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snowman19

February 2021

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3 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

The craziest part of all of this is that these all read off as minor-moderate events at their best...definitely showing how you don’t need big storm after big storm to keep piling on the snow 

This is what I imagine living more inland is like (you live in catskills so you would know) but I think they get less bombs so to speak but more snow threats that pile up over time. 

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3 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

This is what I imagine living more inland is like (you live in catskills so you would know) but I think they get less bombs so to speak but more snow threats that pile up over time. 

reminds me of a less colder version of 93-94, though the big snowstorm at the beginning of the month was larger than anything we got back then

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55 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

reminds me of a less colder version of 93-94, though the big snowstorm at the beginning of the month was larger than anything we got back then

Right, we thought 6-10 was a pile on.....

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2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

reminds me of a less colder version of 93-94, though the big snowstorm at the beginning of the month was larger than anything we got back then

I was thinking that! It has shades of that. Just condense January and February of that winter into this month. That one will always be near and dear to my heart, but this past ten days has given me thoughts of it.

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Through today, February 2021 has seen 19.9" snow in New York City. February has accounted for 16 of the 35 (46%) of monthly cases with 20.0" or more snow. Four of those cases have occurred since 2000. The most recent February with 20.0" or more snow occurred in 2014 when 29.0" was recorded. The last month in which 20.0" or more snow fell was January 2016 when monthly snowfall came to 27.9". February 2021 will very likely reach and then exceed 20.0" monthly snowfall this week. There is some possibility that February's total snowfall could reach 30.0", especially if ongoing blocking persists. Since recordkeeping began in 1869, there are only three cases where monthly snowfall reached 30.0" or more in New York City and two of those cases have occurred since 2000.

A light snow event could affect parts of the region tomorrow. New York City will likely see 1"-2" snow. There will be 2"-4" snow approximately 25-50 miles north and west of New York City. Some embedded pockets of 6" amounts are possible in that area. Some of the areas that largely missed out on Sunday's snowfall should be the beneficiaries of these heavier amounts this time around.

Wednesday should be dry. Afterward, another light snowfall is possible on Thursday and/or Friday.

A frigid air mass will slowly advance eastward and possibly reach the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions around mid-month. There is some uncertainty as to whether this air mass will move directly into the region sending temperatures into the single digits even in New York City or merely pass nearby delivering a glancing blow with single-digit cold avoiding New York City but affecting areas outside of New York City and Newark.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +28.44 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -4.290 today. That is the lowest AO figure since the AO was -4.426 on March 2, 2018.

On February 7 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.121 (RMM). The February 6-adjusted amplitude was 2.145.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the second week of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 22.0" snow.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.5°.

 

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If it did not cloud over tonight some very low temperatures would have resulted. Between the radiational cooling and the snow pack, many rural areas would get into the single digits. Already in the teens in many areas. I currently have 18 degrees.

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Currently 12.2F with ground ice fog here -- a unique, rare phenomenon, induced by the deep, fresh snow cover. It was "freezing fog", but note that typically under 14F it is termed "ice fog" as the water droplets cannot remain in liquid forum.

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5 minutes ago, lee59 said:

If it did not cloud over tonight some very low temperatures would have resulted. Between the radiational cooling and the snow pack, many rural areas would get into the single digits. Already in the teens in many areas. I currently have 18 degrees.

15 here. Over a foot on the ground here in S Huntington. 

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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

it will be interesting to see how cold we can get when this record Arctic high drops down into the CONUS.

 

 

wow that reminds me of some record Siberian cold high pressures....isn't there a record from there of around 31.00 inches?

