weather Will]

7 am Sunday WB GFS

[Eskimo Joe]

18z GFS is better on the front end than 12z.

[Weather Will]

1pm Sunday