 

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1 hour ago, Isotherm said:

Currently 12.2F with ground ice fog here -- a unique, rare phenomenon, induced by the deep, fresh snow cover. It was "freezing fog", but note that typically under 14F it is termed "ice fog" as the water droplets cannot remain in liquid forum.

what's this thing we sometimes get- last time I saw it was in 2015 which was also extremely cold in February right to the end of the month.....the skies were crystal clear deep blue, but I saw these tiny snow flakes, they looked like little diamonds, floating down from the sky?  nothing on radar of course

 

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4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Through today, February 2021 has seen 19.9" snow in New York City. February has accounted for 16 of the 35 (46%) of monthly cases with 20.0" or more snow. Four of those cases have occurred since 2000. The most recent February with 20.0" or more snow occurred in 2014 when 29.0" was recorded. The last month in which 20.0" or more snow fell was January 2016 when monthly snowfall came to 27.9". February 2021 will very likely reach and then exceed 20.0" monthly snowfall this week. There is some possibility that February's total snowfall could reach 30.0", especially if ongoing blocking persists. Since recordkeeping began in 1869, there are only three cases where monthly snowfall reached 30.0" or more in New York City and two of those cases have occurred since 2000.

A light snow event could affect parts of the region tomorrow. New York City will likely see 1"-2" snow. There will be 2"-4" snow approximately 25-50 miles north and west of New York City. Some embedded pockets of 6" amounts are possible in that area. Some of the areas that largely missed out on Sunday's snowfall should be the beneficiaries of these heavier amounts this time around.

Wednesday should be dry. Afterward, another light snowfall is possible on Thursday and/or Friday.

A frigid air mass will slowly advance eastward and possibly reach the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions around mid-month. There is some uncertainty as to whether this air mass will move directly into the region sending temperatures into the single digits even in New York City or merely pass nearby delivering a glancing blow with single-digit cold avoiding New York City but affecting areas outside of New York City and Newark.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around February 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.00°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least through meteorological winter.

The SOI was +28.44 today.

Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -4.290 today. That is the lowest AO figure since the AO was -4.426 on March 2, 2018.

On February 7 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.121 (RMM). The February 6-adjusted amplitude was 2.145.

Based on the latest guidance, no significant stratospheric warming event is likely through the second week of February.  

The significant December 16-17 snowstorm during what has been a blocky December suggests that seasonal snowfall prospects have increased especially from north of Philadelphia into southern New England. At New York City, there is a high probability based on historic cases that an additional 20" or more snow will accumulate after December. Since January 1, New York City has picked up 22.0" snow.

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 79% probability that New York City will have a colder than normal February. February will likely finish with a mean temperature near 32.5°.

 

Question is can February reach or exceed 30" of snow or even 40".....we're going to get past 20" this month before Valentine's Day!  Heck, we're not even 10 days into the month yet!

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2 hours ago, lee59 said:

If it did not cloud over tonight some very low temperatures would have resulted. Between the radiational cooling and the snow pack, many rural areas would get into the single digits. Already in the teens in many areas. I currently have 18 degrees.

Doing pretty good out here in Warren County.  Down to 6 degrees currently at Midnight. 

temperature720 (6).png

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14 hours ago, snowman19 said:

That’s actually not a good look. The EPO is raging positive, the PAC floodgates are going to be wide open and you’re going to have Pacific maritime air flooding Canada, all that -NAO would do is trap PAC garbage

The damage has been done.  Over 28 inches of snow this month and the weeklies look good for the next 3-4 weeks.  

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On 2/7/2021 at 1:24 PM, MJO812 said:

High ratio snow on the Euro for Friday 

60202f63a6d71.png

60202fa2f053a.png

60202fe6edc04.png

6020301de40b9.png

 

On 2/7/2021 at 2:17 PM, MJO812 said:

Eps agrees

 

Snowy week ahead

Fail

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Morning thoughts...

At 6:55 am, light snow was falling north and west of New York City. The areas of light snow were somewhat north of where they had been modeled. The light snow will continue to fall in parts of the region,mainly north of New York City little or no snow accumulation (0.5” or less). There will be 1"-3" snow approximately 25-50 miles north and west of New York City. Some embedded pockets of 4" or greater amounts are possible in that area.

Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 30s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 35°

Newark: 36°

Philadelphia: 40°

Tomorrow will be a dry day. 

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48 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

Fail

The snowy week went poof. No snow and then a rainstorm, can’t win em all.

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The next 8 days are averaging 25degs.(19/25), or -9degs.

Month to date is 33.4[-0.4].          Should be 29.2[-5.0] by the 17th.

GFS has lost the single digit lows and its heavy snows.          Other models mostly lost the snow only.       Just 2"-5" of snow over the next 10 days on 0Z runs.

The mid-month 850mb. T's of -25C, are up 13 degrees on the ensembles.

30*(73%RH) here at 6am, overcast.      31* at 7am.    Overnight low was 28*.       35* by 9am.       36* at 10am.      37* at 11am.    35* at Noon.       33* by 3pm.

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7 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, NYC just had the snowiest first week of February on record. It’s really not a big deal now if a small event doesn’t work out. There is still more potential to go with the -AO until further notice.
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Ending Date
Total Snowfall Feb 1 to Feb 7
Missing Count
1 2021-02-07 19.9 0
2 1978-02-07 17.7 0
3 1920-02-07 17.5 0
4 1961-02-07 17.4 0
5 1967-02-07 15.2 0
6 1907-02-07 15.0 0
7 2014-02-07 12.0 0
8 1874-02-07 11.5 0
9 1926-02-07 11.2 0
10 1995-02-07 11.1 0

 

Thanks Bluewave. TBH, was a little disappointed in the ensembles. Although a weakened block remains in place throughout, the temps look to warm which I believe is due to a positive EPO. I feel that it is moving back to the Jan look. 

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On 2/9/2021 at 7:31 AM, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks Bluewave. TBH, was a little disappointed in the ensembles. Although a weakened block remains in place throughout, the temps look to warm which I believe is due to a positive EPO. I feel that it is moving back to the Jan look. 

Who knows, maybe some bonus light snows can still sneak in here on Thursday.

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39 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

The snowy week went poof. No snow and then a rainstorm, can’t win em all.

I'd be surprised with an all out rainstorm given the -5 SD -AO and -NAO

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

I'd be surprised with an all out rainstorm given the -5 SD -AO and -NAO

That would be a kick in the.... If we get this blocking and frigid air and we rain.

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8 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

what's this thing we sometimes get- last time I saw it was in 2015 which was also extremely cold in February right to the end of the month.....the skies were crystal clear deep blue, but I saw these tiny snow flakes, they looked like little diamonds, floating down from the sky?  nothing on radar of course

 

Fairy Dust or Diamond Dust. I love that stuff. I've seen it accumulate an inch or two in the mountains when it's really cold, ultimate fluff. It's the residual moisture freezing out of the air and it tends to happen after a warm(ish) sunny day with really low RH. As the snow surface melts a bit the humidity in the lowest levels shoots way up and then the sun goes down and it's a rapid drop the dust starts to freeze out around 10-15*.

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1 hour ago, greenmtnwx said:

The snowy week went poof. No snow and then a rainstorm, can’t win em all.

Whatever garbage the gfs is showing ain't happening.

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

Fairy Dust or Angel Shit. I love that stuff. I've seen it accumulate an inch or two in the mountains when it's really cold, ultimate fluff. It's the residual moisture freezing out of the air and it tends to happen after a warm(ish) sunny day with really low RH. As the snow surface melts a bit the humidity in the lowest levels shoots way up and then the sun goes down and it's a rapid drop the dust starts to freeze out around 10-15*.

I like it when it's cold and dry and the snow squeaks underfoot. Only happens when it's been cold and dry for a while with powdery snow. I've had that while taking the dog out. 

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Just blew all of our cars off with the leaf blower and the deck also,,,,,,,,looks great out there and I have to admit I really love getting an entire winter season in 3 weeks as this snowing every other day is great !!!!!

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the AO forecast is still going with a -5sd which would be in the magic zone...today was about -4.6sd...I can't imagine cutters with the huge block we have...tmy money is on another blockbuster before its over...

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22 minutes ago, uncle W said:

the AO forecast is still going with a -5sd which would be in the magic zone...today was about -4.6sd...I can't imagine cutters with the huge block we have...tmy money is on another blockbuster before its over...

This big a swing from the exact date last year is unprecedented. The +AO almost made it to +6. Just ridiculous volatility for two consecutive Februaries.

2020  2  9  5.765
2020  2 10  5.910

035397F3-51D1-4769-880E-B86A82ACE4B8.thumb.gif.23922fdba4f451c815dfc92e24b8e600.gif
 

 

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